The auctions are never over, these days... Next time, it's the 2s, 5s and 7s (and 5y TIPS) on the week of the 26th.
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The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I have no idea where they're getting their 52% from... Here's what their own calculations show. Moreover, that would agree more with the Cleveland Fed's numbers, although they don't go as far as the Sep meeting.Quote from Daal:
I got it from here
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aAyOAlOcURis
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Quote from Martinghoul:
I have no idea where they're getting their 52% from... Here's what their own calculations show. Moreover, that would agree more with the Cleveland Fed's numbers, although they don't go as far as the Sep meeting.
Well, 35% is a lot either way. Furthermore I believe I can safely disregard a 50bps hike by a bigger factor than the FF options might be pricing in
At some point, central banks are going to peek outside the tunnel vision of employment and look around to the massive rise in speculation that their policies (combined w/fiscal) have wrought. The market is in late 90s mode. Does Bernanke really want a repeat of that, and of what came after? Does he really want the growth and popping of another asset bubble? We're certainly well into the growth stage here. I could see them hiking a 100bp over the summer just to calm things the fuck down.
Quote from ralph00:
At some point, central banks are going to peek outside the tunnel vision of employment and look around to the massive rise in speculation that their policies (combined w/fiscal) have wrought. The market is in late 90s mode. Does Bernanke really want a repeat of that, and of what came after? Does he really want the growth and popping of another asset bubble? We're certainly well into the growth stage here. I could see them hiking a 100bp over the summer just to calm things the fuck down.
Check the fed mandate, Bernanke wont trying to pop the stock market with core inflation going down to around 0.5%(like Pimco and GS are forecasting). And the market is far from a bubble by Shiller PE standards
1st to say i don't understand, but wasn't the last bubble created by the banks to clean up like cash cows, and didnt it blow up in their faces,and didnt the sec and dc allow them to do whatever they wanted, and have any laws changed, and don't they need to pull another rabbit out of their hat or they are toast , common sense says we won't create another bubble, but greed says they have to,tl line under the bubbles from 87 to 02 lows is right here on spxQuote from Daal:
Check the fed mandate, Bernanke wont trying to pop the stock market with core inflation going down to around 0.5%(like Pimco and GS are forecasting). And the market is far from a bubble by Shiller PE standards
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I would suggest that a stock market that goes up every single day is not exactly normal. I would suggest commodity prices that are through the roof despite fundamentals that show plenty of spare capacity is not normal. I would suggest that a return of game-show like antics on CNBC (the bunny racing around the track to 11K and the appearance of our Treas. Sec. on Cramer's 5 year anniversary show, to name 2 recent examples) shows a return to late 90s type euphoria.
Are we at 2000 levels of absurd pricing - of course not. Something is growing here. I believe Bernanke does not want the blood of a third massive bubble in 10 years on the Fed's hands.
Are we at 2000 levels of absurd pricing - of course not. Something is growing here. I believe Bernanke does not want the blood of a third massive bubble in 10 years on the Fed's hands.
Quote from ralph00:
I would suggest that a stock market that goes up every single day is not exactly normal. I would suggest commodity prices that are through the roof despite fundamentals that show plenty of spare capacity is not normal. I would suggest that a return of game-show like antics on CNBC (the bunny racing around the track to 11K and the appearance of our Treas. Sec. on Cramer's 5 year anniversary show, to name 2 recent examples) shows a return to late 90s type euphoria.
Are we at 2000 levels of absurd pricing - of course not. Something is growing here. I believe Bernanke does not want the blood of a third massive bubble in 10 years on the Fed's hands.
Dude, this Fed is only beginning discussing the targeting of bubbles, there has been no speeches(to my knowledge) where Bernanke says the fed should address bubbles by using the fed funds tool. The only mention he did was back in Oct or Nov 2008(if my memory is right) where he said the fed would have to look more carefuly at asset prices when making decisions(or something like that). But to think that they will go from thinking asset markets are normal to call them a bubble and try to prick with 100bps of hikes in a few months is crazy. Yes its possible, but its also possible they will announce a -1% IOR to get banks lending again
Actually, Bernanke has spoken a few times about "leaning against asset bubbles". However, if my recollection is correct, his conclusion is that mkt prices are right and the best way to address bubbles is through regulation, rather than monetary policy.