The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Debaser82:

Happy 2011, Daal. I hope you will keep this topic alive and interesting as you managed to do in 2010.
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Thanks, Happy 2011 for all.
Starting this journal helped a ton, having to write out why this or that trade is a good one helped me a lot as I made more research and it became clearer in my head, as a result I made bigger bets when I thought I was right. Sometimes I was able to spot flaws too and sometimes other people were able to show the flaws in my thinking as well.

Overall I found this helpful, even though there is one downside and it is that its harder to change your mind because once you state your opinion in public you get your ego attached to it and its harder to change it as you dont want to look like an idiot, but I have gotten better at that over time
 
I dont seem to recall the fed minutes talking about the money supply since the crisis began. This one said 'M2 expanded at a moderate rate in November'
 
As usual, people run their mouth when out of the fomc but become more conservative when they get into the committee. From WSJ:
"Fed Chief Gets a Likely Backer
When Narayana Kocherlakota gets his first crack at voting at Federal Reserve policy meetings later this month, he is likely to support the Fed's controversial $600 billion bond-buying program, giving Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke a key ally."

Says on the Q&A the QE2 was likely the right decision
 
I'm back from vacation. For this 2011 my 2 bets are long ZQ dec 2011(in large size) and short EUR(medium size) I have some additional small stock positions but the bulk of the risk are on those 2.

I'm not a fan of being long equities, real estate or commodities here though there might be a case for USTs(since I'm very long interest rate risk anyway I will just stay out of the 10/30y)
I dont know where the dollar will go against other currencies, if I had to guess I'd say up
 
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