DJIA 5 year back tests ,earlier was dax german 30 , outside the bo = my own formula based on black scholes
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OK, I can get behind the tangible. Just the weird tangential self-discussion that's a bit unnerving.
The consequences of giving away the holy grail
- Thread starter Trading Education Buyer
- Start date
OK, I can get behind the tangible. Just the weird tangential self-discussion that's a bit unnerving.
That is my enjoyment , understanding the human trading mind especially the trading brain in real time.
And for anyone that's awake reading this thread, your above statement should be all the proof they require as to what you are REALLY doing.
Either you HAVE a formula that WORKS (Rule based trading) and you don't need to manually massage the entries on the fly.
Or you just another discretionary trader masquerading as a rule based trader.
The WHOLE point of using a rule based system (or a .... Formula) is to keep and maintain a known edge to be exploited. It ensures (if its followed) that no emotion or bias is included in the trading process. However, if your using a rule based system BUT then making discretionary changes on the fly then it illustrates 2 things.
1 - Your formula is not correct. If it was correct, it would stand on its own and provide set entry/exit points that would require no further input or thinking on the traders behalf.
2 - For all your (Trading Education Buyer) talk of other traders being a slave to their emotions, trend following, directional bias and all the rest of the BS you have attempted to accuse all other traders of, you have now demonstrated (with your OWN words) that your nothing but a discretionary trader yourself and subject to all the pit falls pointed out that impact on discretionary traders.
The VERY FACT that you have to deviate from the system/formula is irrefutable proof that its error rate will certainly see it fail in time. If your identifying inconsistencies/errors/shortfalls at this early stage, then you really need to go back to the drawing board and fix the underlying issues.
Just like you long term spreadsheet dream of "future potential profits" show a compounded return if all things work exactly 100% correct, the same applies to errors and the resulting compounded losses. In your case, the error is built into the very start of the formula/system but somehow you don't believe this will be a issue long term..... And somehow your convinced that your formula is correct (yet it needs discretionary adjustment).
Hey, what would we know. After all, your DIFFERENT then the previous 23748 people that have made the same claim as you have. After all, you've got all those inspirational quotes that keeps your head in the clouds and your eyes on your envisaged prize, not on that waste of time thing, REALITY.
.......... GUARANTEED "holy grail"..............
What you really need to do is get bank rolled with a lot of money so you can really prove your system/formula in live market conditions. So print out your spreadsheets showing your future profit that you have been posting on this thread, take them to the local bank and I'm sure once they see the returns you have generated on paper, they will be tripping over themselves to invest MILLIONS with you.
If you have been in "many" businesses and found out this, it should be a MASSIVE wake up call that you never had anything to begin with, NO business, NO business niche, NO competitive business model, NO business plan or anything else that ensures a business is robust enough to withstand healthy competition.
If you EVER expect longevity in any business venture, you MUST have a solid foundation. ANYONE can setup a business concern to exploit a window of opportunity but it will invariably fail at the first sign of competition.
Don't mistake that type of venture with a real business of substance that not only takes on competition and thrives but actually seeks it out by moving into fields that have established players.
If your "businesses" that you have been previously involved with have continually failed whenever exposed to competition, you really need to start looking at the business model you keep trying to use because its broken and flawed and will only ever result in the same failed outcome in the long run.
ANY business of worth does not run from competition. It is a sure sign that the business had no worth to begin with and never should have been attempted.
And for anyone that's awake reading this thread, your above statement should be all the proof they require as to what you are REALLY doing.
Either you HAVE a formula that WORKS (Rule based trading) and you don't need to manually massage the entries on the fly.
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We made an initial formula and it works fine (see back test on DJIA and Dax) , when we started using it , we had initial optimist to deviate (optimist is an emotion) .We had some open positions from previous versions , these are now cleared and we are trading the formula , without discretion or deviation.
The formula is correct , there are no inconsistencies . You can see from the back tests on excel , they are good , but these are also very conservative.This is why we are implementing it
I agree with your post and points raised .We are already on live accounts , once the formula is fully implemented , on a small scale , we increase stakes.
You talk about thinking outside the box, and you use backtesting for results. I am sorry to say that you are a dreamer, and if you contact @Handle123 both of you will get on very well together. He is similar to you, trying to convince people that he is someone that he can never be.
I am a doer and I am doing it.
If you are thinking outside the box , it does not mean you can not back test your thought out strategy.It means you thought out the strategy , from a different eye , but developed it in the box.
I never said develop the strategy out the box , just think imaginatively.
I am doing some back tests on eur usd and fx , so I won't be posting cause I would rather dream by myself.
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My business was not a niche business , it was also in a contracting/declining market .Spending has shifted to technology like mobiles etc and been shifting for last 30 years.
Buy /selling options and buying selling futures in specific combination , can give you a nice risk reward , premium decay and a maths formula to work around.
You don't need to know direction to make money.
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The mere mention of backtesting shows what you really know about trading, which is absolutely nothing. Look at the picture I posted again, and see why ALL strategies are useless over time. If you want to come up with a viable strategy for making money consistently, as in each and every day, then you must concentrate on short term trading. Bring up the Time & Sales for the ES and see how many algo traders are operating, jumping in and out of the market like a jack in the box. To make money trading it is best to follow the big players, but unless you can decipher what they are doing you are wasting your time, and definitely wasting your money as they will take it from you in the blink of an eye. Any automated strategies outside the algo traders is old news, and old news is no good for making money trading. You are wasting your time with the silly little excel charts. Grow up and get real.