The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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I took a little under half of that position just now (39800) and will hold the rest until the crypto greed and fear index shows greed
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
The rest of my crypto, I'm not touching
I would note that at that panic bottom, Kraken was down, Coinbase some people said was down and the stock market was closed (so ETFs couldn't be accessed). Binance and TradeStation Crypto were up, so they are now my preferred places to have fiat for tatical opportunities, especially TS Crypto which I think its lower risk than Binance for custody
I had no issues with Kraken, Gemini, Coinbase and Coinbase Pro with deposits, selling, and website access for submission of withdrawals
A friend told me Huobi and Binance.com were fine also and PanCakeswap and BSC bridge worked fast with cheap fees
edit, I was asleep during the crash to 30k
Sorry, did not realize I had a couple of mentions on the thread. It has been quite intense last couple of days, I was selling like a mad man in batches as certain price levels were violated on the downside
I guess I don't have a price anchoring problem
I'm on hodl mode now, very relaxed and relieved
Destriero's comment got me thinking of what if's tail risk scenario in the same fashion by that person who shall not be named as I am no longer a fan of
Honestly, Willy Woo came out with a report but I did not even read it until now while I'm writing this post. I did not even go on Twitter to read the on-chain analysts, Glassnode, William Clemente III, etc
I was so focused with transferring to multiple exchanges an bridge-blockchain, using advanced coin-controls to know which coin is proper for specific destination, keeping track of block confirmations, multitasking like crazy, the super ultrawide 49" monitor helped tremendously and a separate dedicated computer for crypto prices, don't care for charts
Ok, got the juice from Willy Woo published on May 18. Spoiler alert, he nailed it!
Listen, I don't think it's fair to publish too much of his report since it's a paid service. I'll put little snippets but I won't do it again. Please subscribe to Willy Woo if you want the benefits of his analysis
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"Top level summary for 18th May 2021 (current price $44.0k):
- Medium term: There’s been a tidal wave of coins that’s been dumped into exchanges to be sold; this trend has not yet reversed. It’s UNLIKELY we will see a sharp recovery under this lens, there’s simply been too much selling.
A tidal wave of coins moved into exchanges
We have seen a tidal wave of coins moving into exchanges to be sold, this trend is still climbing. Keen observers will notice the inflows were in recovery nearly crossing bullish when the current second and larger wave hit after the Elon Tweet.
BTC inventory at exchanges is now climbing at a steep rate.
Whales are selling
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edit: Above was a copy-pasta, no formatting such bolding or changing of letters to upper case or bigger fonts were done by me
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Wow, just finished reading WW report. I wish I read it when it came out
I think I'd have sold more in the $42-43K area, but over all, even without charts and only relying on price action, most of my sales were $40K+ btc levels, so I'm happy no matter what happens now going forward
A few interesting sentences (since this will be the last time I post any info from WW report):
Coins are now moving to weak hands; or rather holders who were previously strong have started selling thus becoming weak hands. Rick Astley has left the party.
During this sell down, price broke below the floor model. ....
Through this lens we’ve entered a bear phase of the market. I’ve only seen price drop below the floor at the start of a bear market, both in 2014 and 2018.
A shorter term rally is open
I think I'd have sold more in the $42-43K area, but over all, even without charts and only relying on price action, most of my sales were $40K+ btc levels, so I'm happy no matter what happens now going forward
A few interesting sentences (since this will be the last time I post any info from WW report):
Coins are now moving to weak hands; or rather holders who were previously strong have started selling thus becoming weak hands. Rick Astley has left the party.
During this sell down, price broke below the floor model. ....
Through this lens we’ve entered a bear phase of the market. I’ve only seen price drop below the floor at the start of a bear market, both in 2014 and 2018.
A shorter term rally is open
Ok, got the juice from Willy Woo published on May 18. Spoiler alert, he nailed it!
lmao, he didnt nail anything buddy
May 18: "in my last analysis, the market was recovering from deleveraging in April on derivative markets. I expected a bullish continuation based on investor fundamentals recovering. Shortly thereafter, Elon Musk instilled a dose of fear into the market by announcing"
What he did was he blamed his mistake on Elon and then proceeded to describe what happened. But more importantly did he say "I'm selling my bitcoin" or "I think now its time to sell bitcoin"? Because these would be the calls of someone that is not trying to protect some guru image, actual market calls not betting on one thing and talking another. He was saying BTC was going to $200K and maybe $300K this year, I find it hard to believe that he sold because of some irrelevant things from Musk. So his 'predictions' that he supposedly "nailed" are rather him hedging his ass. His on-chain magic were calling "for a bottom" back on May 8. Then he called for a sell-off from $44K, well, we are at $40.5K and if you went for coffee during the crash, you missed it as it quickly snaped back, so I dont see any value added there.
It looks to me that on-chain stuff is more of a coincident indicator rather than leading
My point remains, if 100K BTC flow into exchanges can do this much, then the exchange balances of 1.5M BTC is plenty enough to cause a bear market. I dont expect it now but when I do, I dont think the blockchain has to show anything. 1.5M BTC is plenty to do a lot of damage
Here is what a leading indicator looks like. The laser eyes thing started around Feb 19 2021. BTC closed that day at $55K, from there everytime it popped BTC was sold and eventually lows were set at $29K yesterday on some exchanges, even after the huge bounce, prices are still quite a bit lower than Feb 19. That actually had some predictive power/value added rather than just describing what happened. It gave its signal way ahead of time, not in a way that you had 1 day or two to react for some minor savings
As I said, I dont think this is THE top so when THE contrarian indicators show up, I bet the effect will be even larger. But this drop is teaching me that perhaps on-chain data matters even less than I thought
As I said, I dont think this is THE top so when THE contrarian indicators show up, I bet the effect will be even larger. But this drop is teaching me that perhaps on-chain data matters even less than I thought
Yesterday was a record day for Spot BTC
Yesterday markets traded around $9B in BTC. Yet, there are 1.5M BTC already deposited in exchanges, that's $63B dollars. Plus, than can be levered in derivatives markets. We are talking about over $100B in selling power already avaliable on exchanges. That's is plenty to generate the bear market in my mind. Especially because the selling that it can generate, will draw more panicky investors to exchanges (and the coincident explanations from on-chain gurus) continuing the cycle. I dont think the time is now but one day, something will click in the head of owners of that 1M+ BTC and they will panic sell. I dont know what will be but I dont think on-chain data will tell me, maybe NUPL will help, I dunno
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I think we are having a misunderstanding and on one of my posts I mentioned it to you, too tired to look for it
On chain analysis is not for traders, it's a big macro analysis for hodlers
You do know WW newsletter comes out every 2 weeks right? He may actually stop for personal reasons and come back after a month, will pause the charges
That's why in your context, he didn't nail it
That newsletter was a special edition, I don't think he was going to send one until next month but he was getting deluged with panicked subscribers
After falling from high 50K to 44K, most people were probably thinking RTM, back to 50k, BTFD
Guess what? on-chain analysis of WW says don't BTFD, whales are selling, coins are being transferred to the exchanges, review my 2 posts
Exactly what on-chain analysis is for
In case you missed the forest for the trees, WW's on-chain analytics may suggest we are entering a bear market
That is why I subscribed as I mentioned in one of my posts, big shift changes in macro structure of the bitcoin market and as a consequence, cryptos market
Not everything is a doom and gloom on the newsletter
WW still believes the bull market is not over, but this is why I subscribe, now, more than ever, it is very important to continuously monitor on-chain movements on when this selling by the whales will end or if it will continue and all rallies will be sold
I'm actually ready for the bear market
I can wait 4 years or double that for the next bull market
I'm still hodling a lot of $ value in cryptos so I can sell some more, thinking of cutting an alt position in half today
Actually on the fence about selling 3.5 btc's but no hurries, can wait for the next WW newsletter hopefully by end of the month in June
Hope you're doing ok in cryptos