The Coming Bear Trap

[calibertrader]

Quote from formikatrading:

Shouldn't this thread have been titled "Bull Trap" since the original post discussed trapping the bulls in a market that will eventually decline some more?

Bear Trap-
A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not.

Bull Trap
A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.

You are correct, my fault.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from formikatrading:

No offense, ByLo, but I've seen some of your other posts. You definitely seem to have some "permabear" biases that you need to be aware of.

I am aware I'm bearish now, but honestly, I was exactly the opposite in June of last year. In fact, I was screaming to friends and relatives about how cheap stocks were.

Is 6 months enough time for the transformation from bull to permabear to become complete (I became bearish in late December/January)?

 

[makloda]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:
(I became bearish in late December/January)?

Think about all the money you missed out on the long side!!!!! Since Dec. the indexes literally exploded to the upside!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh wait we didn't go anywhere

 

[formikatrading]

Okay -- I understand. Still, it's one thing to think the market is going down and another thing to recite all of the "gloom and doom" stuff. I just thought I saw too much "gloom and doom" in some of your posts rather than basically, "hey, the market is going down, 'nuff said!" In any event, don't take offense to my comments. Best of luck with your trading!

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I am aware I'm bearish now, but honestly, I was exactly the opposite in June of last year. In fact, I was screaming to friends and relatives about how cheap stocks were.

Is 6 months enough time for the transformation from bull to permabear to become complete (I became bearish in late December/January)?

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from formikatrading:

Okay -- I understand. Still, it's one thing to think the market is going down and another thing to recite all of the "gloom and doom" stuff. I just thought I saw too much "gloom and doom" in some of your posts rather than basically, "hey, the market is going down, 'nuff said!" In any event, don't take offense to my comments. Best of luck with your trading!

99% of the things I post are doom and gloom lately.

But I'm just sourcing Bloomberg, the WSJ and other media sources.

No offense taken.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Overall this is looking to be a mini version of the 87' crash. A single big crash Feb 28th and then a slow ride back up.

There were tons of people speculating that therre would be a second big crash and it never happened.

I'm still waiting the for so co called 'mortgage/credit meltdown' and the 'subprime spillover' a lot of bears here have been predicting for the past 2 weeks. I'm also waiting for the so called 'dead cat' bounce to complete as well.

What about that guy with those stupid wave charts showing how the dow would drop another 700 points? Whre is he?

 

[MKTrader]

I think that's the problem. When there's a consensus in the financial press, it's usually a contrary indicator.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

99% of the things I post are doom and gloom lately.

But I'm just sourcing Bloomberg, the WSJ and other media sources.

No offense taken.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Agree. For example, there was so much doon and gloom in 2002. Every other article was about enron and the collapse of coperate america..blah

 

[blast19]

Quote from MKTrader:

I think that's the problem. When there's a consensus in the financial press, it's usually a contrary indicator.

Maybe when it relates to certain events...but every media source in the country reporting the woes of mortgage lenders and the possibility of a slowdown in housing aren't necessarily contrarian indicators.

I agree with what you're saying in part but also believe that sometimes everyone reporting on everything makes it more prescient than ever.

 

[S2007S]

How is the media hyping up the housing collapse, the media does hype up about 99% of the news out there, but this housing drop was written all over the place. When you see prices of houses going up 10-20% a year for 5 years straight you certainly have to think to yourself how any of this is still possible. The sell off in housing is not done. Prices still have plenty of room to fall.