The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

ISM manufacturing today was horrendous. lowest since may 2020. Price Index suffered "The Prices Index registered 43 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the October figure of 46.6 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent)"
The Fed will prolly do their last hike at the next meeting and they are done. The next move after that will be a cut and the economy should sink into recession in early 2023. Depending on how bad it is, they might even give back all their rate hikes we will see but I think a cutting cycle will fuel the next crypto boom
 
Top cryptobets for the next 12-24 months
Solid:
-ETH/BTC/DOGE
Riskier but with more potential:
-Top NFTs like cryptopunks, top artblocks, XCOPY
 
Top cryptobets for the next 12-24 months
Solid:
-ETH/BTC/DOGE
Riskier but with more potential:
-Top NFTs like cryptopunks, top artblocks, XCOPY
Do you not see any hope for things like SOL or ADA or MATIC or FTM?
 
Good token farming opportunity with Friends on Tech
https://www.friend.tech/
You need to download the app, create an account (needs a tiny amount of ETH in the Base Blockchain, which is an Ethereum copy) and engage with accounts there.
Codes to have access to the app
ft-wrmo3mum
ft-vo18ffks
ft-9uvfmre6

This app is very addictive, its basically like a private twitter feed where only the people with shares on that person get access to their content. Feed owner gets a % of the transactions, share owners get the feed plus future appreciation, some people have made a lot already but the airdrop should be a big money maker, as a long you are are engaging daily and being a real user
Im Nando/NandoNFTs there
 
Good token farming opportunity with Friends on Tech
https://www.friend.tech/
You need to download the app, create an account (needs a tiny amount of ETH in the Base Blockchain, which is an Ethereum copy) and engage with accounts there.
Codes to have access to the app
ft-wrmo3mum
ft-vo18ffks
ft-9uvfmre6

This app is very addictive, its basically like a private twitter feed where only the people with shares on that person get access to their content. Feed owner gets a % of the transactions, share owners get the feed plus future appreciation, some people have made a lot already but the airdrop should be a big money maker, as a long you are are engaging daily and being a real user
Im Nando/NandoNFTs there

This reads like a classic pyramid scheme.
 
The BTC ETF looks like a done deal, while we should face some sort of sell the news event around the launch (so, its an opportunity to rebalance portfolios a bit, taking a bit of profit) there are also other catalysts coming that coincide, namely the BTC halving and the Fed cuts, so I dont think it will be the crypto top the first dump after the ETF comes out (its also possible there wont be a dump at all, if the demand coming from the ETF surprises to the upside). In addition, there could also be another catalyst, which is a Trump win in the presidential election. He personally made videos for his NFT project (launched on Ethereum), which provide real-world utility for his fans. It looks likely that he will be more crypto friendly, so his SEC chair appointment and more regulatory clarity could also be supportive (he is favored to win acc to betting sites with around 45% chance vs 33% of Biden). 2024 is looking like a great year for crypto
 
Bitcoin Gold is so interesting because it shows how kinda irrelevant 51% attacks are in Bitcoin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_Gold

It has had many attacks, most exchanges require a huge amount of confirmations in order to credit BTG. Binance require 70 confirmations, and this is a fork of BTC

So, let me try to use different models to see if they explain why this is still worth $1.2B (more than the value of entire companies)

-The currency model
In the currency model, the better the currency the more valuable it is. Well, BTG has almost zero uses as a currency due the huge amount of confirmations it require. The amount of time of have to wait before you are use you really have the coin makes it worse than just about anything out there. No one is developing a lightning network for this one.
So, in this model, it makes no sense for it to be worth $1.2B forcing the person guided by this model to say 'its a bubble'. And somehow these "bubbles" keep lasting forever,
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-gold

-The technology model
The technology is complete garbage and its attacked constantly. Its not secure, transactions can be censored, miners can double spend if the recepients are not careful enough. There are plenty of better technologies out there that are similar (Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, Litecoin) but that have stood the test of time and are more robust
So, this model is also useless, it does not explain the market cap and its enduring value forcing the person to say 'its a bubble' and once again the bubble model will fail as these things have enduring value time and time again

-The bubble model
Its useless at making predictions about the future because it wrong so often, it resembles astrology more than anything else

-The colectible model
Bitcoin gold is a collectible for people that liked Satoshi's idea of 'one CPU one vote', and that dislike Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash as a result. All of the sudden everything is explained. Its not about transactions, no one uses Bitcoin for real purchases (but only to try to make a point), its about the ledger. As a long as you are part of the ledger, you are part of the hoarding of this collectible. 51% attacks cannot undo more than 50-100 blocks so it might take a while for people to get in the ledger (to be able to hoard their collectible) but after that, its really difficult for these attacks to have an effect. There is only so much money that attackers are willing to throw at this. Plus, lots own through exchanges, so they can hoard it without ever having to make a transaction and wait for confirmations.
So people can buy, hoard it and feel like they are continuing the legacy of Satoshi. That they are special and are part of history

I'm finding this model so much more useful than the models I was using before. Now all of the sudden things look a lot clearer
I'm bumping the model that I use to analyze a lot of cryptocurrencies so people that are new to crypto can better understand this space. It was one of my biggest ephiphanies in 2021
 
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I'm bumping the model that I use to analyze a lot of cryptocurrencies so people that are new to crypto can better understand this space. It was one of my biggest ephiphanies in 2021

Do you have thoughts on the future of Chainlink (LINK)?
 
The BTC ETF looks like a done deal, while we should face some sort of sell the news event around the launch (so, its an opportunity to rebalance portfolios a bit, taking a bit of profit) there are also other catalysts coming that coincide, namely the BTC halving and the Fed cuts, so I dont think it will be the crypto top the first dump after the ETF comes out (its also possible there wont be a dump at all, if the demand coming from the ETF surprises to the upside). In addition, there could also be another catalyst, which is a Trump win in the presidential election. He personally made videos for his NFT project (launched on Ethereum), which provide real-world utility for his fans. It looks likely that he will be more crypto friendly, so his SEC chair appointment and more regulatory clarity could also be supportive (he is favored to win acc to betting sites with around 45% chance vs 33% of Biden). 2024 is looking like a great year for crypto

I don't think the establishment / deep state will ever allow Trump to run.
Even if they have to put him behind bars, or liquidate him.
 
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