I'd say it makes sense in theory that there would be periods of prosperity and despair type of boom bust cycles, I'm just not sure they are as predictable as some think. After all if during recovery period the central bank decides to implement bad polcies this would affect the final outcome. I'm saying things are more random and harder to predict. An event like 9/11 can change a lot, and the Kondratieff model might not take into account random hard to predict events like that(But the only thing I know about Kondratieff is what I read on wikipedia)
The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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I'd say it makes sense in theory that there would be periods of prosperity and despair type of boom bust cycles, I'm just not sure they are as predictable as some think. After all if during recovery period the central bank decides to implement bad polcies this would affect the final outcome. I'm saying things are more random and harder to predict. An event like 9/11 can change a lot, and the Kondratieff model might not take into account random hard to predict events like that(But the only thing I know about Kondratieff is what I read on wikipedia)
Actually, Pellegrini wanted to take profits fairly early on as the MBS they were short began to plummet. It was Paulson who insisted they let it ride. Even though it worked out well, it remains a sore point w/Pellegrini whose goals in the trade were quite a bit different than Paulson's.
Those GE Dec 2010 calls had tripled in value in the space of a couple of months. The GE Mar 2011 calls that I own had more than doubled in a manner of weeks. I see nothing wrong w/selling some into that silly Thanksgiving mini-panic. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. There is the real possibility that the Fed could raise rates in mid-2010. This would be a mistake, but that fact wouldn't help those call prices. We already know the ECB raised rates in mid-2008 and the Fed came pretty close to doing so as well.
The bid/ask spreads appear wide on your IB screen, but I've found that by using limit orders, I've been able to get filled somewhere in the mid-point.
Not sure what you're talking about. Druckenmiller was famous for trading around his positions - sometimes even catching both the up moves and down moves in a trending market. Paul Tudor Jones as well. When Soros talked about being a pig, he was talking about taking a huge position in something he believed in - not riding it for every last point.
Hey, I agree w/you on the big picture and I'm happy to say I've banked some nice coin on the trade. The risk/reward at .30 is nowhere near where it was at .12 and I saw nothing wrong w/taking some profits. The bid/ask isn't as horrible as it looks if you know what you're doing. If the calls recover and move in a straight line back up, I'll have made a mistake - another in a long line! In the meantime, I'm finding it easier to reasses everything now that I've got a smaller positoin.
http://www.google.com/search?q=The+Limits+to+Fundamental+Conviction,+Clarium+Capital&ie=UTF-8
"The Limits to Fundamental Conviction, Clarium Capital"
(Using Google as a referrer lets one view the entire article)
Interesting article about Clarium's history. Nothing groundbreaking new, but shining another light on the dilemma of diligent analysis when the markets don't agree.
"The Limits to Fundamental Conviction, Clarium Capital"
(Using Google as a referrer lets one view the entire article)
Interesting article about Clarium's history. Nothing groundbreaking new, but shining another light on the dilemma of diligent analysis when the markets don't agree.
Bernanke suggesting 'extend period' is still in next week.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126020573794780253.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
The premature rate hikers dont seem to understand that extended means at least 6 months, but more like 8-10 months or more. 'Considerable' meant 5 months(after the removal thats how long it took for the fed to hike FF) and these guys wouldn't use a word stronger than considerable for no reason
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126020573794780253.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
The premature rate hikers dont seem to understand that extended means at least 6 months, but more like 8-10 months or more. 'Considerable' meant 5 months(after the removal thats how long it took for the fed to hike FF) and these guys wouldn't use a word stronger than considerable for no reason
Front end is soaring, GE calls almost back at their previous highs. Thats why I dont try to time things I like the fundamentals, if I could do that I would just time things all day long. Become a short-term trader and ignore fundamentals totally. Short-term trading is already difficult, but short-term trading by fading things likely to move in one direction(due the good fundamentals) is beyond difficult
Here's some data that helps explain why there was a global housing boom
It appears the the fall of the soviet union contributed to global deflationary forces(by increasing the amount of workers avaliable in the world trading system), that in turn lead to a fall in interest rates and a rise in asset values
It appears the the fall of the soviet union contributed to global deflationary forces(by increasing the amount of workers avaliable in the world trading system), that in turn lead to a fall in interest rates and a rise in asset values