The Coming Oil Crisis
- Thread starter capmac
- Start date
>>>In two or three months when the "powers that be" get the price where they want it, you'll be able to buy all the gasoline you want. Just like in the 70s. History does repeat itself.<<<
Let me guess. You are short on crude oil. You might as well give us your money. It will save you the trouble later on!!! We can wait----you can't. Any trouble in the Middle East and you will be singing the blues!!!
Let me guess. You are short on crude oil. You might as well give us your money. It will save you the trouble later on!!! We can wait----you can't. Any trouble in the Middle East and you will be singing the blues!!!
To get back to the original post in this thread, the author states that "this time it is different".
In my view he is correct in his premise that history is repeating itself....an unwinnable war,etc...., but the underlying problem is still political. The price shock in oil back in the the 70's came from the United States' manipulation of its currency. When Nixon completed the dismantling of the Bretton Woods treaty and devalued the currency, which ended foreign governments ability to demand gold in return for dollars (a lucrative exchange due to the deflated value of dollars vs. gold as the result of government policies), this effectively discounted the price of oil. Since oil is traded in dollars, any devaluation of the dollar has to increase the value of oil in dollar terms. The arabs, not being entirely stupid said "screw you Mr. Nixon, we will shut off the supply of oil until the price of oil increases enough for us to recoup our losses".
Fast forward to the present. Since we now have a completely fiat currency, our money is money because the government says it is, and up to the present everyone agrees to agree on this point. The option of de-linking from a gold standard and devaluation is no longer available as a means of currency manipulation. What is available and being done is devaluation through debt accumulation and inflation of the money supply, which has been occurring since the Civil War and accelerating in recent years. The difference now is there are no more easy "fixes" left for politicians to use. We are stuck with our debts. As long as we continue to sell debts in the form of treasury bonds and notes to finance our deficits there can only be one trend in the price of oil, or any other commodity. The current pop in the price of oil is simply many more buyers than sellers pressuring the market. Current supplies don't warrant these levels, but the current market psychology does. If and when concerns about Iranian nukes, possible supply disruptions, etc. subside the price will recede. When it does the current "crisis" will be over, but the overall trend in prices will continue. And the underlying problem will still be the same--Washington D.C.
In my view he is correct in his premise that history is repeating itself....an unwinnable war,etc...., but the underlying problem is still political. The price shock in oil back in the the 70's came from the United States' manipulation of its currency. When Nixon completed the dismantling of the Bretton Woods treaty and devalued the currency, which ended foreign governments ability to demand gold in return for dollars (a lucrative exchange due to the deflated value of dollars vs. gold as the result of government policies), this effectively discounted the price of oil. Since oil is traded in dollars, any devaluation of the dollar has to increase the value of oil in dollar terms. The arabs, not being entirely stupid said "screw you Mr. Nixon, we will shut off the supply of oil until the price of oil increases enough for us to recoup our losses".
Fast forward to the present. Since we now have a completely fiat currency, our money is money because the government says it is, and up to the present everyone agrees to agree on this point. The option of de-linking from a gold standard and devaluation is no longer available as a means of currency manipulation. What is available and being done is devaluation through debt accumulation and inflation of the money supply, which has been occurring since the Civil War and accelerating in recent years. The difference now is there are no more easy "fixes" left for politicians to use. We are stuck with our debts. As long as we continue to sell debts in the form of treasury bonds and notes to finance our deficits there can only be one trend in the price of oil, or any other commodity. The current pop in the price of oil is simply many more buyers than sellers pressuring the market. Current supplies don't warrant these levels, but the current market psychology does. If and when concerns about Iranian nukes, possible supply disruptions, etc. subside the price will recede. When it does the current "crisis" will be over, but the overall trend in prices will continue. And the underlying problem will still be the same--Washington D.C.