The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

GE Dec 11 99 calls sell for about .20, more than 50% higher than the Dec 10 calls were selling for this time last year.

I wouldn't be a buyer of the "fed stays at zero forever" thesis at these prices.
 
US default is a possibility
http://www.capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/1787/debt-default-it-can-happen-here

Yes, its unlikely but some folks claim the US CDS pricing is irrational because the US has a central bank and borrow in dollars, famous last words, Russia defaulted in its Ruble debt even with a central bank. Furthermore its possible that when the crisis hits the then in place FOMC would refuse to monetize debt, requiring the congress to implement some kind of change to fire most people, and that could take time
 
Quote from ralph00:

GE Dec 11 99 calls sell for about .20, more than 50% higher than the Dec 10 calls were selling for this time last year.

I wouldn't be a buyer of the "fed stays at zero forever" thesis at these prices.
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If there is a time where models will fail its right now. So I dont agree much with the SF Fed research for no hikes till late 2012, specially after Bernanke saying they hike before employment is back to normal last week
 
Of course, Dan Loeb made obscene profits when the Feds bailed out the banking system, but now he's upset because things may get tough on the regulatory side. So its 'free market capitalism' except when the companies in which he holds stakes need a few hundred billion or a suspension in accounting rules in order to survive. Socialism for the rich. Capitalism for everyone else. Scumbag.
 
Quote from Daal:

If there is a time where models will fail its right now. So I dont agree much with the SF Fed research for no hikes till late 2012, specially after Bernanke saying they hike before employment is back to normal last week
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Bernanke will follow the markets. Since no one knows what markets will do, no one knows what Bernanke will do.

Plus, as we've seen over the past few weeks, a final price of 0.75 on these GE 99 calls was and is a pipe dream. The risk/reward isn't there unless the price of the Dec 11 calls falls back to single digits.
 
Quote from Daal:

Surprise surprise, the guys who loved financials are realizing the government will screw them for years. They made money because the market made a mistake of taking them to very levels that are not justified by the future capital and regulatory requirements that will nail them for a long-time

http://www.businessinsider.com/dan-...ely-destroy-the-financial-system-and-i-2010-6
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Leaders of the prior bubble usually underperform for 5-10 years (sometimes more) after the first year or so of the new bull market.

If that pattern holds, then XLF and XHB are solid short plays for the next few years. I like the idea of shorting them against more promising longs, they will probably have low returns and you have a 20-30% chance they will collapse again (although they are unlikely to fall anywhere near as much as in 2008).
 
I'm looking to short some more the homebuilders in this upleg and also go back to a full position on the EUR short, hard to say how high this pig will go
 
Now rogers told CNBC he is actually buying the EUR. Maybe it works for a few weeks if that, but Spain continues to be under pressure, bonds down. If Spain doesnt turn the EUR will turn into the stock market in 2008 when the news were so bad it just could not rally, even though there were contrarian and historical oversold reasons for a rally
 
How do you short the homebuilders? Individual stocks? Indexes? Put options?

I can't get over the binary nature of markets right now. In the short term, being long EUR is no different than being long AUD or being long AAPL or being long copper. Everything moves in complete lockstep and the computers make sure that nothing gets out of line very far.

A friend is bearish treasuries for all the typical common wisdom reasons we hear each day and asked me about buying TBT. Without getting into whether treasuries are a good short or not, I just pointed out the incredible correlation in all asset classes right now. I fail to see how purchasing TBT is in any way different than buying AAPL in the short run.

The key in trading right now is to have a longer term view and take advantage of the short term correlations. If stocks are banging up and taking Australian interest rates with them, and I have a long term bullish view on Aussie rate futures, I can use that move up in rates to put on more longs in 90 day bills.

Here are a couple of charts I've been looking at a lot this week.:p

S&P 500 vs AUD

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SP&o=QAD&a=D&z=800x550&d=medium&b=bar&st=


S&P 500 vs Copper

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SP&o=HG&a=D&z=800x550&d=medium&b=bar&st=
 
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