The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Yeah, I'm not sure that anything Krugman says is worthy of this thread. Nobel Prize or not, the man is the worst kind of ideologue - anybody or any idea with a D after his name equals good, anything or anybody with an R after his name equals bad. We're seeking the truth here, and Krugman's horribly biased ramblings don't help a lot.
 
You are going to love this then
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html
"Galbraith: The danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’"

"JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.

So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity."

Apparently that logic doenst apply to his support of regulation where he is quite willing to design policy to prevent irrational markets from creating bad outcomes
 
Quote from ralph00:
The bottom line is that if there was any "blow-up' by this guy, it was in 2006, when his fund lost 15%, and it had nothing to do with LIBOR blowing out. His new fund excelled in 07 and 08 when that would have been an issue.
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Took me a while to check...

There was never any new fund. It's always been SemperMacro and its AUM has gone down from arnd $2bn to something utterly piddly and insignificant now. S-J is not on BBG any more and nobody in the mkt seems to know of the fund. My understanding is that his woes started in 2006 and continued through 2007 and mostly had to do with Eurodollars (outright positions and then options). Obviously, I could be wrong and I don't want to be badmouthing him and the fund, but that is my understanding of the situation.
 
Well, I posted this link and story. Are you saying this is a lie? Where is your link?

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/19-01-2009/sempermacro-posts-return-of

Hedge Funds
SemperMacro posts return of 50%

Mark Cobley
19 Jan 2009

SemperMacro, a hedge fund spun out of Fulcrum, the boutique of former BBC chairman Gavyn Davies in 2007, posted gains of more than 50% last year as global macro proved one of the few strategies to weather the downturn.

SemperMacro Capital, which is run by the former Goldman Sachs trader Christian Siva-Jothy, went through a bad patch in 2006 when investors pulled money following investment losses of 15.7%. The following year, Siva-Jothy and three colleagues – all former Goldman traders – spun it off as an independent venture and since then the fund has redeemed itself.
 
I have no link. I have spoken to people whose people know people, if you see what I'm sayin'. At any rate, you don't have to believe me.

Out of curiosity, does the article you have posted say anything about the fund's AUM?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I have no link. I have spoken to people whose people know people, if you see what I'm sayin'. At any rate, you don't have to believe me.

Out of curiosity, does the article you have posted say anything about the fund's AUM?
More...

Yeah, the guy could be trading mostly his own money these days
 
Quote from ralph00:

I don't know if anybody is into value investing, but I admire some of these guys a great deal (starting w/Buffet/Munger and working my way down). This guy took copious notes at the recent value investing meeting ...

http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-value-investing-congress-notes.html

He also took notes from Munger's Q&A at the WESCO annual meeting. I found them far more interesting than Buffet at the BRK meeting ...

http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-wesco-annual-meeting-notes.html

This guy has a profile of Li Lu and how he does analysis. Apparently, this guy is on Munger and Buffet's short list. Great stuff ...

http://streetcapitalist.com/2010/05/04/li-lu-berkshire-hathaway-cio-candidate/

I've been reading Confidence Game and one of Ackman's friends tells a story of renting a beach house w/Ackman, and Ackman spent most of the time on the porch reading financial reports - and that's his day job as well! I know how Ackman feels - there just aren't enough hours in the day.
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Nice links. It's a shame there's no value investing forum on this board.
 
Quote from ralph00:

China equities enter "official" bear market ...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/china-bear-market/

Oz projects budget surplus in 2 years, mostly because of the China-led boom in exports that the Aussies are now set to tax the hell out of ...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/au...surplus-in-2-years-2010-05-11?dist=beforebell

I have now begun building a position in Jun11 and Sep11 Oz 90 day bank bill futures.

:cool:
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I don't disagree with your trade, but I have a question - what exactly is "building a position" and what is the purpose of it? If today's price is a great opportunity, why avoid having a full position?
 
Quote from Daal:

You are going to love this then
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html
"Galbraith: The danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’"

"JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.

So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity."

Apparently that logic doenst apply to his support of regulation where he is quite willing to design policy to prevent irrational markets from creating bad outcomes
More...

I just read that and JG is clearly trying to earn his junior krugman badge. In a sense, he is correct - deficits don't matter ... until one day, they do. Its like the mortgage mess - income, credit, the size of the mortgage ... none of it mattered. Then one day, it did matter and 10 years of growth was wiped out in a few months.
 
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