The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Looking forward to 60 Minutes on Sunday. Ben is on and he's already talking up QE III. Details were released Friday afternoon, which helps explain the moonshot in commodities and bond yields, as well as the dollar dump. Also, a move is afoot to keep Ron Paul from running the house committee w/oversight of the Fed. Even if they can't keep him from running it, they can neuter him to zero effectiveness. Sad times.
 
10 year is getting destroyed again today, up another 15 bp to 3.29%. Interesting that the Dec 10 Eurodollar is getting hammered as well, down 9 ticks to 99.59. I hope no one held onto their Dec10 99.00 calls too long.:D
 
Huh? I see Dec10 Eurodollars up 0.25 on the day at 99.685/6875. In general, it's hard to imagine the front contract moving 10 ticks in the last week of its life, without something pretty horrible happening.
 
I have no idea in what world bernanke is in when he says he is not printing money. M2 growth latetly has been quite robust, this will get even stronger as the $600b of assets are purchased.

Fed futures have taken a beating in the last 2 days, I'm thinking of going all-in on them. They were 99.58 the last time I checked(I dont have data here but I suspect they rallied this morning). on 1 rate hike you lose 8bps, no hike you make at least 25bps(EFF will go down some more). In a really bad scenario 2 hike you lose 32bps. The 1 hike scenario is so small I dont even recognize it. So you either gain $1000 per contract or lose $1280, even though I believe the Fed wont give as much weight to the UR as they did in previous cycles(due balance sheet concerns) I dont think they would hike with 9%+ UR and there is an argument for a rising UR in 2011

So, one more time, this look like a good trade
 
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