The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Daal:Rosenberg seems to be joining the long-run inflation no Japan camp
If you read between the lines, over his entire letter then I think you are misinterpreting him by saying he switched from the "low inflation, Japan-style 10-20 year bubble implosion" camp to the "a decade of out of control, above average inflation, starting in 3 years" fanclub.

He puts together a secular anti-inflationary theme of household debt being paid off, a generation of babyboomers increasing savings, reducing spending, shifting investments into "safe", income generating assets, historic levels of slack in labor and global production capacity, an entire Western world operating with way less leverage and capital. In his estimation, this is nothing that is taken care of within two or three short years. He explicitly says he sees the (household and corporate sector) deleveraging process playing out over a minimum of 5-10 years (in the US).
 
He does say "Despite all of the Fed’s efforts to fight the credit contraction, there seems to be little success so far. Everyone measures Ben Bernanke’s success by how much the central bank’s balance sheet has been expanded – but results are what counts. Creation of money without a commensurate creation of credit is what the Japanese story since 1990 is all about — it’s called a liquidity trap. The data would suggest that is what we have on our hands today nearly two years into the Fed easing cycle.
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Its just that now he seems to be accepting that the money printing free lunch argument is hard to debunk, I'm haven't found a resonable argument that is not based on political problems for the Fed(Which I will admit, is a risk)
He is essentially saying 'Japan for now but at some point in 5-10 years we will switch', the bubbles burst in 2005 and 2007 so 2012 doesnt sound unresonable as a data for a pickup of inflation, but I'm in the japan for now inflation later camp too. I'm simply pointing out that rosenberg seems to be accepting that deflation can be reversed and in the long-run we are not likely to see it
 
If he were more into the long-run deflation is likely I believe he would taken a shot at the Greenspan inflation by saying stuff like 'How does Greenspan can be worried about inflation with a widening U6 over unemployment spread and record low utilization rates is beyond us' instead he says 'Alan Greenspan may be correct that inflation rears its head in 2012 but this cash hoarding is deflationary for the here and now'
 
One thing about japan is that, they haven't took advantage of the liquidity trap temporary free lunch. The BOJ should have all the JGBs in its balance sheet, monetize all the debt, this would save huge money in interest payments on the national debt as the BOJ would send the MOF the payments back(net of expenses). They havent done that however which shows a bit how they dont seem very committed
The Fed is buying $300b out of $10T. I believe they will take advantage of this free lunch if deflation doesnt go away, and I believe they won't stop there
 
Some people are speculating the rise in program trading is behind the rise and goldman is manipulating the market. Those people are usually bears or short sellers that seem to be looking for someone to blame their losses(zero hedge, reggie midleton). Sure program trading is rising but that is likely to be just a reflection that the rise has been a momentum type rally, it doesnt indicate manipulation because it would be very hard to manipulate the most liquid stock market in the world. A central bank like the SNB is having a tough time driving the swiss franc down and they control a printing press, the fed also lost control of mortgage rates, it doesnt seem to be easy to overwhealm market forces, if stock holders thought stocks were too high they would step in and take over the volume % share and sell like they did during the lehman crisis. Goldman or momentum traders cant prevent the avg joe or Legg Mason from selling

The momentum rally does seem to have created an optimism that made the rally go from 'lets price in 2nd derivative improvements' to 'there will be a V shaped recovery' so one could call this manipulation but this was more of a side effect(likely created by human nature) rather than a original intention. no one at goldman sat in his chair at GS in mar 09 and thought 'let me step in front of this 18 month free falling market and create a rally to inejct hope in this crisis of confidence'
 
time for some actual short picks again?:D

rumors out today a big bank is in trouble.

"Meanwhile, there's chatter that an unnamed bank may be in trouble. NY Fed concedes that one bank charged another 7% on an overnight loan Tuesday; the last time that happened was on Sept. 15, the day Lehman went under. As Karl Denninger says: "Keep your nose to the ground and your eyes open. Someone is in trouble.""
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

time for some actual short picks again?:D

Looking at a chart of KBE makes me salivate, RIP green shoots
If I havent already built a ridiculous position in fed futures, I would be shorting the heck out of stocks now. I already got plenty of bearish exposure but perhaps I should be shorting more anyway
 
'green' shoots lol
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I vote for the 'great' employment report reaction as the day the green shooters want officially mental ill, and even THEY agree with that today
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

time for some actual short picks again?:D

Heres a quick list
JPM
COF
MET
ACC
CAL
GS

I talked about them a while back, now COF is in profit CAL/ACC/MET at a small loss, GS/JPM at sizable losses right now but I can't really see a bottom in this stock market at fair values it might very well be that things will bottom out at undervalued levels. I really want where XLF trades at once they see the $150b+ net loss coming for the 19 banks tested
 
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