the crash i called and continue

Quote from piezoe:

Will it be tomorrow, or will I have to wait a few months?:D
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In 3 months I will quote your post here and we can comment on the S&P 500 level at that point ( that's December 1st, 2010 ).
I can't wait to hear your excuses why you are so out of touch with the market conditiions in 2010.
 
Quote from riddler:

i continue to see further downside. told all of you at the end of april that my signals were called for a trip back to 10k. i then said by at 9750 and hold to 10,500 area. we broke 9750 and went to 9600.(i was close though). we did bounce all the way past my 10,500 to 10,700. i am now calling for a break of 9600 down to 9000 on the dow. i also think we se 8k but am not 100% on that as of yet. i will keep everyone posted.
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Is crash still coming?:D
 
Quote from failed_trad3r:

I suspect a trend change as happened in march 2009 or august 2009. We just need another day like today to confirm in next two days.

Anyway, from my perspective this is not a bear trend but a pullback in a bull market. So talking about a trend-change is a moot point.
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yesterday we got got confirmation. We are going to hit new highs in the next two months.:D
 
Quote from riddler:

i continue to see further downside. told all of you at the end of april that my signals were called for a trip back to 10k. i then said by at 9750 and hold to 10,500 area. we broke 9750 and went to 9600.(i was close though). we did bounce all the way past my 10,500 to 10,700. i am now calling for a break of 9600 down to 9000 on the dow. i also think we se 8k but am not 100% on that as of yet. i will keep everyone posted.
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Ok, you said 9600 will become 9000 and maybe 8000. So now its 10500, you lost 9% on your theory in short order if its just index
investments, much worse if you bought stocks or options.

So now what. Tell me what the index will be end of next week, end of the month, end of the year. If you are so confidant in your thesis, should you not liquidate everything you own and short the market first thing Monday ? Kind of a "sale" for market pessimists ?

My instincts are telling me the prevelance of irrational pessimism on Elite Trader and on CNBC tells me we are still in a bull market.
But index levels really don't matter we are now in a stock pickers market with sector rotation being very important ( to the fellow who claims we are not in a stock pickers market, do not live in the past what occurred then does not determine what happens now; I am seeing divergences in stocks already ).
 
Quote from milktruck:

Stock dispersion is at all time lows, the last thing it is right now is a stock pickers market, alpha is dead for the time being.

You dont think your bull rants on nothing but the fact that the market has gone up a lot recently reek of desperation?
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Stock dispersion measures past time periods and does not measure what occurs moving forward. The fact it is at an all time lows should tell you it will likely rise now as the indexes have been going nowhere all year ( they are in a channel ).

The market going up is simply a retracement ( again ) from the channel bottom to the channel top. There is no desperation involved in observing this, it is simply another money making opportunity. My observation is that declaring pending market crashes is usually a money losing game, very few can time the corrections. The main thrust of the drops usually occur premarket on some random day. For example, anyone believing the pessimists on this thread have been dinged for at least 10% since thread inception. Do that a few times you are going to need that 30% crash just to break even.

One strategy that might work is identify companies with very bad balance sheets and buy Leap Puts on them near the end of these up cycles.
 
i am shorting these false rallies. my theseis is still VERY MUCH intact. i am not wrong and look at these rallies at fabulous short opportunities.
 
look at the chart, inverse H&S pattern

u can short till 60 to 75 but if it breaks 1104 again this goes back to 1200
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Ok, you said 9600 will become 9000 and maybe 8000. So now its 10500, you lost 9% on your theory in short order if its just index
investments, much worse if you bought stocks or options.

So now what. Tell me what the index will be end of next week, end of the month, end of the year. If you are so confidant in your thesis, should you not liquidate everything you own and short the market first thing Monday ? Kind of a "sale" for market pessimists ?

My instincts are telling me the prevelance of irrational pessimism on Elite Trader and on CNBC tells me we are still in a bull market.
But index levels really don't matter we are now in a stock pickers market with sector rotation being very important ( to the fellow who claims we are not in a stock pickers market, do not live in the past what occurred then does not determine what happens now; I am seeing divergences in stocks already ).
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that's funny how someone who registered in May 2010 teaches people with many years of experience

the problem is that you don't have any experience or idea how market works
and you don't have any instincts

elitetrader is a community of people who have information
CNBC is permabull station and they are superbullish all the time

also - stock picking is dead right now. All assets moves are syncronized, thanks to HFT
 
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