The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I read a snippet, but it seems it's an old issue. Celsius assets are safe, but users beware
The attack is a dns attack, so lots of users will be fooled into giving up keys and stuff thinking they are dealing with Celsius when they are not
I thought they were getting rid of godaddy, and maybe they migrated to another company but dns is one of the weakest points of the internet infrastructure
pancakeswap domain also got hijacked a few weeks ago
Celsius security is very high, the only way to interact with the assets is through their mobile app, and even then, you're really just accessing an intermediary front end, not actual keys to any cryptos
Lots of these platforms are not operating on cryptos immediate blockchain time, blockfi has 24 hour with kyc every time you withdraw, but happily accept your deposits in crypto real time, lol
Nexo is the platform that is the closest to cryptos real time for withdrawals from my experience that I've seen out of the 3 platforms, blockfi, celsius and nexo
Yeah no. Full stop. You don't know half the things you think you know.
Exchanges are constantly in need of BTC/inventory, exchanges/their MM algos are some of biggest bids in the market. They always want to buy BTC.
Exchanges aren't the ones directly dumping, it's miners/whales through the exchange. Exchanges lowers their public bids after absorbing the impact OTC. Nobody dumps in open market.
Retail buys at exchange -> exchange buys from miners/whales. Exchanges push price up in order to get the scarce asset from the holders.
You need to do a lot more research, the fact you bring in CME, a futures exchange, into this discussion shows your knowledge level.
Whats exciting wrt bitcoin miners is that the publicly listed ones are exploiting the cheap money to issue debt and instead of selling their mined coins to fund operational costs, they are keeping them on the treasuries
This is very exciting, as it is, the bitcoin inflation is already very low with due to the last halving, if the publicly listed miners become net buyers instead of net sellers, the bitcoin supply crunch is just going to keep getting worse and the price of bitcoin can see levels that will melt a lot of faces
$100K is only a target for the next 2-3 months, many hodlers, myself included, think it's going much higher
I never said I was an expert. But my CAME example stands. When I buy a contract, I'm buying it in the market and I own it and it had to be sent to the market, not internalized. With BTC, it sounds like I don't actually own it until I cash out into cold storage. So I hope the exchange will give me my share if I want it. Imagine an instantenous price spike to 100k, and all of a sudden, everyone at the exchange wants to go into cold storage. Will the exchange have enough BTC to transfer out to everyone or are they having it buy it from the miners. This is my point.
No your CME example doesn't stand. You are talking about futures, which is a contract vs what everyone else is talking about, which is spot. You aren't even comparing apples to oranges, you are comparing apples to airplanes. If you said stock instead of futures, you would be on the right track.
There is no central clearing for BTC/crypto and there should never be, and at this point in the discussion I would hope you know that. Otherwise it's back to basics for you. Start with googling decentralized.
You are right about one thing, if you don't have it in a wallet you control, you don't really control it. Not your keys, not your coins. Many times if an exchange is short BTC for withdrawals, they are the ones bidding up the price globally.
If the exchange doesnt have enough BTC to pay withdrawers, it means the got hacked and they will suspend withdraws. That's what happened with Mt Gox and a number of others. Or its a ponzi and they wont pay. Could be a scam too, I have some coins stuck on HitBTC because its a scam exchange that doesnt pay people using the 'more KYC' excuse, you can send them your DNA and they will ask for more. In any event, most large exchanges do have the BTC to pay and they pay people daily. They buy it from the markets if they are short of it
You're obviously not understanding what I'm saying. By being decentralized, yes, no one person has the final say, but what you need is the minimum number of nodes to agree. So in a way, there is only one authority. That is my point. You only have a coin once the network agrees you have a coin. With the CME, its of course easy because only they have to say you have a contract and they don't need to check with anyone else. But with the crypto exchange, you only have a coin once you cash out into cold storage. That is my point and I'm sure we are saying the same thing.
Fink calls Crypto a 'great asset class' then says that its only a minor part of the conversation with institutions like Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension funds, Retirement services and large family offices. This is great, because when these folks start to jump in, it will likely be the time to sell.
They are burecratic, dumb and slow. If they start to buy crypto it means prices have risen so much, and the stories are so widespread even the idiots are coming in.
So they are likely to be a good top indicator at some point in the future
I guess I should include Central Banks in this category, not only for adding BTC on their balance sheet but for general comments. If Lagarde or Powell were to make positive comments about BTC, I would be scared, because so far they have been idiotic nocoiners, once they flip, its a signal the market is at an extreme
So, these might work as signals we are at a late stage bull market cycle, which combined with parabolic price action will make selling of trading BTC positions a good idea.
But its possible that none of this will happen in this cycle, we might see a institutional cycle dominated by smart money (early adopters with varying degrees of smartness) and that will reach an extreme, trigger a large correction and a 1-3 year bear market. And in the next cycle we would see the late institutional adopters coming in (at a mid and late stage) and then a collapse. Seems 50/50 to me at this point whether dumb institutions will join on this cycle or the next cycle, but I will be monitoring this. New Blackrock crypto funds might work as a proxy for dumb institutional demand so I will keep an eye on it