The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

U6-UR spread widened even more, this could also be used as a leading indicator, since there is no improvement it shows the worst labor market since the 30's is getting worse. Lacker might want to read the part of the mandate that says Fed is responsible for full employment before he checks in at the John Hopkins Mental Center
 
Of course his partner McCulley was on the tape in late August ringing a bell for the "end of the secular bond bull market".:confused:
 
VERY interesting research by William Hester

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/forwardearningsmargins.htm

To me it seems like a nobrainer that when people get disappointed they will trash this stock market, specially in the context of a secular bear in stock and a financial crisis that is not over. So even though they say "Outside of very large changes in earnings, there is essentially no correlation between year-over-year changes in earnings and changes in stock prices" they also have research showing that economic data that is better or worse than expected correlates well with the stock market
 
Quote from ralph00:

Of course his partner McCulley was on the tape in late August ringing a bell for the "end of the secular bond bull market".:confused:
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Maybe they disagree on this, they run different funds after all
 
About the last employment report
"Unemployment would have topped 10 percent if not for the more than half million Americans who left the workforce."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=aIQSkFg5czbg

The way to see through the issue of people dropping out of the labor force is to look at the sum of employed people to total population. This is a statistic that Chairman Bernanke personally looks at

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/Ssdx8bg1ZXI/AAAAAAAAIHo/dCwSgkMNFlI/s1600-h/emppop.png
 
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2009/dud091005.html

Bernanke(chairman), Kohn(vice chairman) and Dudley(NY Fed) are all dovish. Looks like there are a few adults running the fed afterall

Dudley even points out that the labor force is quite likely to rise on the labor market gets better. All these UR numbers are coming in better than otherwise because people are sick of not finding jobs and are staying at home and giving up, once NFP gets positive they will flood the market. UR at 11% is quite possible

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/10/labor-force-shrinkage.html

He also talks about inflation and uses this chart

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=178339
 
Aussies raised rates (unexpectedly) last night. Its pretty obvious that Australia is benefitting from the craziness in China more than most, but they're economy has as much of a consumer debt problem as the US. It can happen.
 
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