The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Greenlaw on higher rates
"Clients and colleagues have pushed back hard on our call, largely because the target is aggressive, but also because many of the key drivers needed to validate the call are not yet evident. Far from backing off, however, our conviction level remains high, as we see strong hints that many of the key drivers are falling into place"
Stay the course!
"However, the Fed has yet to change either its inflation outlook or its rhetoric. We think that will start at the April FOMC meeting, and trigger a significant change in how the market is pricing the future path of monetary policy."
Looks like they are setting a deadline from when he is going to be wrong. I see little evidence that the Fed will change language or outlook in April. Inflation numers are all reaching/close to lows, expectations are off their highs and Fed president Evans used extended period two days ago(Plus Bernanke last week). Maybe if the NFP is huge and the FOMC minutes show some kind of intense debate but the evidence is not there yet, Greenlaw seems just desperate to not have to admit he is wrong
"Clients and colleagues have pushed back hard on our call, largely because the target is aggressive, but also because many of the key drivers needed to validate the call are not yet evident. Far from backing off, however, our conviction level remains high, as we see strong hints that many of the key drivers are falling into place"
Stay the course!
"However, the Fed has yet to change either its inflation outlook or its rhetoric. We think that will start at the April FOMC meeting, and trigger a significant change in how the market is pricing the future path of monetary policy."
Looks like they are setting a deadline from when he is going to be wrong. I see little evidence that the Fed will change language or outlook in April. Inflation numers are all reaching/close to lows, expectations are off their highs and Fed president Evans used extended period two days ago(Plus Bernanke last week). Maybe if the NFP is huge and the FOMC minutes show some kind of intense debate but the evidence is not there yet, Greenlaw seems just desperate to not have to admit he is wrong
Barrick Gold Suit May Cut Nevada Mine Output by Half
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUAm4F6i1_y4&pos=5
I understand some people like to play gold through stocks, although there is certaintly some room for things like that, I'm not a big fan. If one wants a levered exposure to gold prices, they just need to buy more gold futures or XAU/USD oanda pair. Although I'm sure if one is good at investigative work and understand the industry they can find some stocks with both leverage and excellent possible risk adjusted returns but its so much work and its not easy so I rather use gold itself. Most people dont beat the benchmarks, so its unlikely I will.
As far as stock picking is concerned I rather stick with the strategy of waiting for total nobrainers, rather than doing deep investigative work for weeks. PPD looks like that in the short side(ponzi) and in the long side GGP, but the statistics says I'm likely to be wrong
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUAm4F6i1_y4&pos=5
I understand some people like to play gold through stocks, although there is certaintly some room for things like that, I'm not a big fan. If one wants a levered exposure to gold prices, they just need to buy more gold futures or XAU/USD oanda pair. Although I'm sure if one is good at investigative work and understand the industry they can find some stocks with both leverage and excellent possible risk adjusted returns but its so much work and its not easy so I rather use gold itself. Most people dont beat the benchmarks, so its unlikely I will.
As far as stock picking is concerned I rather stick with the strategy of waiting for total nobrainers, rather than doing deep investigative work for weeks. PPD looks like that in the short side(ponzi) and in the long side GGP, but the statistics says I'm likely to be wrong
Trifecta this morning ...
1. On the top of CBSMarketwatch site (right underneath news of surging stock futures) ...
2. The Economist ...
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15816636&source=hptextfeature
3. Last but not least, this guy from Minyanville whose bio makes you believe he is the next George Soros. This article is clearly an audition to be the next Larry Kudlow ...
http://www.minyanville.com/business...h-morgan-stanley/3/31/2010/id/27554?page=full
Its fair to say that anyone betting on continuing low rates has contrary opinion on their side.
1. On the top of CBSMarketwatch site (right underneath news of surging stock futures) ...
2. The Economist ...
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15816636&source=hptextfeature
3. Last but not least, this guy from Minyanville whose bio makes you believe he is the next George Soros. This article is clearly an audition to be the next Larry Kudlow ...
http://www.minyanville.com/business...h-morgan-stanley/3/31/2010/id/27554?page=full
Its fair to say that anyone betting on continuing low rates has contrary opinion on their side.
Add JPM to that mix. I don't know if Greenlaw wrote this or not ...
We believe that the global economy is making an important transition to self sustaining growth as the first quarter comes to an end. As part of this shift, GDP growth is re-accelerating following a modest downshiftdownshift at the turn of the year. However, it is the significant broadening in G-3 demand, rather than the pickup in top-line growth, that will be the key marker for this transition.
We are becoming more bullish on economic growth, both in terms of how fast economies will grow and in terms of confidence that it will actually happen. Activity data across much of the world have surprised on the upside in recent weeks. Most important is that they
are showing greater breadth across regions, sectors, and types of spending.â
We believe that the global economy is making an important transition to self sustaining growth as the first quarter comes to an end. As part of this shift, GDP growth is re-accelerating following a modest downshiftdownshift at the turn of the year. However, it is the significant broadening in G-3 demand, rather than the pickup in top-line growth, that will be the key marker for this transition.
We are becoming more bullish on economic growth, both in terms of how fast economies will grow and in terms of confidence that it will actually happen. Activity data across much of the world have surprised on the upside in recent weeks. Most important is that they
are showing greater breadth across regions, sectors, and types of spending.â
This ain't Greenlaw. It's most likely Bruce Kasman, who, IMO, is one of the best US economists out there.