The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Daal said:
And the on-chain fud gurus lead their followers to slippage, taxes, anxiety and more
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That's a laughable statement

When bitcoin was $30K,and went lower and many TA were saying $20K is certain, on-chain analytics predicted a supply-shock to $50K

I bought bitcoins

When bitcoin was in the mid $40K, on-chain analytics were saying there's a supply-shock to $60K

I bought bitcoins

I bought over 8 bitcoins total because of my confidence in on-chain analytics


Did you buy bitcoin when it went down over 50% from the ath?

Did you buy bitcoin when it went straight up 50% from the bottom?


johnarb said:
I read "somewhere" that we are going back to over $50K in the next "few weeks"
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johnarb said:
The expectation is that we will go to $60k per btc in the next 2 weeks, but let's say before end of September

On-chain analytics
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l
johnarb said:
That's a laughable statement

When bitcoin was $30K,and went lower and many TA were saying $20K is certain, on-chain analytics predicted a supply-shock to $50K

I bought bitcoins

When bitcoin was in the mid $40K, on-chain analytics were saying there's a supply-shock to $60K

I bought bitcoins

I bought over 8 bitcoins total because of my confidence in on-chain analytics


Did you buy bitcoin when it went down over 50% from the ath?

Did you buy bitcoin when it went straight up 50% from the bottom?
More...
lol yeah, I remember the bs about 'willy saying we might be in a bear market' flip flop town USA. I was consistent all the way through. No, I didnt buy it because I was max long since 17K and all the way through and still am
 
Daal said:
l

lol yeah, I remember the bs about 'willy saying we might be in a bear market' flip flop town USA. I was consistent all the way through. No, I didnt buy it because I was max long since 17K and all the way through and still am
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I sold at $42K when it was going down, per on-chain data

(Willy's email was at $44.x when email was sent that a tidal wave of bitcoins were moving to exchanges)

I bought on the way up and now have more bitcoins in the portfolio

We act on information as presented. It's how we benefit from it
 
Daal said:
BTC about to break ATH, so is Ether. I was right, all the bears were wrong. And the on-chain fud gurus lead their followers to slippage, taxes, anxiety and more. Buy fear, sell hysteria, and this is not hysteria, its actually one of the most sustainable moves I have seen in crypto. Tons of pullbacks and fud, its actually akin to watching paint dry. Wake me up when things double in a month
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Yeah, I just don't get the bearish sentiment. So easy to hold through these drawdowns when you have a grasp on the potential. The ~4K -> 2.8K run in ETH was one of the most pleasant unrealized losses I've ever carried on a big position. Will be great if/when we get an explosive rally with shorts really caught off-guard and another wave of FOMO in-flows.

Also hope I can catch a wave of buying on some of the NFTs I have been accumulating. With them it seems like it's either a slow drift down for a long time, where weak hands or flippers unload to people with conviction on a project, and then short bursts of buying where liquidity gets really thin and price-insensitive buyers just keep lifting.

I am super bullish on NFT complex but like @tsznecki it's hard to get a good read on the best projects to buy like you seem to be quite good at. So I have a handful of NFTs weighted toward things I think should have some longevity. At least these are pretty solidly denominated in ETH so if spot rallies it will be a gain by proxy.
 
Magic said:
Yeah, I just don't get the bearish sentiment. So easy to hold through these drawdowns when you have a grasp on the potential. The ~4K -> 2.8K run in ETH was one of the most pleasant unrealized losses I've ever carried on a big position. Will be great if/when we get an explosive rally with shorts really caught off-guard and another wave of FOMO in-flows.

Also hope I can catch a wave of buying on some of the NFTs I have been accumulating. With them it seems like it's either a slow drift down for a long time, where weak hands or flippers unload to people with conviction on a project, and then short bursts of buying where liquidity gets really thin and price-insensitive buyers just keep lifting.

I am super bullish on NFT complex but like @tsznecki it's hard to get a good read on the best projects to buy like you seem to be quite good at. So I have a handful of NFTs weighted toward things I think should have some longevity. At least these are pretty solidly denominated in ETH so if spot rallies it will be a gain by proxy.
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Yes. I only have done well in one bet, the toadenza which I still hold. Cryptoadz matched the Yeastydough framework because it was a breakthrough project, the first public domain characters to go viral. Public domain means the entire world can promote the characters but only the NFT holders accrue profits. I even mentioned to Yeasty and he bought a bunch at 1 ETH, but the rest of my nfts I'm still waiting for a payoff.

But the neat thing is that NFTs are so niche and I'm already up more on that toadz than the entire value of all the other nfts i own by a lot. But for the first month it was difficult, all I was doing was watching people make a lot of money and wonder why my stuff wasn't rallying. Thats why sticking with breakthroughs is so important, they rally a lot more and they are super scarce because they are the first and contributed a lot to the space, so they have a historical monopoly. Plus, I can only invest so much ETH. I guess the non-breakthroughs can be flipped and some people do pretty well with that (pranksy), but it seems that I'm always late for great mints. I still make some boneheaded mistakes but they are usually pretty small. Here are some follows on this space for people wanting to learn

https://twitter.com/izebel_eth
https://twitter.com/DeezeFi
https://twitter.com/garyvee
https://twitter.com/LeonidasNFT
https://twitter.com/punk6529
https://twitter.com/iamDCinvestor
https://twitter.com/krybharat
https://twitter.com/SfTappy
https://twitter.com/DoughYeasty

But I disagree with some of the skeptics that say that because you go to do bottom-up research, its a pass. Startup investing was restricted from retail all our lifes, now we get the chance of invest in the next monalisa/mickey mouse and the right decision is to close our eyes? I say get involved, if im right a lot of the top stuff that meets the framework is going to do very well anyway (punks, apes, toadz, wow, fidenzas, xcopy, curio, doge nft). Its like investing in facebook after it already started to get traction, yes you are paying up vs the angel investors but you will do pretty well. Heck, even those that bot the IPO did well
Its a funny thing but I'm starting to consider that buying after it gets expensive, its when its actually cheap, because the chance of failure has gone down while the potential is still exponential

Lots of pump and dumps and even the above influencers will do funny things from time to time, so one has to have discipline and be very selective. ETH is very valuable and one mistake I made was buying too many cheap things early on. Now I try to stick with more premium stuff or mints of stuff that I think its groundbreaking. Most days I dont buy anything but just learn from old timers from this space
 
But for those that are lazy, here is a quick way to get exposure to NFTs that do nothing the rest of the time:
Follow the top OGs in the space and see which NFTs they keep mentioning over and over at the ones they think are the most likely to be great bets, most likely it will be the same names (punks, autoglyphs, fidenzas, xcopys, etc)

Then buy fractions of those NFTs at NFTX or Fractional.art or full units if you can afford. Then be patient, lots of people will be making a killing flipping crap but you got to stick with it.
Sell when there is peak euphoria , buy back during huge panics (so pretty much like BTC or ETH), that is more of an art than science but its not too hard if you dont drink the kool-aid or get scared by fud campaigns

Being more active like I'm doing, you can outperform that and make life changing money because you get in when its super cheap but it also requires more work (in addition to being more risky). But the lazy way is not a bad way to play it for some
I rather be active because its fun to be involved in this space but having a passive approach is best for those that dont have the time or the inclination to get involved
 
Great stuff, I will check out those twitter links. That is kind of what I defaulted to; buying things that are already off the ground. There's more of a raw debit to lose if a project gets crushed, but market cap itself is kind of a stabilizing factor. Safer bet expecting teams that have already successfully attracted a lot of capital and sustained their project to keep doing so.

I already allocated more than I planned initially to NFT, but hard not to as you learn more. I am considering a bored ape now since they mentioned creating a token in Q1, and a lot of the eco-system stuff with a tangible yield for users has generated a lot of interest recently. But that will really put me overweight in NFTs.

Anyway seems like my current method results in me getting in on the tail end of the latest hype cycle, not top tick during the excitement, but close enough to the volume surge that the drift down continues for a while after I enter. But if we cycle upwards even 1-2 more times the entry prices on everything will be long gone if the in-flows continue, like has been the case with every range in spot crypto for the past few years.
 
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