The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Well, the UE fell as well.

i believe the UE is pretty irrelevant. Watch stocks. If the DJIA continues in a bear move, even Hoenig is going to shut up. If the DJIA starts heading towards 12K again, hikes are on the table. If it meanders around here (most likely outcome), we can discuss other factors.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Well, the UE fell as well.

i believe the UE is pretty irrelevant. Watch stocks. If the DJIA continues in a bear move, even Hoenig is going to shut up. If the DJIA starts heading towards 12K again, hikes are on the table. If it meanders around here (most likely outcome), we can discuss other factors.
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Hoenig doesnt seem to be operating with any kind of logic lately. All I know if that if ES goes to 900 ish the 10y breakeven might get dangerously close to 1%. At that point I wouldn't be surprised if the dovish wing of the Fed starts QE2 talks
 
Daal you don't think the strong USD is a worry for the FED?

They don't believe anymore a weak currency is beneficial towards revamping the export sector?
 
Quote from Debaser82:

Daal you don't think the strong USD is a worry for the FED?

They don't believe anymore a weak currency is beneficial towards revamping the export sector?
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It should help they keep easy money for longer as it will fuel disinflation but not for the reason you are mentioning. The FOMC are all trained economists(at least till Obama started appointing nobodies), not mercantilist politicians.
It seems that some there are not worried about low core inflation because inflation expectations didnt come down as much, that seems crazy to me but maybe 0.5% or 0% core might change that
 
Another interesting study against the stock market. From Gluskin Sheff
"As all the economists boast about how wonderful it is to have ISM at such a lofty level, from our lens as market-watchers, a 60+ reading is not good news at all because the laws of gravity show that there is nowhere to go but down. This is the reverse from when the ISM was flirting near the 30 mark, as it was in late 2008, and with perfect hindsight, that was the time to go long the market! In fact, history shows that in the year after hitting 30 on the downside, the S&P 500 rallies 24%, on average, in the ensuing 12 months. But when we hit 60, as we did in April, the historical record shows that the S&P 500 is down 1.5% a year out. Go figure."
 
Quote from Daal:

Gold totally decoupling from silver today
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Gold is money, silver is change.

But don't tell this to the silverbulls or they'll start raving about how silver translates as money in about a language or 60.
 
Stock market suffering here. This time around I wont make the same mistake of staying bearish too long, as soon as I start to see stuff like
-Sentiment surveys tip over to the bear side in a major way
-Valuation measures suggesting 7-9% stock returns possible for the next 10years
-Stocks significantly below their moving averages

I'm going to start covering shorts, selling some puts and buying up some shares
 
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