The Darkest Storm is About to Descend - You Can't Imagine the Carnage

Quote from flytiger:

Anybody got any recommendations on a good overview of the Depression, or depressions in general? Not one written by an Economics Professor. Something a bit lighter, anecdotal, entertaining. I'm already depressed. I don't need to become suicidal.
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This is as about as good as I can get it for you bro, from a guy in my situation:

1. I'm a Broker and IAR. This is a depression for me/us.

2. The average mom and pop really don't know we're headed/in a depression. A great depression?? Don't know. But a depression, yes.

3. It will get worse several more times before better. Can we as a Country survive the "several more times"? Good question being a now bail-out Nation we have become...

Last, don't become suicidal bro! Give this 16 months.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Futures surging.

I think the carnage will have to be put on hold. Krugman and these other doom and gloom losers will be proven wrong this time as they have in the past.
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You swore that you'd leave at Spooz 1250.

You didn't.

Will you leave at 750?

Even if you promised to? Again? After previously breaking your word?

Werd!
 
Quote from LEAPup:

This is as about as good as I can get it for you bro, from a guy in my situation:

1. I'm a Broker and IAR. This is a depression for me/us.

2. The average mom and pop really don't know we're headed/in a depression. A great depression?? Don't know. But a depression, yes.

3. It will get worse several more times before better. Can we as a Country survive the "several more times"? Good question being a now bail-out Nation we have become...

Last, don't become suicidal bro! Give this 16 months.
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LOVE doomsayers...

whats ur degree in ... i read X% amount of brokers dont even have finance degrees i forget the % tho
 
Quote from flytiger:

Anybody got any recommendations on a good overview of the Depression, or depressions in general? Not one written by an Economics Professor. Something a bit lighter, anecdotal, entertaining. I'm already depressed. I don't need to become suicidal.
More...

Hard Times by Studs Terkel (an oral history of the depression)
 
1. We've had a HUGE and criminally irresponsible credit bubble.

2. The credit bubble requires much longer to unwind and likely won't be wrung out of the system until much, much lower.

3. The Gummint is trying to prevent the needed/inevitable correction... likely won't succeed... and will do greater harm to more people.

4. When true recovery comes, it will be from a much lower level and a much slower level of everything... credit, spending, economic activity.

5. It's likely the US economy will suffer malaise at least until the Boomers die off.... that's 30-40 years.
 
Quote from DataCruncher:

gnome, so where you going to stash all your dough in anticipation of all these dire predictions?
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I don't think you can rely upon anything as safe. Even cash has the risk that the Gummint will devalue or destroy it in the process of trying to "save" the economy. Cash would be the best IF we had a great deflation AND cash didn't get destroyed.

Gold seems like a play, but it's got a big deflation risk regardless of what the gold bugs say.

Treasuries would be safest against default risk, but can get whacked very quickly for a big capital loss if the world decides to dump their holdings.

As usual, try to figure it out on the fly and hope you get it right.
 
Quote from gnome:

I don't think you can rely upon anything as safe. Even cash has the risk that the Gummint will devalue or destroy it in the process of trying to "save" the economy. Cash would be the best IF we had a great deflation AND cash didn't get destroyed.

Gold seems like a play, but it's got a big deflation risk regardless of what the gold bugs say.

Treasuries would be safest against default risk, but can get whacked very quickly for a big capital loss if the world decides to dump their holdings.

As usual, try to figure it out on the fly and hope you get it right.
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Been following your posts for a while now (thanks for posting seemingly cogent stuff).

Given that you've probably alredy opened your positions, where are YOU putting your $$$?

Also I noticed that you didn't mention oil, real estate/timberland/etc. above. No futurte there (in your opinion)?
 
Quote from drsteph:

Hard Times by Studs Terkel (an oral history of the depression)
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Saw him speak in 1998 - such an understated, powerful and salt-of-the-earth presence....


...you could literally see the wisdom in his eyes.


Miss ya', studs.
 
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