The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from ralph00:

PIMCO got it horribly wrong (at least in their publicly available pronouncements) in predicting the rate rise cycle starting in 03/04. Greenspan is truly the emperor w/o clothes - the guy hasn't had a correct economic prediciton in forever. Even if you believed in an omniscient PIMCO and Greenspan, do you really think they are going to show their real cards to the world?
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Look, everyone makes bad predictions. But Gross has been killing the market since the 70's. And Greenspan's opinions are VERY likely to correlate with most of the FOMC, that is my point. Not that he cant go wrong but that whatever his opinion is, is likely to be similar to Bernanke and co
And he is not in the hawk camp at this point, says UR will stay high for quite a while so does Bernanke

The pimco-greenspan trick probably provides an edge in the 6-8 month ZQ contracts that is not currently priced in the market even though its public information
 
Siegel writes a good article here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f4b12dc-b210-11de-a271-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

I defended him back in Feb or Mar when he said the market was not expensive in a PE basis because financials writedowns were distorting the PE numbers. He was right yet everyone made fun of him, that seemed a contrary indicator. Right now I dont see many folks scorning him

And I agree with him, US equities for the next 10 years are likely to make money. But since people only care about the short-run I remain bearish as economic/earnings data is likely to dissapoint for the next 6-12 months and a wave of fear ala 2002 seems likely
 
PDF version also available here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deep-thoughts-kyle-bass-0

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/hayman.pdf

March 2009:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deep-thoughts-kyle-bass

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/03/kyle-bass-hayman-capital-letter-to.html




Quote from ralph00:

Its just an amazing amount of liquidity sloshing around. All financial asset classes going up. Lots of fun until it isn't anymore. Either stocks and commoditites are due for a big fall or one day the bond market is going to wake up and literally crash. Unprecedented times.

Here's Kyle Bass' most recent letter to investors. He does a pretty good job explaining the historic nature of central bank pumping and of how he sees it playing out ...

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/10/kyle-bass-hedge-fund-hayman-capital-50.html
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Some people seem to take the concept of 'liquidity trap' too far. Yes banks arent lending and people are paying off debt(effectively converting M1/M2 to bank reserves) but the fed does hold certain degree of control over M1 and M2. Back in late 2008 when the fed sent the monetary base soaring M1 and M2 also soared. If a bank decides to convert some of their excess reserves into income yielding assets such as USTs or GSE MBS/debt they will be sending their monetary base to a non-bank which then makes it M1 or M2(If the asset seller was a bank, the transaction doesnt change much). So monetary base pump becomes money supply pump

And banks have been buyers of UST and GSE stuff. Even with net credit going down you can still see a rising M1 and M2
 
The Fed purchases also can increase the money supply. When the primary dealers are selling for a client that increases M1 or M2 directly

When they are selling their own stock they will increase their excess reserves which they might decide to generate yield with by buying USTs or GSE from a non-bank(at some point in the future), converting their bank reserves to M1 and M2 likely through the Fedwire payment system

So IMO, the Fed can prevent deflation if they want regardless of zombie banks, by just buying the whole market, then M1 and M2 will soar
 
Even though deflation could became an issue in 2010 that is very much reversible
The Fed's doubling of its balance sheet lead to M1 to grow at almost 60% annual rate for a period. M2 at 25%, even though the financial system was locked up

And even though the velocity of M1/M2 declined its very much alive and well, as shown by the simple fact that nominal GDP is $14T, nominal GDP = M * V

The reason M2 has been weak is because the fed has been reluctant to increase the balance sheet more as the green shoot kool-aid has been passed around
 
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