The Coming Bear Trap
- Thread starter calibertrader
- Start date
Some of you need to look up the definition of "sub prime" in case the "sub" part of it does not tip you off. That's why the interest rate on them are so high, cause of the risk of default.
Buy the rumor, sell the news (opposite in this case). Foreclosures have been on the rise for a whole two years, right in line with the $HGX topping off.
Wake up, this is all ancient news. It's for the suckers, the ones who need CNBC to report it and can't do any research on their own.
It's like only a small handful of people forecasted the subprime market taking serious hits. Yeah, what a shocker. Real estate being overblown, what a shocker there also.
You perma bears are a funny bunch. Still cannot get the concept of asset inflation?
Short of a real engineered credit crunch and deflation, this market cannot drop too much. Cause where would the cash go?
Buy the rumor, sell the news (opposite in this case). Foreclosures have been on the rise for a whole two years, right in line with the $HGX topping off.
Wake up, this is all ancient news. It's for the suckers, the ones who need CNBC to report it and can't do any research on their own.
It's like only a small handful of people forecasted the subprime market taking serious hits. Yeah, what a shocker. Real estate being overblown, what a shocker there also.
You perma bears are a funny bunch. Still cannot get the concept of asset inflation?
Short of a real engineered credit crunch and deflation, this market cannot drop too much. Cause where would the cash go?
Great discussion so far, very constructive. Just to be on record I'm not a permabear, but here's another point to think about:
STAGFLATION - slow growth with high inflation - I think this is what's keeping the Fed up at nights at this point. Even though inflation maybe stabalizing or even trying to start trending down it's not in the Fed's supposed comfort zone. Add to that some of the potential shocks to the economy, and the Fed is like a dear in headslights right now.
I agree with whoever said that some of the prime borrowers maybe in trouble. But I only think this will happen if we head into a major slowdown/recession. Otherwise, as long as they have jobs, they can keep living paycheck to paycheck and pay off their mortgages. It's when they can't, I WORRY!!! There are alot of people in that sitution, and also holding investment property on top of their primary residence. Housing hasn't seen anything of a bottom long term yet.
STAGFLATION - slow growth with high inflation - I think this is what's keeping the Fed up at nights at this point. Even though inflation maybe stabalizing or even trying to start trending down it's not in the Fed's supposed comfort zone. Add to that some of the potential shocks to the economy, and the Fed is like a dear in headslights right now.
I agree with whoever said that some of the prime borrowers maybe in trouble. But I only think this will happen if we head into a major slowdown/recession. Otherwise, as long as they have jobs, they can keep living paycheck to paycheck and pay off their mortgages. It's when they can't, I WORRY!!! There are alot of people in that sitution, and also holding investment property on top of their primary residence. Housing hasn't seen anything of a bottom long term yet.
I like ole Rev Shark, but I wonder if he's making any money lately?
All I've seen in his column the last few months is standard stuff like "Don't trust this rally..." "Sharp break means more downside..." "Better stay in cash for now..." He's missed rally after rally...
All the standard party line from *experts*. Sure the market will drop. And maybe soon too. But if any those TSCM commentators and stock and trading touts had a clue, they'd be billionares, instead of vendors. That goes for the vast majority of financial media, of course.
All I've seen in his column the last few months is standard stuff like "Don't trust this rally..." "Sharp break means more downside..." "Better stay in cash for now..." He's missed rally after rally...
All the standard party line from *experts*. Sure the market will drop. And maybe soon too. But if any those TSCM commentators and stock and trading touts had a clue, they'd be billionares, instead of vendors. That goes for the vast majority of financial media, of course.
Shouldn't this thread have been titled "Bull Trap" since the original post discussed trapping the bulls in a market that will eventually decline some more?
I will wait until all these companies private equity bought at the top of the economic cycle see their revenues fall by 50%, they are respun onto the public market, at 20% of their respective buyout prices, and then I will become a bull.
Any news already discussed on CNBC or other major publications is already priced in. Agreed.
The question is, is the worst case scenario priced in, or is there something we're missing that isn't priced in, just yet.
I love the Bull, I just don't see it right now. Need more shakeout time so the next bull is that much more powerful.
No offense, ByLo, but I've seen some of your other posts. You definitely seem to have some "permabear" biases that you need to be aware of.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I will wait until all these companies private equity bought at the top of the economic cycle see their revenues fall by 50%, they are respun onto the public market, at 20% of their respective buyout prices, and then I will become a bull.