The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

US is certainly not fine. I think it won't be too long before the baleful eye of the mkt turns on its fiscal situation. It will be even more dire, given how starkly it's likely to contrast vs the Western sovs that have started fiscal tightening. Of course, the flip side is that the US still enjoys the support of its one faithful creditor and is probably perceived by the rest of the world as "too big to fail".
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

US is certainly not fine. I think it won't be too long before the baleful eye of the mkt turns on its fiscal situation. It will be even more dire, given how starkly it's likely to contrast vs the Western sovs that have started fiscal tightening. Of course, the flip side is that the US still enjoys the support of its one faithful creditor and is probably perceived by the rest of the world as "too big to fail".
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I also dont expect any US bond crash soon, if anything they will probably rally some more as stocks fall. I'm just amazed that a number of paid professionals seems to be arguing that US sovereign risks arent going up given all the stuff that is going on, seems like they think this time is different
 
Quote from Daal:

The rates are low camp seems to be attached to that measure of risk, and only that one. Ignoring others like

-Banking crisis historically have lead to sovereign debt crisis
-Deficits as a % of GDP
-Rising public debt as a % of GDP
-Contagion. They somehow imply that the EU crisis has lead to a 0% increase in the likelyhood of a US sovereign debt crisis
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Can't the US just print dollars to pay its debt?
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Can't the US just print dollars to pay its debt?
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Yes but the bonds would crash. It seems that some people are taking comfort in the fact that Japan was able to make it so far, I'm not so optimistic because I know that this Fed will explode QE to astronomical levels if necessary to create inflation and at some point they will get it, and Congress wont be too keen in cutting down tons of stimulus measures out there when inflation is back
 
Purchased some well out of the money VXX Sept calls over the last 2 days. Any break in stocks over the next few weeks and they'll double in a heartbeat. Any drop of over 5% and they'll go up 5 or 10 times on value.
 
Hoenig probably dissents again, its been a while since he has been operating under his full faculties, so he might just flat out call for a hike today. If the fed implements QEII, which I expect down the line, he might flat out start physically harassing other members :p
 
It's dissenters everywhere... Even the Old Lady, it seems, can't get a unanimous decision to stay at 0 forever these days. Of course, in the UK, trotting out Sentance is probably Mervynator's ploy to try to put a lid on inflation expectations.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

It's dissenters everywhere... Even the Old Lady, it seems, can't get a unanimous decision to stay at 0 forever these days. Of course, in the UK, trotting out Sentance is probably Mervynator's ploy to try to put a lid on inflation expectations.
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I was suspecting the same thing with Fisher 2008 dissents
 
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