The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

Daal, there's an interesting discussion oin NucPhy, loosely arnd the subjects that you might be interested in. I have chimed in initially, but it's gotten a bit too theoretical for me now. Inflation vs deflation is one of the themes.

http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show Post.aspx?PostIDKey=136245
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Tks.
You might want to look at this study I posted a while back

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/unemployment_an.html#more

It explains that much misunderstood cyclical phillips curve. So I'm on the disinflation/deflation camp for 2010, which is one reason why I dont believe there will be a fed hike next year(there might be however, a start in the programs to cut back the monetary base but there is also the chance they will actually expand QE)
 
Quote from Daal:

Tks.
You might want to look at this study I posted a while back

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/unemployment_an.html#more

It explains that much misunderstood cyclical phillips curve. So I'm on the disinflation/deflation camp for 2010, which is one reason why I dont believe there will be a fed hike next year(there might be however, a start in the programs to cut back the monetary base but there is also the chance they will actually expand QE)
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Yep, I have seen this one, of course. I subscribe to Econbrowser.

I am with you in that I don't see the Fed willingly hiking next year. I fear, however, that their hand might be forced.
 
An ET poster sent me this as a message, he is talking about that guy Anekdoten

"I basically approached him and some of the members on IRC and chatted about his ET posts.

Long story short he or them because its a big group trade nothing like AHG, not even close.

They are in the picking tops and bottoms business game.


That's all I could grab from the chat, the insiders are very respectful to him so they spill no beans on techniques.

He's a nice fellow, but very protective of his advanced methods.

Only thing I got was this

<ESD> do you still buy HLs ?
<Anek> No, I buy LLs.

Go figure.

Hope it helps."

Which raises the question, why would he change his method given that his previous trendfollowing ES system, which he routinely claimed to be so awesome, only gave him 7 losing days in 2007?Something doesn't add up here

If he indeed now buys Lower Lows I can actually see that working. Matter of fact I'm currently following a mean reversion type ES trading system that uses historical overbought/oversold conditions to take index exposure. That thing is, this method will typically be taking the other side of the trade that the original AHG method did. Yet, one is a quant method based on actual backtesting(it doesnt guarantee it will continue in the future, but at least it has that), while the other is based on claims that trendfollowing works in large cap US stocks, which defines both history and maybe even economics
 
The only difference between statistical trading methods and technical analysis is the quality and robustness of the backtest.

TA is an intellectual cop out, an easy solution preferred out of laziness. That's my view, anyways.
 
"My findings suggest that credit conditions play an important role in constraining recovery from recessions associated with financial crises. Industries that rely more on external finance grow more slowly during recoveries from these episodes relative to all other recoveries, suggesting that credit conditions remain stressed well after the trough of the recession. The effects are strongest during the first year of the recovery phase and become insignificant only after three years. Importantly, this differential growth rate is significantly different from what we observe during a typical recovery."

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4232

kannan%20fig%201.JPG


The question now is how delusional was Jim Grant when he wrote his from bear to bull wsj op-ed
 
Yet another group of people hurt by fake daytrading 'gurus'
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...did-daytrading-coaching-wallstreetpro-640774/

The odds someone will give away a real daytrading edge for free seem quite small, so small one might actually do better(but maybe still not be profitable) if he did the opposite of what the guru said. As far as I'm aware a daytrading edge that appears to work and is free is the Don Bright opening order system, I have not traded that but it has been working for a long-time and it seems that it takes advantage of a market liquidity inneficiency
 
I'm sure you've read VN's chapter on the Principle of Ever-Changing Cycles.

I'll give some of these gurus a pass. Chances are that their system worked at some point, but widespread use and the Principal of Ever-Changing Cycles pretty much guarantees that it won't work by the time you get your hands on it.
 
Quote from Daal:

"My findings suggest that credit conditions play an important role in constraining recovery from recessions associated with financial crises. Industries that rely more on external finance grow more slowly during recoveries from these episodes relative to all other recoveries, suggesting that credit conditions remain stressed well after the trough of the recession. The effects are strongest during the first year of the recovery phase and become insignificant only after three years. Importantly, this differential growth rate is significantly different from what we observe during a typical recovery."

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4232

kannan%20fig%201.JPG


The question now is how delusional was Jim Grant when he wrote his from bear to bull wsj op-ed
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Economies around the planet are all doing better right now than anyone could have expected several months ago. Stocks are through the roof (US equities have done fantastic and they are among the poorest performers in the world). Grant's individual stock and bond picks have outperformed the market by several orders of magnitude (not to mention the XLF calls he recommended buying in March when guys like you were selling them :D).

I don't think the onus is on Jim Grant to explain anything.
 
Quote from ralph00:


I don't think the onus is on Jim Grant to explain anything.
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Goodluck with grant type investing. Be wrong about the macro direction, say stuff like 'The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery'(contradicting tons of studies) and then hope a speculative boom will bailout your bad investments. If 2010 GDP growth is not 4-5%+ sorry but Grant was wrong, it doesnt matter if a bubble bails him out
 
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