The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Daal:

ECRI member now calling for 50% chance of recession
http://pragcap.com/ecri-chance-of-recession-greater-than-50

Next will be barry ritholdz, when he comes out and says double dip is likely I bet the economy will be in recession already
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Why are you so obsessed with these moronic percentages or whether we are technically in a recession or not. Equity prices are in the crapper. STIR and bond prices are pricing in zero short term rates forever. What more do you want?

Nobody except idiot economists, talking heads, lazy journalists, or politicians gives a damn - we all know things are sluggish. The question is what are you doing? Adding to your FF longs? Buying eurodollars? Buying 10 years? Shorting the $? Selling corporate paper vs gov't paper? Selling the junk bond index? Are you researching what would be the best move once all these imbeciles you keep referring to declare we are in recession - maybe that's the time to short bonds or buy $'s.

And Krugman is still wrong. I'll take Denninger anyday ...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165876
 
And naturally, just at the time everyone KNOWS we're headed to recession and Japan-like status for the next decade, bond yields jump about 40 points in a week.

This used to be a great thread. Lots of good trading ideas. Time to move this baby to Wall Street News or Economics.
 
Lockhardt supports QE if economy worsens
" (03/09/10 DJ): Would consider balance sheet expansion if economy worsens. Expects better GDP growth later this year.

VIEW

: It seems like the data has to surprise clearly on the downside to push the Fed into further QE. Today's data means that has not yet happened."
 
How to tell if CEOs are lying
http://www.economist.com/node/16847818

"They also use fewer “non-extreme positive emotion words”. That is, instead of describing something as “good”, they call it “fantastic”. The aim is to “sound more persuasive” while talking horsefeathers."

I remember MBIA CFO saying in 2007 how their commercial RE team was 'the best in the business'
 
'Deceptive bosses, it transpires, tend to make more references to general knowledge (“as you know…”)'

This is a trick routinely used by Bernanke
 
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