The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Consumer spending down 0.2% in March more than forecast, wages and salaries down 0.5%

Basically the evidence the green shooters celebrated yesterday just turned against them, of course I will be surprised if the market doesnt ignore this and tries to come up with another excuse to keep the rally going
 
Quote from Daal:

Consumer spending down 0.2% in March more than forecast, wages and salaries down 0.5%

Basically the evidence the green shooters celebrated yesterday just turned against them, of course I will be surprised if the market doesnt ignore this and tries to come up with another excuse to keep the rally going
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haha they delayed stress test results. they better watchout the dead cat bounce momentum is almost gone.
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

haha they delayed stress test results. they better watchout the dead cat bounce momentum is almost gone.
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Yeah, this rally could be running out of steam. XLF highest close was back in April 13, yesterday you had the market up 2% then finish the day flat. The historical indicators I'm looking at are suggesting that buyers at these conditions lose money more often than not
This market is sounding a bit like XLE last year, we were told how much they had in upside because the fundamentals were so strong, it was a one way bet
 
ISM Mfg hits 40 and consumer sentiment improves, it looks like the free fall depression is over but it's still a deep recession. 40 is lower than where the ISM Mfg stay through most of 2008 pre lehman(about 48). The ISM non-mfg also is at 40 after rallying from the low at around 33 but its still bellow where it stayed most of 2008 pre lehman(it grew a few months there)

The rally is justified in the sense the market went from a depression valuation to a recession valuation, the market is wrong though when it bets there will be a recovery in GDP or earnings coming soon
 
Most of the analyst comments I read point out that a "recovery is on its way -- time to invest". The big assumption here is a V-Shaped recovery. 50 years of V-Shaped recession/recovery cycles (with the exception of the 1981/82 double dip) did their job to condition analysts to think inside the box of recent history it appears.
 
The initial results were given to the banks last month. Wells Fargo has until Tuesday to convince officials the results were mistaken and that it doesn't need more capital. Wells Fargo spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard declined to comment.

All the banks will be told Tuesday of regulators' final decisions on how much capital they need to raise. Thursday's announcement will be made by Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The government will release more than 100 pages of information, according to a person briefed on the plans who requested anonymity because he wasn't allowed to discuss it publicly.
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

news out that WFC supposed to raise capital in stress test . If so can the rest of the 19 be much better??
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Yeah probably quite a few will need too. With these lastest obama moves of helping out the unions and trying to strip collateral from Chrysler secured creditors I'm not even sure that 'take over' authority is the way to go anymore like hussman and roubini wants. If the government gets the authority to take over bank holding companies or any corporation it thinks its important for the system, what prevents the government from blackmailing corporations so they can get away with helping out special interests groups?In theory they could take over fox news if they wanted to

Essentially the government would have Ugo Chavez levels of power that would be very dangerous, it seems that debt to equity swaps being done in a basis like the preferreds would raise all the equity needed without exposing the US to crony capitalism
 
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