The consequences of acting Iran...or not attacking.

[Dr. Zhivodka]

The douche bag Krauthammer has no shame. Nor does he have the ethic of the trader. Nor does he have any world experience from which to construct his fantasies.

He can be wrong continuously and still draw a paycheck. I'm still waiting for his mea culpa on Iran. Will I get it? Of course not.

His continued bad judgement and ridiculous statements are laughable. The tenor of which tend to make others quote his dumb-assed non-sense.

That is a sad state indeed.

Quote from hapaboy:

Making a decision on Iran

By Charles Krauthammer

Friday, September 15, 2006

WASHINGTON -- In his televised 9/11 address, President Bush said that we must not ``leave our children to face a Middle East overrun by terrorist states and radical dictators armed with nuclear weapons.'' There's only one such current candidate: Iran.

The next day, he responded thus (as reported by Rich Lowry and Kate O'Beirne of National Review) to a question on Iran: ``It's very important for the American people to see the president try to solve problems diplomatically before resorting to military force.''

``Before'' implies that the one follows the other. The signal is unmistakable. An aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities lies just beyond the horizon of diplomacy. With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option.

The costs will be terrible:

Economic. An attack on Iran will likely send oil prices overnight to $100 or even to $150. That will cause a worldwide recession perhaps as deep as the one triggered by the Iranian revolution of 1979.

Iran might suspend its own 2.5 million barrels a day of oil exports, and might even be joined by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, asserting primacy as the world's leading anti-imperialist. But even more effectively, Iran will shock the oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz through which 40 percent of the world's exports flow every day.

Iran could do this by attacking ships in the Strait, scuttling its own ships, laying mines or just threatening to launch Silkworm anti-ship missiles at any passing tanker.

The U.S. Navy will be forced to break the blockade. We will succeed but at considerable cost. And it will take time -- during which time the world economy will be in a deep spiral.

Military. Iran will activate its proxies in Iraq, most notably, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Sadr is already wreaking havoc with sectarian attacks on Sunni civilians. Iran could order the Mahdi Army and its other agents within the police and armed forces to take up arms against the institutions of the central government itself, threatening the very anchor of the new Iraq. Many Mahdi will die, but they live to die. Many Iraqis and coalition soldiers are likely to die as well.

Among the lesser military dangers, Iran might activate terrorist cells around the world, although without nuclear capability that threat is hardly strategic. It will also be very difficult to unleash its proxy Hezbollah, now chastened by the destruction it brought upon Lebanon in the latest round with Israel and deterred by the presence of Europeans in the south Lebanon buffer zone.

Diplomatic. There will be massive criticism of America from around the world. Much of it is to be discounted. The Muslim street will come out again for a few days, having replenished its supply of flammable American flags most recently exhausted during the cartoon riots. Their governments will express solidarity with a fellow Muslim state, but this will be entirely hypocritical. The Arabs are terrified about the rise of a nuclear Iran and would privately rejoice in its defanging.

The Europeans will be less hypocritical because their visceral anti-Americanism trumps rational calculation. We will have done them an enormous favor by sparing them the threat of Iranian nukes, but they will vilify us nonetheless.

In the region, Persian Iran will immediately become the hegemonic power in the Arab Middle East. Today it is deterred from overt aggression against its neighbors by the threat of conventional retaliation. Against a nuclear Iran, such deterrence becomes far less credible. As its weak, non-nuclear Persian Gulf neighbors accommodate to it, jihadist Iran will gain control of the most strategic region on the globe.

Then there is the larger danger of permitting nuclear weapons to be acquired by religious fanatics seized with an eschatological belief in the imminent apocalypse and in their own divine duty to hasten the End of Days. The mullahs are infinitely more likely to use these weapons than anyone in the history of the nuclear age. Every city in the civilized world will live under the specter of instant annihilation delivered either by missile or by terrorist. This from a country that has an official Death to America Day and has declared since Ayatollah Khomeini's ascension that Israel must be wiped off the map.

Against millenarian fanaticism glorying in a cult of death, deterrence is a mere wish. Is the West prepared to wager its cities with their millions of inhabitants on that feeble gamble?

These are the questions. These are the calculations. The decision is no more than a year away.

http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/CharlesKrauthammer/2006/09/15/making_a_decision_on_iran

 

[moo]

Ah, what fearmongering. Don't these "experts" ever learn? Militarily, America is far superior to any other country today, and can easily subdue such a poor, third-rate power as Iran. Didn't case Iraq teach anything?

Quote from hapaboy:

The costs will be terrible:

Economic. An attack on Iran will likely send oil prices overnight to $100 or even to $150. That will cause a worldwide recession perhaps as deep as the one triggered by the Iranian revolution of 1979.

No it won't. All this was priced in when oil was near $80. No crisis will cause a spike above that.

Iran might suspend its own 2.5 million barrels a day of oil exports, and might even be joined by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, asserting primacy as the world's leading anti-imperialist. But even more effectively, Iran will shock the oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz through which 40 percent of the world's exports flow every day.

Stop selling oil would be an economic suicide for Iran. Trying to stop oil trade would be a military one. It won't take long for the US Navy to bomb anything threatening out of existence.

Military. Iran will activate its proxies in Iraq, most notably, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Sadr is already wreaking havoc with sectarian attacks on Sunni civilians. Iran could order the Mahdi Army and its other agents within the police and armed forces to take up arms against the institutions of the central government itself, threatening the very anchor of the new Iraq.

These so-called proxies don't want to rock the boat. They already have the power in Iraq, why try to lose it?

Among the lesser military dangers, Iran might activate terrorist cells around the world

Only relatively little trouble to be expected from these misguided creatures.

Diplomatic. There will be massive criticism of America from around the world.

No reason to care about. Whining will not lead to anything.

 

[hapaboy]

Quote from moo:

Ah, what fearmongering.

"Fearmongering"? Hey, don't take it from Krauthammer, or Bush, or Blair, or any other so-called right-wing chickenhawk.

Take it from the poster boy of Islamofascism himself:

"We love death. The US loves life. That is the big difference between us." - OBL, 11/01

 

[tradermaji]

Quote from Pabst:

How are things in New Orleans? I see the murder rate is back up to those lofty pre-Katrina levels. Always a GOOD sign of prosperity!!! I'm glad your folks are back in the 'hood thuggin' and murderin'.........


BTW: Did you know that being a black male between 15-30 in Nawlins is a more dangerous gig than serving in Iraq......

Of course, the murder rate is high and the turf wars are on their way. The National Guard is on the streets but still not able to control it... well the guardsmen who have not been sent to or killed in Iraq... that is.

When you say "my folks" do you mean the New Orleans population in general or the black population? FYI, I am not black, so I have to assume you meant general population.

Yes, we all want to worry about our cities and our neighborhoods. That is why we don't want our freakin' chickenshit admin sending our boys to Iraq. And, we also think that chimp boy was asleep at the wheel during Katrina just like he was during 911. Shame on those who voted for him.

By the way, do you know having a racist attitude is a mental disorder and perhaps can be cured by counseling?

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from hapaboy:



Take it from the poster boy of Islamofascism himself:

"We love death. The US loves life. That is the big difference between us." - OBL, 11/01

====================

Osoma Ben Laden ''we love death;
The US loves life.''

Enter the kings like Sir John Templeton;
who always try to accomodate somone

 

[TorontoTrader2]

Israel, Pakistan, India are all in the area and all have nukes. All follow extreme religions.

Across the pond. USA and Korea have nukes. Both are led by extreme military governments.


ps. Still wating for iraq's "grave, unmistakable threat". LMAO.

 

[TorontoTrader2]

Quote from hapaboy:

"Fearmongering"? Hey, don't take it from Krauthammer, or Bush, or Blair, or any other so-called right-wing chickenhawk.

Take it from the poster boy of Islamofascism himself:

"We love death. The US loves life. That is the big difference between us." - OBL, 11/01

So the almost 3000 US service people, and 50,000+ iraqis killed indicates a love of life?

 

[hapaboy]

Quote from TorontoTrader2:

Israel, Pakistan, India are all in the area and all have nukes. All follow extreme religions.

Across the pond. USA and Korea have nukes. Both are led by extreme military governments.


ps. Still wating for iraq's "grave, unmistakable threat". LMAO.

Ridiculous. It is not the intention of the governments of Israel, Pakistan, India, or the US to conquer the world and convert the world to their dominant religions.

N. Korea's "religion" is that of worshipping Kim.

Your post indicates your feeble understanding of the world.

Quote from TorontoTrader2:

So the almost 3000 US service people, and 50,000+ iraqis killed indicates a love of life?

Yes, for the purpose of preventing much greater loss of life.

But of course a moonbat like you doesn't understand that, couched as you are in the ignorance of moral relativism in this context.

 

[hapaboy]

Quote from murray t turtle:

Osoma Ben Laden ''we love death;
The US loves life.''

 

[LivermoresGhost]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

The douche bag Krauthammer has no shame. Nor does he have the ethic of the trader. Nor does he have any world experience from which to construct his fantasies.

He can be wrong continuously and still draw a paycheck. I'm still waiting for his mea culpa on Iran. Will I get it? Of course not.

His continued bad judgement and ridiculous statements are laughable. The tenor of which tend to make others quote his dumb-assed non-sense.

That is a sad state indeed.

All the old goats in wheelchairs with last names starting with "K" should be dumped overboard.