The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

That's another concern. FF is going up w/o an official tightening.

Like I said, what all this means for 2011 is another story. Right now, my plan is that the big payroll #'s and falling UE rate - which chould cause a sharp rise in yields - will represent a buying opportunity. I think all of this stimulus, census hiring, and political chicanery can keep the illusion going through the election, but that it all falls apart again in 2011.

I'll give more precise timing on all of this is when I know it myself!
 
Quote from ralph00:

That's another concern. FF is going up w/o an official tightening.
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This seems to be happening for technical reasons and not for the bloomberg theory that traders are betting the fed will move
The revival of the SFP is creating tons of UST bills, which has raised their yields along with all short-term rates that are equivalent in nature as ways to park short-term cash(FFs and repo markets)
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The most recent spike is not about the SFP, but rather the GSEs gently withdrawing from lending in the FF mkt (for a variety of reasons).
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Is there some kind of press release on this?
 
As I mentioned, some of the earlier movements were definitely due to the SFP, as well as some bill maturations...

However, most recently, the color I am getting from the mkt is that it's all about the GSE activities (specifically, the hoarding of reserves by the GSEs arnd the P&I payments, which have been volatile, esp in light of the buyouts).
 
The first hike comes in Sep 21 at the earliest. The question is how till David Greenlaw says 'we are updating our view for a fed hike to the 4th quarter'
 
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