The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Daal said:
See that's I studied Bitcoin gold BTG, because it does not have a significant hash rate and has been 51% attacked many times. Yet, it is still marching on and it is worth more than $1B. I believe BTC needs far less hash rate than people think. This isn't money, people dont use it for daily transactions (but only to pretent it is money).

Its also its not ground breaking technology, it was in 2009, now its quickly becoming old and stale. Its updates come as often as the Olympic games, its hard to do anything to make it better.

What this is a historical ledger of the first time there was a tech that enabled people to fight back against governments taking people's freedoms away, now the peasants are striking back. In order to secure that ledger it doesnt take much, the fact that BTG is accepted after 50 confirmations and people still trust on it shows that even if Bitcoin were to lose a shiton of hash power, you would still be able to sneak in the Ledger after waiting for a few hours.

I'm not saying a permanent drop of 90% in hash wouldn't lead to a bear market, it would but eventually people start to buy it back up again because even if the market goes to 6 confirmations to 20 needed, it would still be more convienient and easier to hide than gold, it would still have its historical value, etc, etc.

In a way, the higher cost of maintaining Bitcoin is a fee for its premium service vs Gold. In any event, its really hard to drop the hash rate a massive amount in a permanent basis because people will fight back. They can change the hash algorithims to allow people to mine at home, etc. There are a lot of ways people can still make sure their Action Comics #1 is taken care of, they wont let it go easily, its their crown jewel
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A big drop in hashrate though assumes that you are still in an area that has access to the internet. Of course it might be a doomsday scenario, but in many countries that are using crypto, I imagine the internet is sparse. Sure you could wait it out for a few days or weeks until you get a signal, but nevertheless, you're 100% reliant on something you can't control. So hashrate isn't exactly the worry, but more so access to your BTC and a willing person to accept it. If they know that transacting in BTC might get harder given some major event, they might choose to not accept it.

I imagine that at one point in the future, perhaps paper bills, coins and precious metals might might trade at a premium because of some major hit to the digital infrastructure. Sure it will eventually be fixed, but there could be some crazy few weeks.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1426567035627065345
Bitcoiners are aware of Bitcoin's float problem, but they cant do anything about it. "Educating" people wont do jack. And they better not try to do anything technical about it. The best PR in the world for BTC will be to have it priced highly on websites and quotation boards. It makes it more of a status symbol to own Bitcoin and makes the 21M units seem more prestigious. That's one of the advantages it has over gold, gold is priced too low. People know it is worth something but its not a crazy price that gets all the headlines like BTC, so less status

Once again, BTC has a premium service on many attributes. As institutions come in, Bitcoin will be the store of value of the elites, retail will have to find something else to feel comfortable with. Not only because of the price but also because BTC fees have nowhere to go but up
 
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I'm reading a great book about the monetary history of Brazil and the author makes a good point that when a country cuts 0's off its currency (after significant inflations) that is wrong because it removes the history of inflationary episodes of the currency. It erases all that data to the public that becomes obvious when you look at 1Billion notes etc. It makes that bad currency look cleaner.

The high Bitcoin quotation price is like this but on the opposite direction. Its priced so highly that it displays the history of sucess of it, of the adoption, etc. Especially when the public learns that one day it was worth less than 1 cent. "There must be something good to it to have travelled such a long journey" they might think
 
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Fascinating stuff
 
I have come to realize that fungibility is a silly concept, it more confuses than clarifies anything. Some commentators make the distintiction between a fungible token like BTC and non fungible tokens like a Picasso. So you would think that a fungible token would be more akin to money and non fungible to collectables. But that is wrong, people dont think on those terms, they aren't computers

I have now learned that people think in terms of scarcity, they think "Is this scarce? If so, I think I will get some, in case others realize that too". NBA top shots are fungible, there are 500 of the same shot for a lot of them. Rare stamps and coins have hundreds of the same thing. Even Action Comics #1 there are between 50-100 out there. But people think they are scarce, so they buy and hoard it. If it is not scarce, people are not that excited to buy it, they dont hoard it very much, it has much higher velocity in people's hands

Whether something is fungible or not doesnt matter, just because it is fungible, it doesnt mean it isn't scarce as fuck. And scarcity is more of a function of the total supply of units vs the size of the population that are interested in those units

Our resident bitcoiner johnarb is adding more units to his collection
"I'm addicted to stacking sats

I just purchased 1 more bitcoin (btc) average price $46.8k"

Funny how he did not purchase 0.5 or 0.93 BTC. Just the other day I did a similar thing, I had a fraction of an ETH in one of my stashes and I purchased more to complete a full unit. It bothered me to see a broken number on something I like

So if you think of BTC in units, all of the sudden its scare as fuck, even though it is fungible. The total supply of units is 21M and the size of the population that are interested in those units potentially is:

A) All people that like to collect things in the world. That includes gold bugs, art/stamp/coin/artifact/other object collectors

B) All of A) plus people that need to protect wealth from property rights violations/inflation from governments, like citizens of countries that are not very stable like China, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina plus many more (maybe all?) given that governments have gained power over people due to Covid19 and debt levels/money printing has increased

C) All the people in the world that like to accumulate wealth. Essentially all rich people in the world

Which one is correct, A) B) or C)? I think it is B) but I'm its possible that it is C), especially if Bitcoin becomes a status symbol (like Gucci bags or Rolex watches) when the price gets really high
 
https://www.businessinsider.com/mar...500-meme-strongest-medium-exchange-2021-8?amp
Classic DOGE, it doesnt feel like a scarce thing that you must get it so one of the biggest pumpers own little. Same thing with Elon and Rauol Pal, they all own very little as % of their crypto assets and admit as much. This fatal flaw in DOGE makes me think this has no place in a crypto portfolio at all, the promoters of it are just sloppy thinkers who have not figured it out what this is, a crypto collectible with too much supply for limited market
 
NoahA said:
To be honest, I think this is an excellent point. Gold exists as is, independent of anything else. BTC only exists if there is a network ready to verify what you have upon you wanting to use or transfer it.

With BTC, you're not only relying on other people wanting to give you something for it, just like gold of course, but you're also relying on the huge infrastructure being operational to make it happen, unlike gold. Perhaps when you need BTC the most, because of some cataclysmic event, it will be least available. You already see BTC mining being outlawed in some countries because they deem that electricity needs to go to a better use.

Now granted, in this digital age with so much computing power and redundancy, it seems unimaginable for such an event to happen that would prevent you from accessing your BTC, but we can all think of many scenarios where such a thing might happen. Going forward, the more we rely on technology, the greater there is a chance that it will fail us.
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What if tomorrow an asteroid hits Earth and all humans are dead? What's the value of gold then?

Your entire bearish argument is a what if tail scenario. You don't even have a legit argument against BTC.
 
NoahA said:
A big drop in hashrate though assumes that you are still in an area that has access to the internet. Of course it might be a doomsday scenario, but in many countries that are using crypto, I imagine the internet is sparse. Sure you could wait it out for a few days or weeks until you get a signal, but nevertheless, you're 100% reliant on something you can't control. So hashrate isn't exactly the worry, but more so access to your BTC and a willing person to accept it. If they know that transacting in BTC might get harder given some major event, they might choose to not accept it.

I imagine that at one point in the future, perhaps paper bills, coins and precious metals might might trade at a premium because of some major hit to the digital infrastructure. Sure it will eventually be fixed, but there could be some crazy few weeks.
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The US has sparse internet? The EU too? Oh East Asia must have sparse internet too.

You can't even keep your bullshit straight.
 
NFTs were invented 60 years ago!
Just came across this series of videos that are incredible


And its amazing that this artist came to the same conclusion as me, Bitcoin is an NFT, or "a feeling" "an idea of financial value that has no reference to the material world" as he puts it
The Klein collectors that burned their receipts, show that value goes beyond the material world, its can also be an experience, a moment of history
The world is a lot more complex than financeers out of New York make it seem like, artists like Mitchell Chan understand more about how people value things than finance professors like Aswath Damodaran. Life is about both sides of the brain, the logical side and the emotional side, not just the logical side like finance people think it is. And its not a surprise that people that dont get it, like Taleb, are completly insentive uncreative inhumane people that only has logic down (and even then, with many flaws)
 
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