The CL/NQ experiment

[Gabe2004]

Tonkadad, slugar and NoDoji.
Thank you for your posts.
Just to clarify. It was a day dream.
A while back I made a spreadsheet to illustrate exactly the danger you wrote about.
It was in response to some other DAY DREAMER who had very lofty expectations.
http://screencast.com/t/97Tr7N2BHb
(what are the chances of getting every week 4x the average daily profit to make up for losses).
Most people take an average to be the rule without exception and they forget the losing days or the days that their expectations have not been met.
I am fully aware of them.
Also had I not had concentration issues after 1-1 1/2 hours in front of the screen I would have traded every valid setup that I see.
Not trading these valid setups because a daily profit target was hit, is the same as not letting a runner run just because it hit a certain number of ticks as profit.

Gabe, you need some tough love.

Just so that I am clear. I am not offended by any constructive criticism even if it might be unpleasant, so keep them coming.
An occasional pat on the back for something well done will not be refused either.

Gabe

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Gabe, you have commented on concentration issues a few times. Why don't you look into setting alerts or even programming your entry conditions so the s/w can watch it for you?

Regarding the $300 a day dream, etc, I agree with the others. It's dangerous. Trading is not a matter of making consistent money, not unless you are doing somethng like selling option premium. That is why it is so essential to maximize the big days.

 

[Gabe2004]

Gabe, you have commented on concentration issues a few times. Why don't you look into setting alerts or even programming your entry conditions so the s/w can watch it for you?

I have several bar formations that generate an audible and visual alert but I have removed those as the formations were not working.
Maybe I'll make an automatic trendline cut alert.....

Today's trades.
Not too proud of them.
Added to a loser and gotr out too late.

1st chart
1st trade - perfect.
2nd trade - so so. (exited marginally late)

2nd chart
3rd and 4th trade - exited too late (added trade 4 to a losing trade 3 but kept the original stop.
5th and 6th trade - perfect.
decided to double up b/c of trades 3 and 4 were double the normal.

I find that it is easier to see the correct entry and exit point on chart 3.
Sometimes moving away from the monitors or condensing the chart helps see things more clearly.

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

Was chopped to pieces b4 10AM.
Took 2 trades, left the computer and by the time I got back I was in the green again.
I must leave trades alone.
The losses b4 10AM were b/c I am still not good enough drawing the lines.
Actually I drew too many lines.
My horizontal lines are mostly well placed but I space the diagonal ones too close to each other.
I have ignored the 5min chart altogether today.
Tomorrow I will place lines on the 1min only after looking at the 5min chart first.

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

Small loss today.
I still don't get the hang of these diagonal lines.
It is possible that I still subconsciously use other things.

Gabe

 

[dbphoenix]

Small loss today.
I still don't get the hang of these diagonal lines.
It is possible that I still subconsciously use other things.

Gabe

What are all these lines for? It looks like a microwave transmission grid.

 

[dbphoenix]

If you're going to attempt to apply the demand and supply lines I've suggested, understand first what they're for. Without that, you will more likely make things far worse for yourself.

This chart is from one of the five you posted a few days ago.

Waiting for the first retracement is nothing more than a safety measure. If you want to enter at the break of the line, that's up to you. But you're not ready for that.

 

[Gabe2004]

What are all these lines for? It looks like a microwave transmission grid.

Those are the S/D lines in progression.
The attached charts (top left to bottom right) is sort of a slomo of the "transmission grid".
I hope they are correct.

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

If you're going to attempt to apply the demand and supply lines I've suggested, understand first what they're for. Without that, you will more likely make things far worse for yourself.

This chart is from one of the five you posted a few days ago.

Waiting for the first retracement is nothing more than a safety measure. If you want to enter at the break of the line, that's up to you. But you're not ready for that.

Thank you for the time you put in to convert and annotate my chart. (I have vision problems and a white background hurts my eyes, hence my dark charts)
I have annotated your chart. I am not sure if it is correct.
It is my opinion that all S/D lines from most traders will not be 100% the same (but roughly the same).
I read the instructions of how to draw them but during the day it seems that I am getting too many lines and they cause me to enter into trades that based on your lines, I should have never entered.

Gabe

 

[dbphoenix]

Thank you for the time you put in to convert and annotate my chart. (I have vision problems and a white background hurts my eyes, hence my dark charts)
I have annotated your chart. I am not sure if it is correct.
It is my opinion that all S/D lines from most traders will not be 100% the same (but roughly the same).
I read the instructions of how to draw them but during the day it seems that I am getting too many lines and they cause me to enter into trades that based on your lines, I should have never entered.

Gabe

The lines here and in the charts in the above post are not exactly incorrect but they could only have been drawn in hindsight, and drawing them in hindsight isn't going to do you any good.

I haven't followed this thread since the crowd left because there wasn't much point in doing so until you put a plan together. You still haven't done this, so there's really no place to go. This is just something you have to do. There's no way around it.

You appear to have no idea what you're looking at. Therefore you're petrified of it. There is not the slightest bit of ease in your trading, thus the extraordinary number of trades and the extremely tight stops. How can you hope to succeed when you're scared to death?

Before the NY open, open up your chart, look at it for a moment, and ask yourself who's in charge, buyers or sellers? If you don't know, then don't trade that day. Just watch price move, preferably a 1t chart, and see if you can figure it out. If you can obtain no sense whatsoever of the push -- direction and intensity -- from one side or the other, then it won't matter whether you use a 1m bar (or candle) or 5m or 10 or 30 or whatever. You will be continuously perplexed, and that is not the proper state for initiating and managing successful trades.