The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

johnarb said:
No, I did not ditch that plan. I will hodl 10 BTC's through the bear market

I have another 3.5 btc's on exchanges that will be sold, but I am not convinced we are in a bear market

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I de-risked as planned as I told you on previous posts and you told me I won't do it because I did not so in the past bear markets

I remember you said I won't sell at lower prices from the top as I would be a victim of price anchoring and I told you I'm built differently

I gave an example with Badger which I sold not at the top but on the way down, Badger was a 600% profit position that I started selling on the way down when it was 400% and going lower

Badger was only an example, there were many others

I looked at my paycheck every 2 weeks, extrapolated to 1 year, and so far, I've sold enough of the portfolio for significantly more than 10 years worth. Taxes will be painful next year, but so be it

You're not being a dick. At the end of the day, I have to be responsible for my family and no one else

If you want to criticize on both sides and all sides, that is your choice, this is only a message board

[edit: forgot to mention there's enough gaslighting on ET to provide power for bitcoin mining for a long time :D ]
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Congrats on not being a victim of price anchoring and building a non-crypto stash, looks like your risk management is improving.
With regards to the 10 BTCs, you feel comfortable holding 10 BTC in a hot wallet in Bitcoin core? Looks like you are running Ubuntu, which is great but I personally wouldn't be comfortable with coins in a hot wallet. Especially if the IP's of your node are being publicly broadcast to other nodes

With regards to alt coins, have you compared your performance vs if you just had bought it all on ETH instead? Because I'm starting to suspect it could be a superior choice. I broke down Dan's Morehead performance in this journal a few months back and he could not beat BTC in his alt coin and ICO funds, and he gets special deals all the time. We all remember our 10xs, but if there is a dud for every 10x, then the return gets cutdown. Plus, its a lot more work and your risk management needs to be on point, otherwise they just collapse 95%+ and never come back. So I wonder if its not better to just long ETH+BTC instead
 
Daal said:
Congrats on not being a victim of price anchoring and building a non-crypto stash, looks like your risk management is improving.
With regards to the 10 BTCs, you feel comfortable holding 10 BTC in a hot wallet in Bitcoin core? Looks like you are running Ubuntu, which is great but I personally wouldn't be comfortable with coins in a hot wallet. Especially if the IP's of your node are being publicly broadcast to other nodes

With regards to alt coins, have you compared your performance vs if you just had bought it all on ETH instead? Because I'm starting to suspect it could be a superior choice. I broke down Dan's Morehead performance in this journal a few months back and he could not beat BTC in his alt coin and ICO funds, and he gets special deals all the time. We all remember our 10xs, but if there is a dud for every 10x, then the return gets cutdown. Plus, its a lot more work and your risk management needs to be on point, otherwise they just collapse 95%+ and never come back. So I wonder if its not better to just long ETH+BTC instead
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Not Ubuntu but you're referring to gnome DE. I do run a lot of linux machines and most of them are Ubuntu's. Re: privacy, socks proxy to a VPS in Asia

Yea, unfortunately for me, my crypto portfolio tracker keeps track of the portfolio equivalence in btc and eth

There are many times the btc equivalence is on an uptrend, and luckily the past few months, I was gaining btc equivalence, in btc maxi language, stacking sats

However, the reverse is not true on eth equivalence. I coulda, woulda, shoulda, during the defi summer of last year, converted all cryptos holdings to ~2k of Eth or even ~1.5K eth all throughout eoy 2020

Even most of this year, I was mostly above 1200 ETh equivalence until Eth broke out like crazy,and I went below the 1000 equivalence and even 500 equivalence

I should have been stacking eth, not sats

Absolutely in my case the best choice was to hodl Eth in a 50/50 allocation with btc, that would have been the best risk/reward for me being a crypto believer

After watching the youtube stream of crypto twitter traders (on a thread I started in cryptocurrencies forum) and their admiration of eth, I am planning to pick up eth, but gunshy to do any long trades from cash as not sure what to make of this bear market, whether it's short term or a repeat of past cyccles

I found a workaround on eth fees and dex fees by using BSC/pancakeswap for trading out. This works on Eth or any BSC pegged token
 
johnarb said:
However, the reverse is not true on eth equivalence. I coulda, woulda, shoulda, during the defi summer of last year, converted all cryptos holdings to ~2k of Eth or even ~1.5K eth all throughout eoy 2020

Even most of this year, I was mostly above 1200 ETh equivalence until Eth broke out like crazy,and I went below the 1000 equivalence and even 500 equivalence

I should have been stacking eth, not sats
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Is this true even if you remove BTC from your crypto portfolio?
 
johnarb said:
Not Ubuntu but you're referring to gnome DE. I do run a lot of linux machines and most of them are Ubuntu's. Re: privacy, socks proxy to a VPS in Asia

Yea, unfortunately for me, my crypto portfolio tracker keeps track of the portfolio equivalence in btc and eth

There are many times the btc equivalence is on an uptrend, and luckily the past few months, I was gaining btc equivalence, in btc maxi language, stacking sats

However, the reverse is not true on eth equivalence. I coulda, woulda, shoulda, during the defi summer of last year, converted all cryptos holdings to ~2k of Eth or even ~1.5K eth all throughout eoy 2020

Even most of this year, I was mostly above 1200 ETh equivalence until Eth broke out like crazy,and I went below the 1000 equivalence and even 500 equivalence

I should have been stacking eth, not sats

Absolutely in my case the best choice was to hodl Eth in a 50/50 allocation with btc, that would have been the best risk/reward for me being a crypto believer

After watching the youtube stream of crypto twitter traders (on a thread I started in cryptocurrencies forum) and their admiration of eth, I am planning to pick up eth, but gunshy to do any long trades from cash as not sure what to make of this bear market, whether it's short term or a repeat of past cyccles

I found a workaround on eth fees and dex fees by using BSC/pancakeswap for trading out. This works on Eth or any BSC pegged token
More...


If we are in the bear non-dominant leg of the larger bull cycle, next monthly bar will print a HL with decreasing volume. If it prints a LL on increasing volume the bear leg will be dominant and therefore the bull is over. From the bull perspective, the best we'd get is a reaction bounce and an attempt at reclaiming a HH in the monthly bars over the summer.

I would expect more of a trading range for the bull to transition into a bear but anything can happen.

Stacking ETH prior to ETH2 is THE trade. As a triple point asset, it has a strong narrative.
 
Sprout said:
If we are in the bear non-dominant leg of the larger bull cycle, next monthly bar will print a HL with decreasing volume. If it prints a LL on increasing volume the bear leg will be dominant and therefore the bull is over. From the bull perspective, the best we'd get is a reaction bounce and an attempt at reclaiming a HH in the monthly bars over the summer.

I would expect more of a trading range for the bull to transition into a bear but anything can happen.

Stacking ETH prior to ETH2 is THE trade. As a triple point asset, it has a strong narrative.
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Thank you on those chart analysis!

I posted a video of a girl on YouTube doing charts on cryptos in the CC forum, have seen some of her other videos. I'm not a chartist, but her explanations make it easy for me to visualize, maybe because her voice is reassuring and she comes off as trustworthy

Yea, I'm too distracted by fees on Eth and my plan was to come back later when the time to a resolution on fees is near, but by then, Eth could be at a much higher price so it makes total sense to stack Eth now and on pull backs

Cashed out all my (erc-20) tokens last week as part of de-risking and that got me into the trenches on how to work around the Eth fees and horrendous Uniswap fees by trading at CeFi exchange or BSC Dex and using bridge for cashout to local wallets and eventually to fiat

TL;dr, I have exit visibility even on Eth and erc-20 tokens which was my main concern in the past of feeling I'll be trapped on them unless taking a big hit on slippage and fees which got me to unstack Eth

PS: above does not work on pump and dump Eth tokens like Shiba Inu
 
I believe the flippening is 100% happening but that doesn't mean we won't see a repeat of 2018 in crypto.

ETH2 is a game changer but BTC could post much better returns prior to ETH2 going live.

Point is: being a maxi is not optimal. Pick your times to be a maxi.
 
During the financial crisis and Covid, often there would be annoucenemnt of huge monetary stimulus and the short-term price action in stocks was negative, stocks would pop and drop, make a new low and people would talk about how 'its not working', eventually of course, it worked like magic and it was a great entry point. I wonder if the Musk thing and the China mining ban isn't similar, long-term its likely to be good for BTC, but short-term it leads to the perception that it is bad
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chin...andon-ship-ahead-of-incoming-crypto-crackdown

China miners are abondoning ship, that's great, the profitability of non-chinese miners will increase. The difficulty of the network will readjust, fees will readjust. There might be an overall loss os hashing power but the network is so secure that it wont matter, a 51% attack is still super difficult. One of my risk scenarios for BTC was a 51% attack by the CCP in China, they could get everyone on the table and say 'attack BTC or you all will be arrested'. Now that scenario is starting to go away. I mean, Xi said last year they want to be carbon neutral by 2060, this is probably related to that policy. And its great for BTC security and the ESG concerns
 
tsznecki said:
I believe the flippening is 100% happening but that doesn't mean we won't see a repeat of 2018 in crypto.

ETH2 is a game changer but BTC could post much better returns prior to ETH2 going live.

Point is: being a maxi is not optimal. Pick your times to be a maxi.
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I'm in the process of acquiring Eth again. Anything below $3K is good entry point for Eth, imho
 
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