The coming international trade war
- Thread starter SouthAmerica
- Start date
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Thermactor: But Senhor Amaral, you always talk about how the rest of the world is so bad, and how Brasil is so good. You sound exactly like a propaganda copy writer.
*****
April 7, 2010
SouthAmerica: You will be surprised how wrong you are regarding your perception about me when you read my next article that is almost ready for publication.
On this article I give the only solution available for Brazil to move up to the next level on its social and economic development.
Hopefully I will be able to finish the new article this afternoon or by tomorrow and I will submit it for publication on Brazzil magazine ASAP.
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Thermactor: But Senhor Amaral, you always talk about how the rest of the world is so bad, and how Brasil is so good. You sound exactly like a propaganda copy writer.
*****
April 7, 2010
SouthAmerica: You will be surprised how wrong you are regarding your perception about me when you read my next article that is almost ready for publication.
On this article I give the only solution available for Brazil to move up to the next level on its social and economic development.
Hopefully I will be able to finish the new article this afternoon or by tomorrow and I will submit it for publication on Brazzil magazine ASAP.
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Let's see it Ricardo!
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April 8, 2010
SouthAmerica: The US government has sent the entire gang of US Treasury Secretaries on a begging trip to China.
They went to China to pay homage to their new masters.
The Business Week article said: âGeithner left India for a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Beijing today, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams told reporters in Mumbai. The meeting will be closed to the press.â
No wonder the meeting will be closed to the press â the Chinese Vice Premier probably doesnât want to humiliate Tim Geithner in public.
I just can imagine up which part of Tim Geithnerâs body the Chinese Vice Premier will ask Tim Geithner to stick his threat about labeling China a currency manipulator â probably a part of his body that usually doesnât see any sunshine.
This trip to China by these clowns will give a lot of material for Jon Stewart to use on his show â it is beyond Pathetic what these guys are doing.
I understand that Barak Obamaâs trip to China did not go as well as his other trips to Europe and to Africa. It seems the Chinese can't understand why the United States had elected a black president? They still are trying to figure out what happened here in the USA.
When I was reading this Business Week article a few things really caught my attention such as:
1) The article said: âJohn Snow, is in Shanghai today attending the Halter Financial Summit, along with former U.S. President George W. Bushâ
Since Barack Obamaâs trip to China a few months ago was a real bust, then let us try this time around a former U.S. President George W. Bush â maybe the Chinese will not notice the difference. And if he showed up with John Snow then the Chinese might get even more confused.
2) The article also said: âGeithnerâs visit coincides with the appearance of several former American officials in China this week. Henry Paulson, his predecessor as Treasury chief, met with Premier Wen yesterday in Beijing, during which they discussed U.S.-China relations and issues of âcommon concern,â the official Xinhua News Agency said.â
There is something really wrong here when the former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson met with Premier Wen yesterday, and today the current US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is going to get a private scolding from the Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan.
With all these guys landing in China at the same time to do a group begging on behalf of the United States â that probably has confused a hell of the Chinese and maybe some Chinese officials still are thinking that Henry Paulson is the current US Treasury Secretary, and that Tim Geithner it is just one of his assistants or one of his sidekicks.
*******
April 8, 2010
Business Week
Geithner Travels to China Bearing âOlive Branchâ
By Rebecca Christie
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner embarked on a previously unscheduled trip to China as the worldâs third-largest economy weighs letting its currency appreciate.
Geithner left India for a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Beijing today, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams told reporters in Mumbai. The meeting will be closed to the press. Geithner will stop in Hong Kong en route for talks with local leaders, according to a Treasury statement.
⦠Paulson, Snow
Geithnerâs visit coincides with the appearance of several former American officials in China this week. Henry Paulson, his predecessor as Treasury chief, met with Premier Wen yesterday in Beijing, during which they discussed U.S.-China relations and issues of âcommon concern,â the official Xinhua News Agency said.
Paulson is scheduled to attend the Boao Forum for Asia that runs from April 8-11. Paulsonâs predecessor as Treasury chief, John Snow, is in Shanghai today attending the Halter Financial Summit, along with former U.S. President George W. Bushâ¦
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-to-china-bearing-olive-branch-update2-.html
*******
Apr 8, 2010
Asia Times
âChina changes its economic paradigmâ
By Gordon G Chang
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/LD08Cb02.html
â¦Renationalization gained momentum after the announcement of the State Council's US$586 billion stimulus plan in November 2008. In 2009, the first full year of the plan, Beijing poured, either directly or indirectly through state banks, about $1.1 trillion into the economy according to the author's calculations.
Inevitably, Beijing's fiscal stimulus program resulted in a bigger state economy and a smaller private one; about 95% of recent growth has been attributable to investment, almost all of it from state sources (Xinhua News Agency). Moreover, state investment went into the state sector, of course. The state's stimulus plan favored large state enterprises over small and medium-sized private firms, and state financial institutions diverted credit to state-sponsored infrastructure. As they say, "the Party is now the economy". Stimulus, which appears to be reduced this year, is continuing to build up the already-dominant state sector (South China Morning Post).
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April 8, 2010
SouthAmerica: The US government has sent the entire gang of US Treasury Secretaries on a begging trip to China.
They went to China to pay homage to their new masters.
The Business Week article said: âGeithner left India for a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Beijing today, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams told reporters in Mumbai. The meeting will be closed to the press.â
No wonder the meeting will be closed to the press â the Chinese Vice Premier probably doesnât want to humiliate Tim Geithner in public.
I just can imagine up which part of Tim Geithnerâs body the Chinese Vice Premier will ask Tim Geithner to stick his threat about labeling China a currency manipulator â probably a part of his body that usually doesnât see any sunshine.
This trip to China by these clowns will give a lot of material for Jon Stewart to use on his show â it is beyond Pathetic what these guys are doing.
I understand that Barak Obamaâs trip to China did not go as well as his other trips to Europe and to Africa. It seems the Chinese can't understand why the United States had elected a black president? They still are trying to figure out what happened here in the USA.
When I was reading this Business Week article a few things really caught my attention such as:
1) The article said: âJohn Snow, is in Shanghai today attending the Halter Financial Summit, along with former U.S. President George W. Bushâ
Since Barack Obamaâs trip to China a few months ago was a real bust, then let us try this time around a former U.S. President George W. Bush â maybe the Chinese will not notice the difference. And if he showed up with John Snow then the Chinese might get even more confused.
2) The article also said: âGeithnerâs visit coincides with the appearance of several former American officials in China this week. Henry Paulson, his predecessor as Treasury chief, met with Premier Wen yesterday in Beijing, during which they discussed U.S.-China relations and issues of âcommon concern,â the official Xinhua News Agency said.â
There is something really wrong here when the former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson met with Premier Wen yesterday, and today the current US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is going to get a private scolding from the Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan.
With all these guys landing in China at the same time to do a group begging on behalf of the United States â that probably has confused a hell of the Chinese and maybe some Chinese officials still are thinking that Henry Paulson is the current US Treasury Secretary, and that Tim Geithner it is just one of his assistants or one of his sidekicks.
*******
April 8, 2010
Business Week
Geithner Travels to China Bearing âOlive Branchâ
By Rebecca Christie
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner embarked on a previously unscheduled trip to China as the worldâs third-largest economy weighs letting its currency appreciate.
Geithner left India for a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Beijing today, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams told reporters in Mumbai. The meeting will be closed to the press. Geithner will stop in Hong Kong en route for talks with local leaders, according to a Treasury statement.
⦠Paulson, Snow
Geithnerâs visit coincides with the appearance of several former American officials in China this week. Henry Paulson, his predecessor as Treasury chief, met with Premier Wen yesterday in Beijing, during which they discussed U.S.-China relations and issues of âcommon concern,â the official Xinhua News Agency said.
Paulson is scheduled to attend the Boao Forum for Asia that runs from April 8-11. Paulsonâs predecessor as Treasury chief, John Snow, is in Shanghai today attending the Halter Financial Summit, along with former U.S. President George W. Bushâ¦
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-to-china-bearing-olive-branch-update2-.html
*******
Apr 8, 2010
Asia Times
âChina changes its economic paradigmâ
By Gordon G Chang
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/LD08Cb02.html
â¦Renationalization gained momentum after the announcement of the State Council's US$586 billion stimulus plan in November 2008. In 2009, the first full year of the plan, Beijing poured, either directly or indirectly through state banks, about $1.1 trillion into the economy according to the author's calculations.
Inevitably, Beijing's fiscal stimulus program resulted in a bigger state economy and a smaller private one; about 95% of recent growth has been attributable to investment, almost all of it from state sources (Xinhua News Agency). Moreover, state investment went into the state sector, of course. The state's stimulus plan favored large state enterprises over small and medium-sized private firms, and state financial institutions diverted credit to state-sponsored infrastructure. As they say, "the Party is now the economy". Stimulus, which appears to be reduced this year, is continuing to build up the already-dominant state sector (South China Morning Post).
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April 9, 2010
SouthAmerica: It seems to me that the alarming bells are ringing all over the place.
If we could use football terms to describe the current international trade war â then we already have reached the end of the 1st quarter.
And the game is going to get nastier with every new quarter.
This economic game can also go into overtime â in this case a new Great Depressionâ¦.
*****
âChina is beginning to frustrate foreign businessâ
By Joerg Wuttke
Published: April 8, 2010
Financial Times (UK)
In the 10 years since the establishment of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, I have seldom seen market sentiment among members so bleak or pessimistic. After 30 years of progressive market reforms, many foreign businesses in the country feel as though they have run up against an unexpected and impregnable blockade.
For more than 30 years, foreign companies have been welcomed into China. They have brought massive levels of investment and technical and management skills, building supply chains that benefit not only their own businesses but those of competitors, while also providing consumers with more choice. Their contributions continue to be an important driver of Chinaâs economic success.
Suddenly political developments and regulatory restrictions have converged to create a dangerous cocktail that, for many companies, smacks of protectionism. While in some sectors â financial services and retail, for example â the doors to the Chinese market open ever wider, in many industries frustration among foreign businesses is far higher than Beijing realises.
For the first time I hear of companies contemplating leaving the country altogether. They consider this not because they cannot compete with local rivals â but because they are weary of slogging through an unpredictable business environment where the odds seem deliberately stacked against them.
I also hear of big companies preparing strategies to route part of their future investment away from China and into other Asian countries, where a more transparent and predictable market environment means safer and healthier investment opportunities.
With feelings so high, policymakers in Brussels and Washington are also rattling their sabres. There is a risk for China that governments of struggling western economies will increasingly take potshots at Beijingâs economic policies.
Foreign business is potentially an important ally for China, and the country risks alienating it just when it most needs friends abroad. Sentiment is turning sour at the very moment when foreign companies could be standing beside China in the fight against protectionism. Foreign businesses have a vested interest in keeping markets open and trade flowing. They should be beating down the doors in Brussels and Capitol Hill to advocate for free trade. Instead, they are asking why Chinese groups can freely access foreign markets when foreign companies are given less than equal treatment in China. They are asking why Geely can buy Volvo, while foreign motor manufacturers still have to form joint ventures to manufacture their cars in China.
The first step out of this situation is for Beijing to offer reassurance â through concrete, measurable actions â that it will adhere to the spirit of its World Trade Organisation commitments and provide a level playing field for all businesses in China. Take, for example, the âindigenous innovationâ regulations proposed last year, which will require government procurement to favour products that are based on domestically developed intellectual property. Though we have been encouraged by official responses to our queries on this issue, we now need proof â through implementation â that these measures are not, as they are now perceived, a crude attempt to force foreign rivals out of certain markets.
The second step is sustained and meaningful dialogue. Premier Wen Jiabao recently identified a lack of communication as a key problem in relations between Chinaâs leadership and international business, and pledged to meet more often with foreign companies. This is sorely needed.
Whether it recognises it or not, China has an image problem both among foreign businesses in the country and with political leaders in Europe and the US. It can change this perception, but not by persisting with ill-conceived and obstructionist policies â or by alienating natural allies.
The European Chamber recently offered more than 500 recommendations for improving the business climate in China. In November we offered proposals to tackle the widespread problem of industrial overcapacity. European business is a partner in Chinaâs economic success â and its economic future. We are ready to discuss how we can best achieve our common goals. But this will only happen if we know that we are welcome at the table.
The writer is president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China
.
April 9, 2010
SouthAmerica: It seems to me that the alarming bells are ringing all over the place.
If we could use football terms to describe the current international trade war â then we already have reached the end of the 1st quarter.
And the game is going to get nastier with every new quarter.
This economic game can also go into overtime â in this case a new Great Depressionâ¦.
*****
âChina is beginning to frustrate foreign businessâ
By Joerg Wuttke
Published: April 8, 2010
Financial Times (UK)
In the 10 years since the establishment of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, I have seldom seen market sentiment among members so bleak or pessimistic. After 30 years of progressive market reforms, many foreign businesses in the country feel as though they have run up against an unexpected and impregnable blockade.
For more than 30 years, foreign companies have been welcomed into China. They have brought massive levels of investment and technical and management skills, building supply chains that benefit not only their own businesses but those of competitors, while also providing consumers with more choice. Their contributions continue to be an important driver of Chinaâs economic success.
Suddenly political developments and regulatory restrictions have converged to create a dangerous cocktail that, for many companies, smacks of protectionism. While in some sectors â financial services and retail, for example â the doors to the Chinese market open ever wider, in many industries frustration among foreign businesses is far higher than Beijing realises.
For the first time I hear of companies contemplating leaving the country altogether. They consider this not because they cannot compete with local rivals â but because they are weary of slogging through an unpredictable business environment where the odds seem deliberately stacked against them.
I also hear of big companies preparing strategies to route part of their future investment away from China and into other Asian countries, where a more transparent and predictable market environment means safer and healthier investment opportunities.
With feelings so high, policymakers in Brussels and Washington are also rattling their sabres. There is a risk for China that governments of struggling western economies will increasingly take potshots at Beijingâs economic policies.
Foreign business is potentially an important ally for China, and the country risks alienating it just when it most needs friends abroad. Sentiment is turning sour at the very moment when foreign companies could be standing beside China in the fight against protectionism. Foreign businesses have a vested interest in keeping markets open and trade flowing. They should be beating down the doors in Brussels and Capitol Hill to advocate for free trade. Instead, they are asking why Chinese groups can freely access foreign markets when foreign companies are given less than equal treatment in China. They are asking why Geely can buy Volvo, while foreign motor manufacturers still have to form joint ventures to manufacture their cars in China.
The first step out of this situation is for Beijing to offer reassurance â through concrete, measurable actions â that it will adhere to the spirit of its World Trade Organisation commitments and provide a level playing field for all businesses in China. Take, for example, the âindigenous innovationâ regulations proposed last year, which will require government procurement to favour products that are based on domestically developed intellectual property. Though we have been encouraged by official responses to our queries on this issue, we now need proof â through implementation â that these measures are not, as they are now perceived, a crude attempt to force foreign rivals out of certain markets.
The second step is sustained and meaningful dialogue. Premier Wen Jiabao recently identified a lack of communication as a key problem in relations between Chinaâs leadership and international business, and pledged to meet more often with foreign companies. This is sorely needed.
Whether it recognises it or not, China has an image problem both among foreign businesses in the country and with political leaders in Europe and the US. It can change this perception, but not by persisting with ill-conceived and obstructionist policies â or by alienating natural allies.
The European Chamber recently offered more than 500 recommendations for improving the business climate in China. In November we offered proposals to tackle the widespread problem of industrial overcapacity. European business is a partner in Chinaâs economic success â and its economic future. We are ready to discuss how we can best achieve our common goals. But this will only happen if we know that we are welcome at the table.
The writer is president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China
.
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September 14, 2010
SouthAmerica: The outbreak of a US-China economic war is on the horizon.
The problem is that the US federal deficit has been substantially underwritten by China's ongoing purchase of US Treasury debt.
Today China is holding about US$ 1 trillion of that stuff, and that represents about 50 percent market share of the people that will be holding the bag to the US when the coming crisis gets out of control.
In another words: In one hand, China has the United States by the balls, but when the shit hits the fan they are also going to lose their shirt on this deal.
It is not going to be a pretty sight for anyone.
*****
âBeware starting trade war, China economist tells U.S.â
Reuters â Tuesday, September 14, 2010
(Beijing) - The United States would be the loser if it touched off a trade war by labeling China a currency manipulator or imposed import duties to offset perceived undervaluation of the yuan, a government researcher said on Tuesday.
Any punitive measures against Beijing risked backfiring because China is the fastest-growing market for American exports, Ding Yifan, an economist with the Development Research Center, told a seminar on Sino-American trade ties.
A total of 93 U.S. lawmakers have signed a letter urging Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on a bill to get tough with China over its exchange rate.
The bill would let the U.S. Commerce Department slap countervailing and anti-dumping duties on "injurious imports from any country that persistently undervalues its currency.
Ding said Beijing could also make the point to Washington that the dollar and the U.S. economy would suffer if China were to sell down its vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
Ding's think tank reports to the State Council, China's cabinet. His views reflect one strand of thinking in government circles, but not official policy. No Chinese leader has threatened to dump the country's dollar holdings, which make up some two-thirds of its $2.45 trillion in international reserves.
(Reporting by Langi Chiang and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68D12320100914
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September 14, 2010
SouthAmerica: The outbreak of a US-China economic war is on the horizon.
The problem is that the US federal deficit has been substantially underwritten by China's ongoing purchase of US Treasury debt.
Today China is holding about US$ 1 trillion of that stuff, and that represents about 50 percent market share of the people that will be holding the bag to the US when the coming crisis gets out of control.
In another words: In one hand, China has the United States by the balls, but when the shit hits the fan they are also going to lose their shirt on this deal.
It is not going to be a pretty sight for anyone.
*****
âBeware starting trade war, China economist tells U.S.â
Reuters â Tuesday, September 14, 2010
(Beijing) - The United States would be the loser if it touched off a trade war by labeling China a currency manipulator or imposed import duties to offset perceived undervaluation of the yuan, a government researcher said on Tuesday.
Any punitive measures against Beijing risked backfiring because China is the fastest-growing market for American exports, Ding Yifan, an economist with the Development Research Center, told a seminar on Sino-American trade ties.
A total of 93 U.S. lawmakers have signed a letter urging Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on a bill to get tough with China over its exchange rate.
The bill would let the U.S. Commerce Department slap countervailing and anti-dumping duties on "injurious imports from any country that persistently undervalues its currency.
Ding said Beijing could also make the point to Washington that the dollar and the U.S. economy would suffer if China were to sell down its vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
Ding's think tank reports to the State Council, China's cabinet. His views reflect one strand of thinking in government circles, but not official policy. No Chinese leader has threatened to dump the country's dollar holdings, which make up some two-thirds of its $2.45 trillion in international reserves.
(Reporting by Langi Chiang and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68D12320100914
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There may be impedence in the global trade mechanism but to sya that a trade war will ensue is unlikely. There are still many green field locations on the planet to grow equity. The trade deals are being made currently are to squeeze maxium profitabilty before moving on to other bussiness operations in virgin markets. There is still an entire continent that can be developed. (EZA)
Akuma
Akuma
A ruse to disguise the real problem.
The labor cost differential is such that the Chinese currency would have to increase by a factor of 15 TIMES or so to allow US labor to be competitive... ain't gonna see that in our lifetime.
China has the world by the gonads (especially the US)... our politicos are pissn-and-moanin about the currency (wimpy and false arguments)... our disadvantage is MUCH bigger than that.
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September 16, 2010
SouthAmerica: We can see the escalation of the coming international trade war growing one step at the time.
Here is another step towards the coming international trade war:
China is saturated with US dollars, and starts diversifying into Japanese Ye...n, in turn pushing the Yen up even further (hurting the domestic economy in Japan).
The Japanese government is forced into a massive currency intervention in an effort to try to stop the appreciation of the Yen even further.
This is a sign that the currency markets is reaching a major turning point, and things are going to get complicated in the near future for everybody.
In an election year for political reasons the US government might be forced to making official that China is a currency manipulator â with all the economic implications that come with that â then at that point the shit is going to hit the fan.
.
September 16, 2010
SouthAmerica: We can see the escalation of the coming international trade war growing one step at the time.
Here is another step towards the coming international trade war:
China is saturated with US dollars, and starts diversifying into Japanese Ye...n, in turn pushing the Yen up even further (hurting the domestic economy in Japan).
The Japanese government is forced into a massive currency intervention in an effort to try to stop the appreciation of the Yen even further.
This is a sign that the currency markets is reaching a major turning point, and things are going to get complicated in the near future for everybody.
In an election year for political reasons the US government might be forced to making official that China is a currency manipulator â with all the economic implications that come with that â then at that point the shit is going to hit the fan.
.