The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

[Daal]

Not to too my own horn but here it was my de-risk call from 2017

I did make a mistake in not fully appreciating the final parabolic move that these markets can bring, so in retrospect it was early (but it did go to 4k, so maybe it wasnt that early after all), I mistake I plan not to make this time around. Meanwhile John, what were YOUR thoughts when the Katy Perry moment hit the tape in 2017? I'm sure you didnt think much of it and just held no matter what, then you lost huge in 2018. If you are comfortable with losing most of your networth, great, YOLO. But I'm writing about an approach that is more prudent for most people, its more responsible and it doesnt require me being right 100% of the time. I can be right 20% of the time and still make lots of money. I believe that is way more robust then being so arrogant as thinking your investing is always right.

 

[johnarb]

It looks like the difference between my style and yours is a different approach to risk
How did you do in the last bear market? IIRC you lost the majority of your networth. I lost 2% in ICOs and a little bit on BTC in a long-term position I stablished during the crash, which was made up in traditional investments and I finished 2018 up slighly. Check the Global Macro Trading journal, I was screaming to sell bitcoin back in October, November and December.

Meanwhile, you think losing $330K is fine because you invested $130K, I dont. You think risking your coins in places like Celsius and Blockfi for a few percent is a smart idea, I don't. You think going all-in crypto is a smart idea, I dont, I want exposure but limited and with plenty of other assets so my lifestyle does not change if cryptos dont work out.

Your sort of thinking will help you make a lot more during bull markets but you will also lose a lot more in bears. I'm not comfortable with that risk, I want great risk-adjusted returns. The best CAGR/Max DD ratio (or the best K-Ratio) possible. I dont like drinking much kool-aid, you seem comfortable with it. Great, you are going to rock this bull market, but in the bear market, I bet things wont be so fun. You accuse me of trying to turning this around to your BNB trade, lol, you were the one who posted a BNB video here out of nowhere, when there is already an ET thread dedicated to it. And as far as me wanting to focus on DEXs, DeFi and DEXs on BSC both contain trust risk to Binance, so I dont see the difference. They dont solve much but rather, just provide a means in which people can do the gambling that they cant do ETH now.

I hope you can see what I see

You have chosen to direct all your efforts on me and my investing situation. What happened to your quest for unbiased truth? Ahh, you don't like the info I posted to you so it's easy to ignore and attack the messenger

I lost all profits on my first bear market (2014-2016). I lost 90% of crypto porftolio value on the 2nd bear market (208-2019). Was that truth helpful to you? I think not.

I'm ready for the next bear market. I have plans. In the mean time, 100% all in on cryptos.

This next crypto bear market cycle may catch a lot of people by surprise, since the hodlers now are a different breed and have a very long time horizon, but still have to prepare for the worst...

You're telling us you lack of bias in your analysis, but doing something different. Good luck

 

[Daal]

I hope you can see what I see

You have chosen to direct all your efforts on me and my investing situation. What happened to your quest for unbiased truth? Ahh, you don't like the info I posted to you so it's easy to ignore and attack the messenger

I lost all profits on my first bear market (2014-2016). I lost 90% of crypto porftolio value on the 2nd bear market (208-2019). Was that truth helpful to you? I think not.

I'm ready for the next bear market. I have plans. In the mean time, 100% all in on cryptos.

This next crypto bear market cycle may catch a lot of people by surprise, since the hodlers now are a different breed and have a very long time horizon, but still have to prepare for the worst...

You're telling us you lack of bias in your analysis, but doing something different. Good luck

The issue is not my bias and evilness in discussing things, its that we have a different approach to risk. That is what makes us disagree about so much in crypto. It has nothing to do with the technicalities of this or that coin

 

[johnarb]

The issue is not my bias and evilness in discussing things, its that we have a different approach to risk. That is what makes us disagree about so much in crypto. It has nothing to do with the technicalities of this or that coin

I would not call it evilness

I hodl 120 Eth and my plan was to hodl until it hits $10K by eoy, but I'm not stubborn when I see new information in front of me.

I now see Eth has more downside risk than upside potential. Imho, It may go higher to $3K, but since it has hit the transaction limits and Defi projects are stalled, the blockchain is hindered

I'm planning to trade all my eth to btc, as well as the 2 eth defi coins to btc starting today. I don't argue with facts when presented to me

I will only hold a few eth for gas fees since I will continue to hodl nexo and cel. Those 2 eth coins can migrate to another blockchain easily and not married to the Ethereum blockchain due to smart contracts dependencies

Also need eth for gas fees if trading positions to "money markets" i.e. stablecoins which mostly are on Ethereum blockchain

 

[tsznecki]

I hodl 120 Eth and my plan was to hodl until it hits $10K by eoy, but I'm not stubborn when I see new information in front of me.

I now see Eth has more downside risk than upside potential. Imho, It may go higher to $3K, but since it has hit the transaction limits and Defi projects are stalled, the blockchain is hindered

That is an interesting point and the quality of debate I come here for. You don't believe POS and sharding will resolve this? If you do, then certainly the long term viability is still there for ETH.

 

[johnarb]

That is an interesting point and the quality of debate I come here for. You don't believe POS and sharding will resolve this? If you do, then certainly the long term viability is still there for ETH.

I absolutely do believe Eth 2.0 with all of those features will solve the problems, the question is when?

Present time, the risk/reward is not so good on eth, imho. I'd rather hide out (trade the eth pfolio capital value and 2 eth defi coins value) in btc

All other pfolio position stays as is. I'm also on the lookout for a bear market, which would necessitate a different series of steps as planned. To be clear, I see no indication of a bear market.

I see $100K by eoy for btc. First confirmation target was $50K. Second confirmation was $1 Trillion market cap. I'm thinking accelerated move up now since more investment funds are gonna be able to buy in due to market cap being above $1T. We'll find out soon

The upward move on btc has been great, any pullbacks are short and act as a catapult for next ath to be hit. Tomorrow's start of the week, with the Canadian bitcoin etf, more $ to come in. Fun times! Much better than the crypto bear market!

 

[Daal]

Every moron changed their twitter handle to laser eyes and crypto markets went into a correction mode. Twitter sentiment is something to be on the look out for top indicators

 

[Daal]

I'm hoping something like ZKSwap (a layer 2 type of uniswap) can solve this. I even bought some ZKSwap tokens. Fees would dramatically decrease if people started to use this service

Just sold 40% of my ZKSwap. Its up a lot since my purchase so I got to bank some

 

[Daal]

ETH fees are going through the roof right now!

 

[Daal]

Here is a theory I have been flirting with: By looking at historical data, its ridiculously obvious that Bitcoin is one hell of a bet when its down 70-80%. With smarter institutions coming into the space, instead of idiotic retail investors, 80% bear markets might now be a thing of the past. Now the buy area will be 50-60% because hedge funds and asset managers will simply not allow the price to get that low (in other words, Bitcoin prices will become a bit more efficient). This goes along with the theory that Bitcoin will become less volatile over the years (and the data support that theory)
I think this will hold under most scenarios except if Bitcoin goes into such a huge speculative frenzy driven by regulated and unregulated leverage that a larger correction becomes inevitable