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The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Hatzius sees a modest decline in home prices
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-housing-prices-will-keep-falling-for-two-years-2010-6
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-housing-prices-will-keep-falling-for-two-years-2010-6
I have no idea where to get real final sales from 30's data but GDP expanded very strongly after bottoming in 1933. So this recovery could be the weakest recovery in like a century or something. So it would be the most exposed to a double dip or to a stagnant level, "escape velocity" looks like a unlikely event to say the least. So the folks that think the market will earn $90+ for next year might want to come back to reality
Quote from Daal:
I have no idea how John Paulson can be bullish on housing and say double dip risks are "10%", which he apparently said in a speech yesterday. Until I can read a sound, detailed view explaining this view, I can't do anything other than just ignore it
Definitely ignore.
He did a great job nailing the housing bust, but that does not make him any kind of economic Svengali. I wouldn't regard his opinion at this point as terribly important. Don't forget that his role in the housing short trade was managerial. The brains behind the thesis for the trade was Pelligrini, who has since left Paulson's firm.
One of the things regarding the Fed Futures is that its almost certaintly better to buy the WAY back futures rather than the ones in the 6-8 month in the future range, if you believe the Fed stays low. The reason is that the risk reward there is just massive. I'm considering doing that, the problem is that their liquidity is low, really low, spreads are bigger. You cant afford to be wrong there because getting out after a news event is almost impossible(without paying up a lot)
But I'm considering taking a small position there and treating as an option. The May 2012 will pay more than $4,000 per contract if the Fed doesnt hike anything by then. And it has protection against 100bps worth of hikes, so even if the Fed were to pull a Hoenig, you are still doesnt lose a penny(you make $1,000 per contract actually).
Its an alternative to levering up like crazy in the more near term contracts like I'm doing. I will think about that more and see if I put some bets there
But I'm considering taking a small position there and treating as an option. The May 2012 will pay more than $4,000 per contract if the Fed doesnt hike anything by then. And it has protection against 100bps worth of hikes, so even if the Fed were to pull a Hoenig, you are still doesnt lose a penny(you make $1,000 per contract actually).
Its an alternative to levering up like crazy in the more near term contracts like I'm doing. I will think about that more and see if I put some bets there