The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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Gross: Get out of the US for investment success
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1602199741&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1602199741&play=1
I'm staring at my screen, stupified. We actually had some volatility today. A couple of highlights ...
2% move in equity indices - starting the day up 1% and then dropping as much as down 1%
250 pip move in the GBP in a couple of hours
110 pip move in the AUD in a couple of hours
10 year note yields start the day flat, shoot up 11 basis points following meaningless econ data, and then drop 8 basis points in a couple of hours.
I had some bids on some more Dec VXX calls that got hit while stocks were up 1%, so I feel like I got in at some pretty good prices. Of course, when I feel I got a deal on anything, it usually turns out just the opposite,
2% move in equity indices - starting the day up 1% and then dropping as much as down 1%
250 pip move in the GBP in a couple of hours
110 pip move in the AUD in a couple of hours
10 year note yields start the day flat, shoot up 11 basis points following meaningless econ data, and then drop 8 basis points in a couple of hours.
I had some bids on some more Dec VXX calls that got hit while stocks were up 1%, so I feel like I got in at some pretty good prices. Of course, when I feel I got a deal on anything, it usually turns out just the opposite,
Ryder Cup starts tomorrow. I'm hearing that it could be a washout.
At 7:4, I like the US. I also like Dustin Johnson to be the top point getter at 20:1. I think he's the best player in the world right now. I assume he'll be paired with Mickelson for at least 2, if not 3 matches. DJ could wind up with 3.5 points.
If you have the top point getter in a bet and there's a tie, do you still win the bet?
At 7:4, I like the US. I also like Dustin Johnson to be the top point getter at 20:1. I think he's the best player in the world right now. I assume he'll be paired with Mickelson for at least 2, if not 3 matches. DJ could wind up with 3.5 points.
If you have the top point getter in a bet and there's a tie, do you still win the bet?
Heres a thought provoking blog post on M2/M3 and future NGDP
http://www.newsneconomics.com/2010/09/money-quandary.html
This suggests NGDP will fall, I have my doubts over the relevancy of M3 to predict future outcomes(Which was the reason the Fed dropped using it, not the Illuminati) but her data suggests that. In any event, IF she is correct that is means easy money for even longer and larger QE
http://www.newsneconomics.com/2010/09/money-quandary.html
This suggests NGDP will fall, I have my doubts over the relevancy of M3 to predict future outcomes(Which was the reason the Fed dropped using it, not the Illuminati) but her data suggests that. In any event, IF she is correct that is means easy money for even longer and larger QE
Dudley: 'we will be easing as things are right now'. Contradicting Bernanke who says things need to get worse
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awt9pVrjv8Zg&pos=1
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awt9pVrjv8Zg&pos=1
Liesman says Fed is surveying market participants to gauge market expectations on QE. QE2 looks like a done deal
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1604558767&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1604558767&play=1
People have been estimating the effects of QE in interest rates and GDP but I believe that is missing the point a little. BIS and Rogoff research indicates that delevering continues for on avg 7 years after a financial crisis, to me the biggest effect QE will have will be on the money supply and inflation measures. Assuming 40% of the money base printed turns into broader monetary aggregates(as it did in the QE1 program), this would ensure the money supply didnt collapse during these '7 lean years' and deflation is countered
But for some reason the Fed doesn't talk in that way, they keep referring to 'supporting economic growth' as a result people estimate effects on rates and GDP, they conclude the QE will be of little use since the effects will be small. Well, the effects would been large if they didnt do it and M2 collapsed. So even if rates go down by 10bps and GDP up by 0.2% its still worthwhile to do it in order to prevent debt deflation
But for some reason the Fed doesn't talk in that way, they keep referring to 'supporting economic growth' as a result people estimate effects on rates and GDP, they conclude the QE will be of little use since the effects will be small. Well, the effects would been large if they didnt do it and M2 collapsed. So even if rates go down by 10bps and GDP up by 0.2% its still worthwhile to do it in order to prevent debt deflation
I can't see why FF effective would go lower...