The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

[Daal]

Chicago PMI just NAPALMED the market

 

[makloda]

lol @ businessweek! "Death of the bear market" would have been a more appropriate title, just to stay true to the 79 cover

 

[Daal]

Another trendline test(3rd) after a bounce on the TL. The so called porn pattern, if it breaks the former ET member anekdoten claims there is a 80% chance of a big move to the downside

 

[Daal]

Rosenberg on hiring

"The reason for all this 'imperfection' in initial jobless claims as being less of a tried and true leading indicator in a cycle like this is that it only measures firings. It says nothing about hirings. Even though claims managed to decline 170k from that September 2001-August 2003 period, the reason why it took so long for employment to find a trough was because the hiring levels (as per the JOLTS data) fell by just as much.
•
Claims tell you nothing about hirings — that is the point. Meanwhile, what we do know about hirings is that (i) the Manpower intentions survey for 3Q sank to its lowest level ever (at -3, breaking below the prior all-time low of -2 established in 3Q 1980), and (ii) we see from the WSJ that business start-ups are down 14% from a year ago (and they account for 1 in 7 of every new hire made)."

The economy is not even through its firing problem(170K expected this month) nevermind dealing with the hiring problem of having to generate 100-150K net hirings every month. Somehow that is not preventing the loud mouth hawks from bluffing about their hiking intentions, maybe they should take a look at their mandate again

 

[Daal]

Kohn a bit hawkish

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20090930a.htm

'So we must begin to withdraw accommodation well before aggregate spending threatens to press against potential supply, and well before inflation as well as inflation expectations rise above levels consistent with price stability'
Althogh he does imply that they will wait till inflation is rising to hike

Greenspan is also calling the stock top, that must mean we hit 1100 before 1000

 

[Daal]

Contrarian indicators aside ES is testing the TL again. It tried to make another run to the highs but it came short, so there is this additional factor(the lower high at 1060)

 

[ralph00]

In case anyone is paying attention, since this pathetic and OBVIOUSLY ORCHESTRATED campaign by the Fed to talk up their hawkish views was started, Dec 2010 Eurodollar futures are higher. The Fed is saying one thing, the market another. The Fed will follow the market, not the other way around.

Once again, the Fed is a click or two behind the cycle.

 

[Daal]

Well, I'm long ES(1047.50) at the touch of this TL here. I figure, either we get another rally and I make some or we lose the TL and my other trades benefit. Will be either a daytrade or a 2-3day trade

 

[Daal]

Quote from ralph00:

In case anyone is paying attention, since this pathetic and OBVIOUSLY ORCHESTRATED campaign by the Fed to talk up their hawkish views was started, Dec 2010 Eurodollar futures are higher. The Fed is saying one thing, the market another. The Fed will follow the market, not the other way around.

Once again, the Fed is a click or two behind the cycle.

I agree, they probably decided to do this at the FOMC meeting, "lets bring out the guns and see how the market takes it" so far they dont buy it

 

[Daal]

Amusing that they would do that at the time that "The Fed’s preferred price measure, which excludes food and fuel, climbed 0.1 percent from the previous month and was up 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year gain since September 2001. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akSN4i2.g0Ak