The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Not sure what you're entry is on WB, but WFC seems to have the go with C on the acquisition for $7 a share. We'll have to see if it goes through.
 
I'm missing the huge rally fed funds because I thought the VIX was unsustainable, dammit
this is getting more and more scary, even if one makes money out of this if we get a global collapse government will screw everybody, taxes, etc
I'm scared should I be?
 
It's all fun and games to see that number on your screen grow larger but this whole system is on the side of the cliff hanging on for dear life. We should all be afraid.
 
# Panic of 1819 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
# Panic of 1825 - pervasive British economic recession in which many British banks failed, & Bank of England nearly failed
# Panic of 1837 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; a 5 yr. depression ensued.
# Panic of 1857 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
# Panic of 1873 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; a 4 yr. depression ensued.
# Panic of 1893 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
# Panic of 1901 - limited to crashing of the New York Stock Exchange
# Panic of 1907 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
# Panic of 1929 -pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; worst depression in history ensued.
# Panic of 2008 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; X ensued.
 
this post lehman world could see a vix that is higher than the past. 30 could be the new 20. I realize now that danger of my strategy of taking profits on bearish positions everytime the vix hit 35, I was taking my hedge off just about the time everything was about to implode and most of the gains are made
I realize now that it isnt smart to expect things to get worse but to expect the vix to peak at 35 everytime
Hoping for the mother of all rallies, then I can get into the 'short europe' trade with Swedbank and bet on more fed cuts
 
Interesting post Daal.

What is Swedbank? Are you looking to short any particular European companies?

Two Irish names on my radar include AIB and IRE


Quote from Daal:

this post lehman world could see a vix that is higher than the past. 30 could be the new 20. I realize now that danger of my strategy of taking profits on bearish positions everytime the vix hit 35, I was taking my hedge off just about the time everything was about to implode and most of the gains are made
I realize now that it isnt smart to expect things to get worse but to expect the vix to peak at 35 everytime
Hoping for the mother of all rallies, then I can get into the 'short europe' trade with Swedbank and bet on more fed cuts
More...
 
I posted the swedbank situation a while back here. they are financing the baltic states huge current account deficits. they also got lots of loans in the sweden housing bubble, baltics are also getting into recession and housing going down. these guys have foreign exchange risk, credit risk(negative equity, recession), they resemble the iceland banks
I'm worried about a short sale ban though
 
funny how the everything is fine mentality returned. we could see the Worst is Over Part II and a rally for a month or this rally lasts a few sessions and the avalanche of bad news prevents it from rallying much more, I dont know which one we will get but I'm staying out of adding bearish positions
When this train stops I'm going back at fed futures
 
ES 840 (or so) to 1050 on an intraday basis from Friday's low to Tuesday's high. A nice 25% gain in less than 3 days.

One of many things that I've found amusing over the last 15 months is that every single intermediate term bottom has been called as 'the bottom', even though it's only possible to know that for sure many months after the fact.


Quote from Daal:

funny how the everything is fine mentality returned. we could see the Worst is Over Part II and a rally for a month or this rally lasts a few sessions and the avalanche of bad news prevents it from rallying much more, I dont know which one we will get but I'm staying out of adding bearish positions
When this train stops I'm going back at fed futures
More...
 
Back at being fully long fed funds JUL 09 contract. My hedge leg lost money again, I think I'm done trying to time fed futures moves off the VIX. if the market rallies 10% from here I guess I will just have to lose my money
 
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