The Costanza Effect

What if what you think is opposite, actually is the opposite.

For me it's just a lack of relating yourself to reality. In another words, you're just a bad trader.

Mind as well, admit and accept that you suck as a trader and have a bad life. Go on to make it better...

I trade what I feel and I trade well... yes I'm a conceited self-centered narcist.... LOL... j/k
 
It seems to work when you wager on the NFL. Really. Track the experts and the consensus. Take the ones that make you want to puke. This week's picks Balt,Wash,Carolina and Chicago. Houston is a maybe, can't figure why the Giants are giving so many. Kind of spooking me.:p
 
Funny, I was just thinking about this today -- I found that over the past 3 days I've had an uncanny ability to be wrong about nearly every trade that I've made (4 out of 5 wrong today, 5 out o 6 wrong yesterday, etc.) -- Almost makes me want to just fade myself and see where it goes.

Unfortunately, it won't work for me, since I am too obsessive about trying to correct my thinking. To enter a trade, I have to truly believe that it's going to go my way, and if I'm wrong I modify thinking. So to just continuously do the opposite of what I've been doing probably, in the end, wouldn't be the opposite after all. I think.

nlh
 
I think that there's a real trading analog here. Let me illustrate.

If I think that the market is trending well, judging from the recent pivot structure, then I go with my gut feel as to what I expect the market to do. Remember, our eye is a targeting instrument, it works best in analyzing the past and projecting ahead in a straight line. In those cases, I wait for a pullback that seems to play out according to Fibonacci's numbers, and then enter in the direction of the trend.

If I cannot see a clear pivot structure and I have the feeling that the market is trading sloppy, then I know that my only chance to profit is to catch a good reversal play and I tend to fade what I can hear my mind (or eye) telling me that the market is going to do. In those cases, I pay more attention to reversal patterns (e.g., double tops) or indicator vs price divergences, and their message.

What I mean is that there's room for listening to our mind and room for fading it; and also, maybe, an overall framework of how these two attitudes relate and coexist in the life of an experienced trader.
 
Quote from stocon:

It seems to work when you wager on the NFL. Really. Track the experts and the consensus. Take the ones that make you want to puke. T
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The trade that makes you puke, would be to buy at resistance and sell at support. Most traders enter a trade only after they get confirmation. This assures that in most cases that they've bought right as the market begin to approach resistance.

This is the way the market behaves for most swings. Only in the cases of a breakout/breakdown out of the current chart formation would jumping on the bandwagon work. But then you'd have to stick with the trade for a long time to make up for your losses which is another thing that is hard to do.
 
Quote from Stock_Lover:

What about that camera the market makers have sitting behind you near your computer?
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This is funny, I truly believe there is a camera in that swirling logo on REDI plus....and that everytime you go take a piss or go to lunch, the stock you sat watching do nothing finally shoots up or down while you are away (usually a nice fat move too, just to rub it in), just to resettle into a new resting place on your return. :mad:
 
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