The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Daal:

"CME Group is developing a new "FedWatch" tool that will allow you to quickly calculate the market's expectations of actions by the Fed at future FOMC meetings, based on Fed Funds futures daily settlement prices. Watch for more information on the availability of this tool soon."
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This has existed for years now... I don't understand what's there to develop, really.

Check this out here (based on FedFund futures options prices):
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/fedfunds/index.cfm

BBG has the FFIP fuctionality, which allows you to imply the probabilities using either options or futures prices. It's also quite easy to create your own spreadsheet in Excel, but would very much depend on how sophisticated you wanna get. The Cleveland Fed methodology is quite rigorous and accurate.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

This has existed for years now... I don't understand what's there to develop, really.

Check this out here (based on FedFund futures options prices):
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/fedfunds/index.cfm

BBG has the FFIP fuctionality, which allows you to imply the probabilities using either options or futures prices. It's also quite easy to create your own spreadsheet in Excel, but would very much depend on how sophisticated you wanna get. The Cleveland Fed methodology is quite rigorous and accurate.
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The CME one might be quasi-real time(15min delayed), thats useful for us traders without bloomberg terminals
 
Quote from Daal:

The CME one might be quasi-real time(15min delayed), thats useful for us traders without bloomberg terminals
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Well, if you want that, why don't you just create your own spreadsheet that will be full realtime? It's honestly not very hard, depending on accuracy desired. And you'll have full control over the methodology and the functionality.
 
Bill Dudley speech has lots of kind words and justifications for 'extended period'. Looks like there will be at least one more meeting with that, making the first hike possible in Nov 2-3 at the earliest. That shouldn't prevent Greenlaw from reaching all time highs in his confidence(along with the stock market)
 
The Dec 99 calls have pulled back to 33 and might drop a couple of more ticks today - that'll be more than a double if you are right. Are you buying more?
 
Quote from ralph00:

The Dec 99 calls have pulled back to 33 and might drop a couple of more ticks today - that'll be more than a double if you are right. Are you buying more?
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I'm waiting till I'm sure libor has stopped going up(its at short-term highs now). Also I'm curious how a big NFP number will affect all the Fed speeches
 
I'm pretty sure Bob Barberra just shot his load on CNBC. Haven't seen one of those on-air orgasms on squawk box since Maria used to do it regularly during the tech bubble.
 
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