The Daily Economic Rag (for Ricter)

[Ricter]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Unemployment falling because people dropped off being counted by the BLS does not mark an improvement. I have schooled you before on the U-3 and U-6 methodology that the BLS uses. Must I do it again, or will you yield that saying "unemployment has been improving" is not really accurate?

There are >some< stats that might be considered to be showing improvement, but they are very sketchy. Come on, I've got a lot of time here today and I'm raring to scrap.

Perhaps I should have said, "employment is rising" instead, since it's clear that some dropouts have returned to job searching (and getting).

 

[Gabfly1]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

...Where Obama was (is) mistaken is allowing Bernanke to continue his direction - a direction Volcker has gone on record many times to oppose...

Perhaps I missed that. Could you please provide some credible links where Volcker goes on the record as being at odds with anything Obama or Bernanke has done, or proposed to do, in connection with the economic crisis Obama inherited? Allow me to reiterate that I was not a fan of Bernanke's conduct before the the economic crisis.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

Perhaps I should have said, "employment is rising" instead, since it's clear that some dropouts have returned to job searching (and getting).

Even if you said that, you'd be incorrect. Let's look at a few charts, shall we? Here is a chart from Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. I got this chart off of "The Big Picture Blog".

In 2011 we are back to the same employment levels last seen 1999, 2001 and 2003. Joy. It's sure getting better for everyone. Or maybe you meant that teeny tiny increase since the last dip? Otherwise known as a dead-cat-bounce.

Here's the next chart - more interesting. It's the Labor Participation rate. Because we have to look at employment as a percentage of participation and account for all those people entering the workforce.

Please tell me what about this chart shows you that employment is getting better?

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Even if you said that, you'd be incorrect. Let's look at a few charts, shall we? Here is a chart from Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. I got this chart off of "The Big Picture Blog".


In 2011 we are back to the same employment levels last seen 1999, 2001 and 2003.

You've changed the timeframe.

 

[Ricter]

Quote from achilles28:

To be honest, America procrastinated D-Day since Regan. You're right on, the economy is structurally deficient. But that deficiency has been around since the 80's, and was covered up by increased government borrowing. I think if 08 crashed, we may have recovered by now, in the sense the economy would be growing. But as far as GDP, I can't agree. I think US GDP is at least 18-20% below where we are right now. I don't think Paulson or Bernacke were kidding about an economic Apocalypse. Offshoring and bubble economics has really destroyed a huge chunk of this countrys savings and productive capacity. It's the deficit that's offset the hole and carried the economy, all these years. Exactly the same story playing out in Europe, too.

Good stuff, achilles, here and previously. But please confirm re "I think US GDP is at least 18-20% below where we are right now." You mean, where it would have been if not for the recession?

Edit: this really is a "crisis of capitalism", as some have called it. Capital is largely uninterested in the USA--no money to be made there. What was it Adam Smith said, that he hoped the invisible hand of business would guide them to accept a lower rate of return in their own country, rather than flee abroad?

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Gabfly1:

Perhaps I missed that. Could you please provide some credible links where Volcker goes on the record as being at odds with anything Obama or Bernanke has done, or proposed to do, in connection with the economic crisis Obama inherited? Allow me to reiterate that I was not a fan of Bernanke's conduct before the the economic crisis.

Sorry it took so long. I got a call from a recruiter (i guess maybe the market IS improving, Ricter )

All you have to do is look up the Volcker Plan. It was designed to remove the trading apparatus from Banks and force them to have no ownership in hedge funds and the like. Obama touted it, Bernanke didn't like it. Geithner hated it. Eventually, the "Volcker Plan" which was supposed to end TBTF was sliced, diced and watered down into absolutely nothing. And it was done so by Timmah and the democrat led Senate without so much as a peep by Obama.

 

[kinggyppo]

here is a chart of wages and then adjusted for cpi. We know cpi is bullshit by any measure unless you think a cheap tv is compensation for $4.00 gas, astronomical health care costs, food prices, clothes etc. Let's say the average shmoe makes $3,200 gross ( 40 hrs x 20 per hour) his net is $2,144. Not bad if you are single and live in a studio, add in a mortgage, 2 or 3 kids, insurance and now you get the real picture. I don't even want to think about those in this country that make less than the average wage.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Perhaps you missed the part where I said Food Stamps hit a new, and consecutive, RECORD.

It's the record part that is relative. Once again, you miss the point and compare to Bush. I'm not a Bush supporter, so you'll get no argument from me. But saying "Well, he did it too!" doesn't correct the issue, chief.

Greetings Chairman Tao...

Who would you support for President in 2012? Be specific.

 

[Ricter]

Going back to the character-based explanation for the growth (and perpetuation) of the use of food stamp and other safety net programs, for a moment...

Would this be why many employers have stated in their recent job ads that they will not consider candidates who are not presently employed, ie. "if you don't have a job now, don't ask for this one, because there's something wrong with you"?

 

[BSAM]

Quote from Ricter:

Going back to the character-based explanation for the growth (and perpetuation) of the use of food stamp and other safety net programs, for a moment...

Would this be why many employers have stated in their recent job ads that they will not consider candidates who are not presently employed, ie. "if you don't have a job now, don't ask for this one, because there's something wrong with you"?

I wonder if this should even be legal.