The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

I bought three curio cards for ~15 ETH. That’s the project that was easiest for me to understand since it has ties to the traditional concept of art, and the project is so early in the NFT space. A little easier to connect to for me over the pure meme ones like Bored Apes, and as a less tech savvy crowd slowly gets exposed to cryptos hopefully the project will continue to sustain a bid.

Was on the fence between just blindly allocating to a few of the top market cap projects but didn’t end up going that way. If I see another 1-2 projects that really make sense to me I will buy in to those as well. Feel a little out of my depth trying to forecast these things but I like the fact that the initial buy-in is relatively low and the price volatility is so high. The cards I bought are already down like 50% from top print on the Visa news. If positive news events keep coming these can easily go up by multiples and maybe I will slowly unload into the illiquid FOMO rallies.
 
Magic said:
I bought three curio cards for ~15 ETH. That’s the project that was easiest for me to understand since it has ties to the traditional concept of art, and the project is so early in the NFT space. A little easier to connect to for me over the pure meme ones like Bored Apes, and as a less tech savvy crowd slowly gets exposed to cryptos hopefully the project will continue to sustain a bid.

Was on the fence between just blindly allocating to a few of the top market cap projects but didn’t end up going that way. If I see another 1-2 projects that really make sense to me I will buy in to those as well. Feel a little out of my depth trying to forecast these things but I like the fact that the initial buy-in is relatively low and the price volatility is so high. The cards I bought are already down like 50% from top print on the Visa news. If positive news events keep coming these can easily go up by multiples and maybe I will slowly unload into the illiquid FOMO rallies.
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I think curio pumps as it gets closer to the Christies auction on Oct 1, and then perhaps sell-offs a bit (sell the news) but long-term, I think this is a pretty good project because its still affordable for retail (unlike Punks), it has historical relevance (first art project on Ethereum), there is a card for everyone and Christies added big credibility by doing an auction of the full-set.
Here is a tip: avoid paying the offer on Curio cards, always put out a bid (which, ironically, Open Sea calls 'Offers') on the other side. You can save quite a bit of money doing that as some desperate holders will sell out for ETH, so they can chase new projects
 
Yeah, I was a little aggressive on the bid but I did rest my orders and got hit eventually. Interesting to watch how a hyper illiquid market moves. Seems like the most accurate mark is a little skewed toward the best ask rather than the midpoint of the spread. You can almost see the sentiment at work; news spike rapidly raises price because the book is so thin, then sellers get a little more motivated over time to unload once price starts coming down.

Having no model for fair value makes it hard to think how to trade these at edge aside from trying to position around the news cycles. So at the moment it’s just interesting to watch but I know some people are able to extract good value from inefficient markets so that’s something in the back of my mind. Like should I build an inventory of some of the cheaper cards and try to trade around the order book, and fade dislocations from the general price:supply count ratios or is that getting way too far into the weeds here. Probably a long term hold is the best strategy on a few good projects.
 
Daal said:
More competition for DOGE
https://fractional.art/vaults/0xbaac2b4491727d78d2b78815144570b9f2fe8899

Now its the actual original photo as NFT with an even smaller supply then "fiesty doge" and Dogecoin. 17B total, no issuance.
This is WAY more likely to be a better investment than Dogecoin, which is complete garbage being promoted by sloppy thinkers. This is a scarce piece of one of the greatest crypto memes ever
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The more I think about it the more I add to my DOG holdings (in the auction going on right now)
https://pleasr.mirror.xyz/7hpdJOWRzQx2pmCA16MDxN2FiA3eY6dwcrnEtXKnCJw

This might turn out to be one of my best investments ever. It might flippen Dogecoin (100x return or more in 10 years) or if it all fails, it will be a relevant NFT priced in ETH. A liquid one as well
I keep trying to understand what am I missing but I'm not seeing, only thing that worries me a bit is the fact that the DAO owns 55% of the token. So its a pretty big whale but Elon has complained about similar things for Dogecoin. Plus, I bet they will have to sell more and more over the years. Plus the DAO might airdrop governance tokens to DOG owners at some point

It sounds insane, I know, but all my human behavior models are telling me to buy the fuck out of this thing. I just dont see how the economics of dogecoin will work out long-term and this has much superior economics and it is doge pretty much. I think all the promoters of Doge will help the value to accrue to DOG tokens, so this will be like a mini-bitcoin for people that like dogs, funny stuff and Musk.

The auction is likely to endup valuing this at $200-$400M, which is too little vs Dogecoin $36B. DOG to the fucking moon
 
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Daal said:
The more I think about it the more I add to my DOG holdings (in the auction going on right now)
https://pleasr.mirror.xyz/7hpdJOWRzQx2pmCA16MDxN2FiA3eY6dwcrnEtXKnCJw

This might turn out to be one of my best investments ever. It might flippen Dogecoin (100x return or more in 10 years) or if it all fails, it will be a relevant NFT priced in ETH. A liquid one as well
I keep trying to understand what am I missing but I'm not seeing, only thing that worries me a bit is the fact that the DAO owns 55% of the token. So its a pretty big whale but Elon has complained about similar things for Dogecoin. Plus, I bet they will have to sell more and more over the years. Plus the DAO might airdrop governance tokens to DOG owners at some point

It sounds insane, I know, but all my human behavior models are telling me to buy the fuck out of this thing. I just dont see how the economics of dogecoin will work out long-term and this has much superior economics and it is doge pretty much. I think all the promoters of Doge will help the value to accrue to DOG tokens, so this will be like a mini-bitcoin for people that like dogs, funny stuff and Musk.

The auction is likely to endup valuing this at $200-$400M, which is too little vs Dogecoin $36B. DOG to the fucking moon
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If my super bull scenario doesn't play out, at the very least, as people adopt more and more NFTs, this would rise vs Dogecoin. 20% of Doge value doesnt seem far fetched. That would be a 10x vs my expected price from the current auction
 
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I bet this guy invests better than 90%+ of CFA's in the world
 
Its hard to respect hedge fund managers (or "wizards") when almost every top retail crypto trader/investor that I get to know are smarter, harder working, more in tune with current times than them. These 20 and 30 something year olds are the next wizards, the old wizards are too rich and lazy to create further wealth to their investors
 
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