The Conservative Principle

Are you a Conservative?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 54.3%

  • No

    Votes: 8 22.9%

  • Mostly

    Votes: 8 22.9%
  • Total voters
    35
The caveat comes in the form of voter turnout. The report claims that if turnout among Democrats and independents match their maximum historical highs, Trump would lose in a tight race.

"An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259," the report reads.

"Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump’s column versus our average turnout baseline."

.....

"Moody's said they have corrected their turnout models from 2016, which caused the forecast to incorrectly predict a victory by Hillary Clinton."

Trump win was anomaly not to be repeated again, they changed the rules in the middle of trading plan so to speak. And they will be wrong again.
 
RedDuke said:
The caveat comes in the form of voter turnout. The report claims that if turnout among Democrats and independents match their maximum historical highs, Trump would lose in a tight race.

"An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259," the report reads.

"Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump’s column versus our average turnout baseline."

.....

"Moody's said they have corrected their turnout models from 2016, which caused the forecast to incorrectly predict a victory by Hillary Clinton."

Trump win was anomaly not to be repeated again, they changed the rules in the middle of trading plan so to speak. And they will be wrong again.
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Its all gonna come down to the African-American vote. If blacks turn out, Trump is toast. That's why I have said Biden needs to secure Abrams as a running mate. That'll be the perfect mix. She'll turn out numbers like Obama did. Now TFT disagrees with me on this, but I beg to differ. The prospect of her being the first female VP and next in line for the throne is more than enough to rekindle that excitement again. Especially with Trump being the opponent. And her far left bent combined with Biden's not so much... will be presented as the perfect balance to win all the Bernie and Pokey voters once Joe gets the nomination.

Also, I have a feeling these kids that are first time (presidential) eligible, the 18 to 22 year olds.... I have a feeling they are gonna come out in force like we have never seen before. The left leaning ones.
 
vanzandt said:
Its all gonna come down to the African-American vote. If blacks turn out, Trump is toast. That's why I have said Biden needs to secure Abrams as a running mate. That'll be the perfect mix. She'll turn out numbers like Obama did. Now TFT disagrees with me on this, but I beg to differ. The prospect of her being the first female VP and next in line for the throne is more than enough to rekindle that excitement again. Especially with Trump being the opponent. And her far left bent combined with Biden's not so much... will be presented as the perfect balance to win all the Bernie and Pokey voters once Joe gets the nomination.

Also, I have a feeling these kids that are first time (presidential) eligible, the 18 to 22 year olds.... I have a feeling they are gonna come out in force like we have never seen before. The left leaning ones.
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Yes, Biden needs black VP to secure win, but not Abrams. With Biden age, it would be a real possibility for her to become a president. I sure do not to see her at the helm. Yes black turn out would be big, but it will be offset by moderates like me, who would not show up.
 
RedDuke said:
Yes, Biden needs black VP to secure win, but not Abrams. With Biden age, it would be a real possibility for her to become a president. I sure do not to see her at the helm. Yes black turn out would be big, but it will be offset by moderates like me, who would not show up.
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No way.... I totally disagree that moderates would stay home. We're talking 4 more years of Trump. That hate runs deep. No registered Dem is staying home this time.
 
vanzandt said:
No way.... I totally disagree that moderates would stay home. We're talking 4 more years of Trump. That hate runs deep. No registered Dem is staying home this time.
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Correct. But people like me who are tilting toward Dems will not vote for president Abrams. He needs a strong VP and then it is smooth, almost guaranteed, sailing to WH.
 
Bugenhagen said:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ltdown-over-house-vote-on-syria-idUSKBN1WV2N9

Pelosi says Trump had 'meltdown' over House vote on Syria

Steve Holland
3 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democratic leaders’ cut short a White House meeting after Republican President Donald Trump had a “meltdown” over a House of Representatives vote condemning his Syria withdrawal.

Trump called Pelosi a “third-rate politician” and the meeting deteriorated into a diatribe, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters.

“What we witnessed on the part of the president was a meltdown. Sad to say,” Pelosi told reporters as she and the other Democrats emerged from the White House.


The Democratic leader said Trump had a temper tantrum because so many Republicans joined Democrats to vote for a resolution condemning the president’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from northeastern Syria, clearing the way for Turkey’s offensive against U.S.-allied Syrian Kurds.

The vote was 354 to 60, with dozens of Trump’s fellow Republicans joining the majority Democrats. The split underscored deep unhappiness in Congress over Trump’s action, which many lawmakers view as abandoning Kurdish fighters who had been fighting alongside Americans to defeat Islamic State militants.

“I think that vote - the size of the vote, more than 2-1 of the Republicans voted to oppose what the president did - probably got to the president. Because he was shaken up by it,” Pelosi said after emerging from the White House.

“And that’s why we couldn’t continue in the meeting because he was just not relating to the reality of it.”

Republicans said Pelosi “stormed out.” Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he was disappointed to see Democratic leadership walk out of the meeting.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said how Pelosi addressed Trump was inappropriate and they had a productive meeting after she left.

There was no immediate response from the White House.Thursday and the Democrats said they were concerned Trump did not have a strategy going forward in the region.

“I asked the president what his plan was to contain ISIS. He didn’t really have one,” Schumer said.
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Once again, FAKE NEWS from The Idiot Left. ----Pelosi had a meltdown, not Trump. ---One thing that the Trump presidency has revealed in a big way is the fact that the media and Idiot Dems (one and the same), will out and out lie to diminish Republican's stature.
 
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Buy1Sell2 said:
Once again, FAKE NEWS from The Idiot Left. ----Pelosi had a meltdown, not Trump. ---One thing that the Trump presidency has revealed in a big way is the fact that the media and Idiot Dems (one and the same), will out and out lie to diminish Republican's stature.
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nuh uh, Pelosi said it 1st, so she has dibs. Trump had the meltdown. Check your messiah's twitter time stamp vs Pelosi's press conference.
 
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