The Coming Bear Trap
- Thread starter calibertrader
- Start date
I was wondering where everyone went. Can't argue with the follow through day and rally confirmation. Only one problem, we lack leadership.
I got two long positions, working well, but don't trust this. FED statement seemed geared to making the market happy, not their job. Still believe that something big going to be dropped on the market's head.
For now, still no need to be short. But be prepared.
I got two long positions, working well, but don't trust this. FED statement seemed geared to making the market happy, not their job. Still believe that something big going to be dropped on the market's head.
For now, still no need to be short. But be prepared.
48 posts? Well, sorry, I'm a little too busy with the markets to post 16,000 times on here (or whatever it taes to make one a self-proclaimed expert).
I never call levels either, BTW. I don' t care if it's Dow 36,000 or Dow 10,000, there are ways to make money. But it has to do with tested, objective strategies, not permabear/permabull conjecture.
I never call levels either, BTW. I don' t care if it's Dow 36,000 or Dow 10,000, there are ways to make money. But it has to do with tested, objective strategies, not permabear/permabull conjecture.
Quote from S2007S:
someone with 48 posts shouldnt be making comments like that, however I will respond..
It wasnt dow 11,000 it was DOW 12,000. ITs still coming!!!!!!!!!
Calling levels is a fun way to pass time, but not base trading decisions on, you are correct.
As a daytrader, there should always be ways to make money. As a swing/long term trader, not true. No one can be consistent day in day out. Especially in volatile markets.
Anyone else notice how the polls swung from bullish to bearish before today's FOMC meeting?
Hey, I have two long term positions, too. Valero and Unilever. Valero's not really long term, though. I'll sell it off in June.
I do have some calls, though.
I don't buy this rally, just seems to quick for me. Lack of leadership is the problem. But that doesn't mean it can't develop.
Where do I stand? I haven't gotten short, it was too early for that, and didn't move completely to cash since I did believe a small rally would develop. Can't ignore today, we did get a follow through day, which confirms the rally.
For the rest of the week compile both a possible long and short list. My opinion was that the rally would carry to the 50 day moving average, which all the indexes broke above today. I was looking for 2 - 5% rally, we got 2% today. I think this momentum should carry a little longer. Then the market will most likely stage a sell off. The strength of that sell off, and the number of stocks that setup to break higher afterwards will be the key.
I wouldn't hold my breath, even though I was shown a chart that it is possible for the market to rally significantly from such a short correction. Even 2000 had a great bounce.
Point being, not the right time to do anything. Best to sit on the sidelines and prepare. If this is a real rally, you'll have the next few weeks to get long. No need to rush, this one, you can wait and see if it proves itself.
Where do I stand? I haven't gotten short, it was too early for that, and didn't move completely to cash since I did believe a small rally would develop. Can't ignore today, we did get a follow through day, which confirms the rally.
For the rest of the week compile both a possible long and short list. My opinion was that the rally would carry to the 50 day moving average, which all the indexes broke above today. I was looking for 2 - 5% rally, we got 2% today. I think this momentum should carry a little longer. Then the market will most likely stage a sell off. The strength of that sell off, and the number of stocks that setup to break higher afterwards will be the key.
I wouldn't hold my breath, even though I was shown a chart that it is possible for the market to rally significantly from such a short correction. Even 2000 had a great bounce.
Point being, not the right time to do anything. Best to sit on the sidelines and prepare. If this is a real rally, you'll have the next few weeks to get long. No need to rush, this one, you can wait and see if it proves itself.
You know, I hate oil, LOL. I just feel that at these levels or higher, the incentive to speed up production in alternative energy is so great, that ultimately, these prices will hurt the demand for oil. I believe that the Saudi's know it and have been resistant to calls for an oil output reduction.
I don't either.
Seriously.
I am going long anyways. I will place a bet to try and squeeze some money from the sheep herd, which I am now joining, hoping my positions get bid higher by 'greater fools.'
Seriously. Greed and fear are motivating me. Greed prompts me to take what I perceive as a somewhat dicey gamble here, along with fear of missing out on the returns that others may enjoy.
I agree. I personally think alternative energy is a dead end, and ethanol a joke, because there is such a glut of oil, they are running out of places to store it. No joke. Oil storage fees are rising faster than Valero's refining margins.
My Valero play is a play on the refining margins, and not tethered to oil. Fundamentals aside, I suspect the slime that oversee refining will manage to push profits as high as they can, doing anything it takes, being the greedy pigs that they are, just in time for 'summer driving season.'
I'm just playing along. I wouldn't know what a refinery was or what it did if one got stuck in my asshole (maybe I have a rough idea, though).