The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

johnarb said:
Guess what? on-chain analysis of WW says don't BTFD, whales are selling, coins are being transferred to the exchanges, review my 2 posts

Exactly what on-chain analysis is for
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johnarb said:
In case you missed the forest for the trees, WW's on-chain analytics may suggest we are entering a bear market
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johnarb said:
WW still believes the bull market is not over, but this is why I subscribe, now, more than ever, it is very important to continuously monitor on-chain movements on when this selling by the whales will end or if it will continue and all rallies will be sold
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So it looks like WW doesnt believe his own analysis. Also 'may suggest'? What is that? Sounds like he learned he run a newsletter from David Rosenberg. Here is my newsletter: we may be in a bear market, or we may moon. That will be $50 thanks

Also, this whole thing about having 'personal problems' and having to take a break reeks of a lie. We are in an uncertain time and he hides? I know what personal problem he is having, he is stressed because he doesnt know what will happen next and his entire identity is tied to the image that he can forecast prices and he doesnt want that shattered by a mistake. He also has a business tied to that

This whole on-chain thing seems like someone showing a bunch of photographs of people and saying 'according to my analysis, the people in this photo are standing still' or 'people are moving in this photo', it doesnt say what these people will do next, whether they will move, stand still, sit down or dance. To antecipate prices it doesnt do much, for that its more a matter of market psychology rather than blockchain info
 
Daal said:
So it looks like WW doesnt believe his own analysis. Also 'may suggest'? What is that? Sounds like he learned he run a newsletter from David Rosenberg. Here is my newsletter: we may be in a bear market, or we may moon. That will be $50 thanks

Also, this whole thing about having 'personal problems' and having to take a break reeks of a lie. We are in an uncertain time and he hides? I know what personal problem he is having, he is stressed because he doesnt know what will happen next and his entire identity is tied to the image that he can forecast prices and he doesnt want that shattered by a mistake. He also has a business tied to that

This whole on-chain thing seems like someone showing a bunch of photographs of people and saying 'according to my analysis, the people in this photo are standing still' or 'people are moving in this photo', it doesnt say what these people will do next, whether they will move, stand still, sit down or dance. To antecipate prices it doesnt do much, for that its more a matter of market psychology rather than blockchain info
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lmao, oh boy....

I did not say personal problems
emoji_u1f92d.png


[edit: he announced the break 2 months ago, anyway I've seen it a while back]

You do you, Daal, you'll be ok, I'm not arguing with you anymore


Willy Woo does not need the subscription income, it's more of a community service, imho
upload_2021-5-20_13-37-48.png
 
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If you measure BTC cycles from the previous tops to the tops of that cycle, I was able to identify the following cycles

upload_2021-5-20_17-36-28.png


At 3.34x, this would be the weakest bull cycle ever. And I would think that a weak cycle would have a smaller bear market because it deviated less from whatever fair value it should have (in other words, there was less of "bubble" or excess)
4.89x was the previous weakest bull market, that lead to a 84% drop. But in that case the price had massively deviated from stock to flow and from stock to flow FX
In this case, prices simply tracked that model. So to me, a 53% drop is plenty of a bear market
 
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Daal said:
If you measure BTC cycles from the previous tops to the tops of that cycle, I was able to identify the following cycles

View attachment 259318

At 3.34x, this would be the weakest bull cycle ever. And I would think that a weak cycle would have a smaller bear market because it deviated less from whatever fair value it should have (in other words, there was less of "bubble" or excess)
4.89x was the previous weakest bear market, that lead to a 84% drop. But in that case the price had massively deviated from stock to flow and from stock to flow FX
In this case, prices simply tracked that model. So to me, a 53% drop is plenty of a bear market
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Another difference between that weak cycle (2013 top) and this cycle is the Mayer ratio, which is the ratio between the current price and the 200 day moving average

upload_2021-5-20_18-11-32.png


There, the mayer ratio topped at 8.57, this time the top tick was 2.5. That happened because the 2013 advance happened very quickly, this time it had plenty of corrections. So I dont see this coming 80% drop that some people are seeing. There was simply no powerful thrust to the upside to expect that. On a fundamental basis, I dont think it makes sense either
My rule for exponential investments is: when in doubt stay long
 
Daal said:
Musk tanked BTC with his reversal. And it looks like he is correct

https://www.vox.com/2019/6/18/18642645/bitcoin-energy-price-renewable-china
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30087-X?_returnURL=https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S254243511930087X?showall=true

Not that it matters much for climate, there are probably 50+ more important things that will actually impact the global emission of greenhouse gases enough to make a difference but it WILL hurt BTC's adoption as ESG investing IS a long-term trend. Just the other day the economist magazine called for Buffett's head as CEO of BRK due him not joining this ESG trend. Blackrock also is a big promoter of this and they are the largest asset manager in the world. Of course, as far I know gold is actually worse than BTC in terms of overall enviromental impact so its an improvement but the BTC community will have to deal with this if they want long-term adoption to be significant. Any ESG concious asset manager/company wont be able to adopt BTC due the risk of being called hypocrites

This is actually great for Ethereum, from what I have seen the carbon footprint of ETH is less than 30% of BTC's and ETH2 will be way smaller still. ETH2 will be the most ESG friendly coin with significant network effects because it will be run by the normal computers (of which in the world there a hundreds of millions) but with sharding they become really powerful together. And Vitalik's has attacked BTC's enviromental impact before so its part of the design for ETH2 to be aware of that

Having said all that, I do think that there are plenty of non-ESG aware managers and institutions for BTC to find buying support at lower levels so I dont expect this will kill the coin. It could get nasty though, BTC could go to the 30's even but then the Ray Dalios of the world should step in and buy the coins they failed to buy before
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Some rough math in the thread. Appears very achievable to have BTC be carbon neutral.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395477516706402305
 
Sprout said:
Some rough math in the thread. Appears very achievable to have BTC be carbon neutral.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395477516706402305
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It might not be that easy according to other sources.
https://www.ft.com/content/1aecb2db-8f61-427c-a413-3b929291c8ac
upload_2021-5-20_20-10-44.png

The true figure for bitcoin could in fact be much higher; Cambridge’s extreme worst-case scenario calculation, based on miners using the least energy-efficient computers on the market as long as the process is still profitable, has peeled away from its central estimate sharply since November last year as the price of bitcoin has rocketed. The rationale: a rising bitcoin price attracts new miners, and also means that mining with older, less efficient equipment, makes financial sense.
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ph1l said:
It might not be that easy according to other sources.
https://www.ft.com/content/1aecb2db-8f61-427c-a413-3b929291c8ac
View attachment 259336
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My conclusion from this CO2 BTC debate is that there is plenty of info for people on both sides to believe what they want. Bulls will hang onto the Coinshare report saying most of BTC energy is renewables. Bears will hang onto the Cambrige report or other data. Who's right? I dont know but at the end of the day, it wont matter. SPY isn't ESG compliant according to Blackrock, and plenty of people invest in that (And Rock offers funds on that).
Its not something that completely falsifies the bull thesis on BTC, if it was, it would be pretty bad. But in this case, I will let confirmation biases do its thing and bulls got plenty of ammo on that
 
johnarb said:
In case you missed the forest for the trees, WW's on-chain analytics may suggest we are entering a bear market
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I need to be careful not to spread fud

I jumped on 1 passage, but there's a lot of confirmations that are needed before we declare it's a bear market

Obviously if I am 100% sure we're in a bear market, I can sell more cryptos that I still hodl

I'm hoping the bull market continues soon...

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Through this lens we’ve entered a bear phase of the market. I’ve only seen price drop below the floor at the start of a bear market, both in 2014 and 2018.

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Still watching the video but I'm attaching it to this post

 
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