The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

My SPY 70.00 puts also doubled. But I do remember getting hurt by buying XLF puts even though in the end it looks like my thesis is working right now. Timing is hard, in the end you might be forced to purchase expirations that gives you plenty of time, and that comes at the cost
 
Well, didn't you purchase those XLF puts in March 2009? ... options are nice, but a bad move is a bad move.:D

Another issue w/options is the lack of liquidity in these far out-of-the-money strikes. The bid/asks can be quite wide. I'm still learning, but I've been putting in bids well below the ask ... they seem to get hit eventually. I would guess that much of the time, I'll either miss the train because my bid doesn't get hit, or I'll pay through the nose by having to buy at the ask.

The Sept 45 VXX calls are $1.40/1.65 right now.
The Sept 70 AUD puts are .0026/.0032 right now.
 
Dollar getting smacked around again this morning.

In news out of Oz ... stocks (especially the big miners) and the AUD surged on the open when the gov't announced a sharp reduction in the proposed mining tax. Interest rate futures plunged. By the end of the day, each asset class had completely retraced their moves to end unchanged on the day. So much for that.

Looks like markets are as idiotic there as they are here. Did anybody for one second believe that the miners were going to get hit w/a punitive tax? The miners OWN Oz. They had the power to ax a Prime Minister for crying out loud. If the miners stocks have been getting hit the past few weeks, its because the artificial commodity boom has busted, not because anybody was seriously worried about this tax.
 
1238 GMT [Dow Jones] Don't read too much joy in the drop in jobless rate to 9.5%. It reflects people dropping out of the labor force--probably giving up because hiring is so sparse. According to the household survey, households reported 301,000 fewer jobs in June and labor force dropped 652,000.(kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com)
 
"ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator Ever Closer To The -10% Threshold, Drops To -7.7"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ec...reshold-drops-77-leads-another-leg-lower-stoc

I'm sure Barry Ritholtz will blog how thats irrelevant and how some models that never failed should be ignored and we should trust his insight(specially his paid insight) on why there will be no double dip but a slowdown(from a 1.2% avg real final sales growth)

Truth is, the current growth rate is already a slowdown
 
The article implies that he manages money for this hedge fund. I wasn't aware that anyone would actually let him come anywhere near handling the money. It was my impression that he just bloviates (usually mistakenly).

Biggs is irrelevant, except as a possible contrary indicator. I'm trying to decide whether he or Byron Wien is more harmful to one's financial health.
 
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