The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

I think I posted that article a few weeks back on this thread. Good stuff. :)

I'm pretty much snowed in today and may have to buy some Euros. The cacophony of folks carping about the end of the Euro and hedge fund types leaking to reporters how much they're making w/their shorts has become overwhelming. The Euro may be more hated right now than Gov't Bonds. The final straw was an interview w/that buffoon Dennis Gartman this morning where he claimed the Euro is doomed.

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/7303-dennis-gartman-the-euro-is-doomed.html?Itemid=5

Naturally he couches his 'prediction' in such a way that no one will ever be able to claim he is wrong. Its frightening that this clown is so widely followed and that folks have actually invested money with him.
 
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4691
This says that the fed historically has cared about GDP growth rather than the output gap with regards to the Fed funds rate and their Taylor model says the fed hikes by year end(that chart they show is the argument against them, the last two cycles the fed stayed below the taylor rule for a while, its likely they will do it again)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/41d9fba0-224a-11df-9a72-00144feab49a.html
This article says fed might hike pretty soon but that assumes the UR has peaked, it doesnt seem that it did, in particular given that shadow inventory of labor

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2009ltr.pdf
Buffetts letter
 
As I understand Obama will nominate someone and he will have to be approved by congress. With the UR so high we know they will pick a dove
 
The bulk of my bets are still on the front end, but I'd say from a cash point of view I'm quite underinvested at this point(this is not to say I'm underexposed to markets, one FF hike and I lose huge). The cash is currently earning nothing at IB, Oanda and some banks. My plan here is to wait for a more significant equity correction, this should drag down commodities with it, then I plan on jumping in and putting that cash to work in comm ETFs or perhaps a commodity index future, expecting to make 15% a year if correct or lose a similar amount if wrong, then monitor the chances of a double dip(ironically a stock market correction should increase the chance of a double dip, so this is something I need to keep in mind)
I also plan on jumping in brazilian stocks to capture both the equity premium with the added steroids of the commodity boom, but of course the thesis need to be correct.

The last research that I did showed that past commodity booms were not related to monetary factors(M2) but I'm yet to see evidence they were supply and demand related and not connected to say, full moon cycles or political parties in office or something else
 
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