The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Canda just posted a massive employment report, however the +100K print had a 90K+ increase in the labor force, thats the shadow inventory of labor, probably will happen in the US as well. UR might stay high for a long a time
 
I expect a blowout # in the US as well. Should explode US stock futures and destroy eurodollars. If you think this crisis still has legs, it could provide a nice opportunity to sell some stock and buy some eurodollars (June 11 or later of course!).
 
Quote from ralph00:

Can't do it. The bid/ask on June 11 and beyond (where I have most of my exposure) is super wide. I'm not giving these back to the clown who sold 'em to me in the first place for the prices being bid right now.

The libor blowout hasn't and probably won't affect these contract months. The underlying and the options were up strongly all week. In fact, I expect they will fall in price along with the LIBOR/OIS spread. That's the paradox of this trade. I now realize that 75 points as an upside was a pipe dream. There was no way that if financial condtions remained at the point where the LIBOR/OIS spread was so slim, that the Fed would not have eventually tightened. The only way to get the Fed off the tightening track was for this to happen, which has blown out the spread. 50-60 points is a much more realistic upside.
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I disagree regarding the pipe dream, it could and can happen. Tightness in money markets isn't one of the Fed's 3 conditions for loose policy. If LIBOROIS is at 1bps for some reason but the core CPI is at 0%, Fed is not going anywhere
 
Crazy, the OIS 3m had a bunch of prints above 25bps(currently its slighly below 25bps). Do people really think the Fed will lose control over the ceiling in the funds market?I expect the NYFed to turn on the printing press and buy up all the UST-bills out there before that happens
 
Bob Barbera with another on-air orgasm on CNBC. I suppose if the UE jumped all the way over 10%, he would have gotten on his knees and started blowing Liesman right on set.
 
There you go, massive NFP but the UR went up, I understand they are different surveys but it looks like people are coming out of the house to try to find work
"The size of the labor force rose by 805,000 in April, the Labor Department said."
 
If I know anything about markets (very debatable), anyone who fades this moonshot in index futures will make some money this morning. I, of course, make it a practice not to speculate in index futures, so I don't have to actually make the trade.:)
 
1246 GMT [Dow Jones] The broadest measure of underemployment followed headline unemployment rate up in April. The so-called U-6 rate, which includes unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, rose to 17.1% in April from 16.9% in March. The extreme slack in labor markets is why wages--up just a penny in April--can gain no traction.(kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com)
 
Apparently if IB auto-liquidates you based on a busted trade, you can't do nothing about it in terms of losses you would have in the liquidated positions(due bid ask spreads, illiquidity)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=198210

Seems I will have to be careful, a bad print in ZQ could potentially lead to liquidation of my account. I asked IB about this and they said a single trade or two wouldn't lead to that, the problem is that a sell-off like yesterday's would. The biggest sell-off I've seen so far on ZQ was a 40bps drop back in Jun 2009 after an NFP report. I can take that one well, but obviously in the future, something worse could loom
 
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