The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Daal wins the ET most-fun-phrase-award-of-the-week award, issued yearly. You get a cookie and a lousy t-shirt.
Free $$$ airdrop from ENS
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/122925/ethereum-name-service-announces-governance-token-plan
OpenSea is likely to do a free money airdrop in the next 12 months as well
Metamask possibly
How it started:
https://markets.businessinsider.com...s-not-normal-crypto-rally-cryptopunks-2021-10
"Crypto billionaire Mike Novogratz says sky-high NFT prices are not normal and investors should be taking money off the table"
How it's going:
https://markets.businessinsider.com...s-not-normal-crypto-rally-cryptopunks-2021-10
"Crypto billionaire Mike Novogratz says sky-high NFT prices are not normal and investors should be taking money off the table"
How it's going:
Yeah, funny to see that time and again. It doesn't seem like particular skill in forecasting markets got a lot of these "experts" to such a magnitude of wealth. Or if they had a special insight at one point it does not seem to be transferrable.
Are you planning to hold most of your NFTs for years through the market cycles, on the thesis that the early ones will be extremely valuable at some point if NFT becomes used by the majority and embedded in culture? Or will you trade around that thesis somehow?
In my own thinking, I'm strongly expecting another bout of rapid inflows into NFT at some point, while the current crypto hype lasts. I don't think we're close to the end of this cycle yet; with BTC sitting around the old high several years ago. These things always run further than I expect them to. Starting to see neighbors and bankers bring up crypto in conversations. Can only imagine the inflows if crypto keeps rallying and all of those people start to feel genuine fear of missing a paradigm shift.
Are you planning to hold most of your NFTs for years through the market cycles, on the thesis that the early ones will be extremely valuable at some point if NFT becomes used by the majority and embedded in culture? Or will you trade around that thesis somehow?
In my own thinking, I'm strongly expecting another bout of rapid inflows into NFT at some point, while the current crypto hype lasts. I don't think we're close to the end of this cycle yet; with BTC sitting around the old high several years ago. These things always run further than I expect them to. Starting to see neighbors and bankers bring up crypto in conversations. Can only imagine the inflows if crypto keeps rallying and all of those people start to feel genuine fear of missing a paradigm shift.
The only thing that's difficult to plan for is how the landscape will look after some consolidation occurs. I wasn't old enough to be super in-tune with 2000 but I have thought about it a lot for reference. People call it a bubble in hindsight and with 20/20 vision that is easy to see. But I think the market reacted fairly intelligently to it.
If you could sense that the tech/the internet was going to change daily life drastically, the whole basket of pioneers in that space takes on a huge amount of extrinsic value. Buy 10 seemingly junk stocks for "stupid" traditional valuations and if you are able to hit the right online book store that is the best trade you will ever have made.
However, post boom when the tide recedes most of the "junk" will lose it's potential energy and if you didn't find a gem you are out of luck. So that is the danger in my mind of holding NFTs and alt-coins. Should we be looking for a good partial exit in the intermediate term on the next cycle of heavy inflows?
My alt-coin allocation is up 35% in the past two months and that isn't sustainable forever, with most of them having limited actual functionality at this point. Staying too long while the value of this 'extrinsic' value disappears finally is the risk I'm considering lately.
Holding through market cycles usually works out in the long run, but returns are orders of magnitude better if you can pull off buying in the obscurity / bear phase and then unload during euphoric sentiment a few times.
If you could sense that the tech/the internet was going to change daily life drastically, the whole basket of pioneers in that space takes on a huge amount of extrinsic value. Buy 10 seemingly junk stocks for "stupid" traditional valuations and if you are able to hit the right online book store that is the best trade you will ever have made.
However, post boom when the tide recedes most of the "junk" will lose it's potential energy and if you didn't find a gem you are out of luck. So that is the danger in my mind of holding NFTs and alt-coins. Should we be looking for a good partial exit in the intermediate term on the next cycle of heavy inflows?
My alt-coin allocation is up 35% in the past two months and that isn't sustainable forever, with most of them having limited actual functionality at this point. Staying too long while the value of this 'extrinsic' value disappears finally is the risk I'm considering lately.
Holding through market cycles usually works out in the long run, but returns are orders of magnitude better if you can pull off buying in the obscurity / bear phase and then unload during euphoric sentiment a few times.
I agree. Things are turning from 'bitcoin is stupid' to people bragging about owning big bags of crypto, lots of finance guys are doing that
Rare NFTs (1/1s, high end PFPs, rare cards, etc) are a long-term hold for me. I dont care about their prices much as this is a land grab now and they wont be available for sale at almost any price once the land grab is over (this is clearly seen by looking at high end Fidenzas), they will trade like private business where rational prices will rule the day. Paper handing of grails will be extremely rare, the people owning them are literally the smartest people inside of crypto, which already tends to attract pretty smart people. Not that I own super expensive stuff, but I do have premium NFTs in upcoming collections I think will be big (cryptoadz, World of Women)
Floor assets is different, they are lot closer to coins, there is a lot more people owning that stuff and lots are paperhanders, and I will sell them once I think NFTs are peaking, which I dont know when it will be but its possible their ETH prices will peak before the crypto peak. The reason is because crypto is likely to go into a parabolic move up (a bubble) in the last stages and that rise in the fiat price of NFTs is likely to lead to a lot of selling (and that selling can lead to more selling etc)
But if I time a few floor assets wrongly and end up being a bagholder, I'm fine with that. I own stuff that I have conviction on. I bought BTC in early 2018 at $9K and was a bagholder for years, I can do it again no problem
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