The China Covid Fiasco

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A Covid fiasco is unfolding in China after the country ended its "zero Covid" policy while being totally unprepared to deal with the aftermath as the very infectious BF.7 variant quickly spread -- while being outlined as the worst surge of the pandemic.

China's health systems were not prepared and quickly overwhelmed with seriously ill people. The death rate soared but the government is hiding the information while claiming under five people are dying per day -- while individual hospitals are reporting more than 20 deaths per day only at their site.. The situation will get worse as Covid spreads beyond the major population centers into rural areas with very poor health care systems. This is, however, a good time to buy shares in a Chinese funeral home company. There is also a run on fever and other medicines in China driving a global shortage; the drug shortage is particularly acute in China.

The Chinese vaccines, Sinopharm and Sinovac, have been found to be nearly ineffective. Even upon their original release their efficacy against the original Covid variant was only 50%. The Chinese vaccines were shipped to over 40 countries including Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Cambodia and Philippines -- all which quickly abandoned the Chinese vaccines after they were found to be completely worthless. In many ways, the Chinese vaccines are to blame for the Coviid surge in China.

The majority of China's population received the original vaccination with Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines. However most people did not get a booster. Effectively meaning that the huge majority of China's population is not up-to-date with vaccination -- even with the poorly effective Chinese vaccinations.

Unfortunately China decided -- quite a while ago -- not to use western mRNA vaccines which have been proven to be quite effective in preventing serious illness -- even with Omicron.

China --for a couple of days -- started to report the infection levels with some realism. "China estimates 250 million people caught COVID-19 since end of 'zero-COVID' policy: report. Officials reportedly estimated around 37 million people were infected on Tuesday alone". However shortly after this report, China decided not to release any Covid information whatsoever - "China stops publishing COVID-19 data amid rise in infections".

Still - China never properly reported Covid deaths. China has reported zero COVID-19 deaths for the last four days. A British based health data firm estimated that there are nearly 5,000 deaths a day in China from COVID-19. At least 1.5 million people are expected to die in China due to the BF.7 Covid variant -- a death toll that is avoidable. The crematoriums tell a different story than the official Chinese Covid death toll numbers. In face of this impending catastrophe the only reaction from the Chinese government is Xi stepping up a day ago urging steps to preserve lives.

In the face of rising protests against restrictions, China decided to end the "zero Covid" policy but was completely unprepared for the fallout in terms of healthcare system impact, deaths, and wide-scale economic disruption from large numbers of sick people. China decided to end "zero Covid" despite knowing that most people in the older population were not boosted (they are even paying older people now to get boosted) and that their home-grown vaccines were generally ineffective. Of course, wide-spread uncontrolled Covid in China raises the likelihood of a new dangerous variant breaking out -- keeping in mind with Omicron being infected with the previous variant provides no protection against the next variant. Neighboring countries are bracing for the fallout from the surge in China.

If anyone wants to see what the "Great Barrington Declaration" approach looks like in real life they can fly to China and see it in action. This is what occurs when you remove restrictions and allow a highly infectious disease widely spread across a poorly vaccinated population hoping that "natural immunity" kicks in.
 
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UsualName said:
What China is going through is exactly what the right wing prescribed.
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The Chinese got the stupid and non-scientific view and expectations from the lefty pro-vaccine types in the earlier days of the pandemic before reality set in- not from the right in regard to the zero covid goal.

There is no such thing as ZERO COVID. You can make the walk-back argument that the provaxers make now which is "okay, it does not prevent covid but helps with the mortality rate" which is where they were forced to end out based on reality. But the case for zero covid is dead and has been dead for a long time.

I was surprised, a couple weeks ago, to see a reasonable discussion even on lefty Bloomberg a couple weeks ago. (reasonable because so many people have had a dose of reality set in). They had some kind of lefty pundit on there trying to do the expected thing which was shaming the U.S. and the west for allegedly not providing vaccines for the Chinese. Sheesh.

Anyway one of the usually mild mannerd hosts piped up and said: "Look I have vaccinated twice and boosted on top of that and so has (naming another host) and we have both still had covid twice, so if the Chinese are trying to achieve ZERO covid that is just not reasonable."

Indeed.

One could easily use the Chinese scenario of an example of how stupid and damaging extended lockdowns and economic shutdowns are to society.

This topic has been beaten to death so the usual suspects should not expect me to enter into an extended repetitive discussion on this. Just making a point. Take it or leave it.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
The Chinese got the stupid and non-scientific view and expectations from the lefty pro-vaccine types in the earlier days of the pandemic before reality set in- not from the right in regard to the zero covid goal.

There is no such thing as ZERO COVID. You can make the walk-back argument that the provaxers make now which is "okay, it does not prevent covid but helps with the mortality rate" which is where they were forced to end out based on reality. But the case for zero covid is dead and has been dead for a long time.

I was surprised, a couple weeks ago, to see a reasonable discussion even on lefty Bloomberg a couple weeks ago. (reasonable because so many people have had a dose of reality set in). They had some kind of lefty pundit on there trying to do the expected thing which was shaming the U.S. and the west for allegedly not providing vaccines for the Chinese. Sheesh.

Anyway one of the usually mild mannerd hosts piped up and said: "Look I have vaccinated twice and boosted on top of that and so has (naming another host) and we have both still had covid twice, so if the Chinese are trying to achieve ZERO covid that is just not reasonable."

Indeed.

One could easily use the Chinese scenario of an example of how stupid and damaging extended lockdowns and economic shutdowns are to society.

This topic has been beaten to death so the usual suspects should not expect me to enter into an extended repetitive discussion on this. Just making a point. Take it or leave it.
More...

Well I agree that the Chinese policy of zero Covid was stupid. My point was they got deep into anti west propaganda that they ended up maligning the western vaccines and stuck with their ineffective homegrown vaccines, sinovax or whatever, and the people saw no benefit. So the vaccinated population in China is small and poorly protected from serious disease. Right now Covid is running through China with little to no mitigation and they are suffering tremendously. The human toll and economic fallout will be much greater than the Chinese will report.

We are very fortunate here in the west. I get people deride the vaccine and underestimate the virus but the vaccines are still working, and keeping Covid from doing serious damage to us.
 
Fiasco? No.

If folks must die because of weak immunities, it is their time. God's plan.

On the other hand, it proves that COVID-ZERO policy works. Large population weren't in contact of the virus until the government lifted the restrictions. And the government picked the time when mortality rate of Omnicron is 0.3%. Otherwise it could be tens of millions death.

Alternatively they could wait, the next variant mortality rate could be lower but who knows.

Also I read their medical system for every 10k patients, there are only 3.4 beds available. Not because its underfunding, it is because their population is so huge.
 
UsualName said:
Well I agree that the Chinese policy of zero Covid was stupid. My point was they got deep into anti west propaganda that they ended up maligning the western vaccines and stuck with their ineffective homegrown vaccines, sinovax or whatever, and the people saw no benefit. So the vaccinated population in China is small and poorly protected from serious disease. Right now Covid is running through China with little to no mitigation and they are suffering tremendously. The human toll and economic fallout will be much greater than the Chinese will report.

We are very fortunate here in the west. I get people deride the vaccine and underestimate the virus but the vaccines are still working, and keeping Covid from doing serious damage to us.
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Another loser in that "let's make our vaccine a weapon is Russia." Stupid Sputnik vaccine trying to compete with stupid Sinovac /Sinopharm as ways to extend their influence in south America and Africa and trying to game the World Health Organization to designate their vaccine the winner and then throw billions at it. Skunk piss, all of it.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
The Chinese got the stupid and non-scientific view and expectations from the lefty pro-vaccine types in the earlier days of the pandemic before reality set in- not from the right in regard to the zero covid goal.

There is no such thing as ZERO COVID. You can make the walk-back argument that the provaxers make now which is "okay, it does not prevent covid but helps with the mortality rate" which is where they were forced to end out based on reality. But the case for zero covid is dead and has been dead for a long time.

I was surprised, a couple weeks ago, to see a reasonable discussion even on lefty Bloomberg a couple weeks ago. (reasonable because so many people have had a dose of reality set in). They had some kind of lefty pundit on there trying to do the expected thing which was shaming the U.S. and the west for allegedly not providing vaccines for the Chinese. Sheesh.

Anyway one of the usually mild mannerd hosts piped up and said: "Look I have vaccinated twice and boosted on top of that and so has (naming another host) and we have both still had covid twice, so if the Chinese are trying to achieve ZERO covid that is just not reasonable."

Indeed.

One could easily use the Chinese scenario of an example of how stupid and damaging extended lockdowns and economic shutdowns are to society.

This topic has been beaten to death so the usual suspects should not expect me to enter into an extended repetitive discussion on this. Just making a point. Take it or leave it.
More...

This gets back to the intent of lockdowns & restrictions in a global pandemic. As outlined previously, the intent of lockdowns & restrictions are to:
  • Provide time to buffer up the medical system and stop facilities from being overwhelmed.
  • To allow the large majority of the population to be vaccinated with effective vaccines before opening up.
China went down the wrong path with "zero Covid" and opening up in regards to the following:
  • The country never buffered up its medical systems to deal with a large scale Covid outbreak -- increasing medicine supplies, ventilator numbers, hospital staffing, bed numbers, etc. China had three years to do this before ending "zero Covid" -- they should have been prepared.
  • China never had the majority of the population boosted including the vulnerable older people. Even boosting with the slightly effective Chinese vaccines may have been helpful.
  • China should have imported western mRNA boosters which are widely available and boosted their population with them once it was clearly demonstrated world-wide that they were much more effective than the Chinese vaccines.
China failed with all three of the above before abruptly ending zero Covid due to protests. Note I have criticized the zero Covid policy in China previously.

It should be noted that mRNA vaccines were very effective at stopping infection & transmission prior to the Omicron variant showing up. Prior Omicron, the vaccinated breakthrough rates of the mRNA vaccines across millions of people was a mere 0.56% in a population where Covid was highly prevalent as outlined in the KFF data from July 30, 2021. This is much better than the measles vaccine with a breakthrough rate of over 3% in a population where the disease is highly prevalent.

Since Omicron started in November of 2021, the original mRNA Covid vaccines have been effective in greatly reducing severe illness and death -- but not at stopping transmission and infection.

Fortunately the new bivalent mRNA boosters appear to be effective at stopping severe disease and reducing Omicron infection in the initial large scale studies.
 
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What boggles the mind is why China or Russia would be promoting vaccines? I understand the desire to earn from the vaccines. China in the greater scheme of things, you would think knew the truth about Ivermectin despite, the numerous lies of Fauci and the CDC? India has long put Ivermectin out in its pharmacies as an over the counter drug. Ivermectin has been rigorously, tested as a cure for Corona Virus on top of being approved by the CDC to treat parasites in humans and horses? The cream version is used on horses and the tablet form is for humans. UK doctors, Frontline doctors led by Simone Gold, board certified emergency doctor has deemed Ivermectin safe. Of course, these fine doctors were persecuted for going against the CDC and Big Pharma. Some fired from their jobs, others blackballed, so, why did China lockdown its cities and continued to drink the CDC and Fauci kool aid? To avoid angering the US politicians and the CDC? At the expense of millions of its own citizens?
 
mervyn said:
Fiasco? No.

If folks must die because of weak immunities, it is their time. God's plan.

On the other hand, it proves that COVID-ZERO policy works. Large population weren't in contact of the virus until the government lifted the restrictions. And the government picked the time when mortality rate of Omnicron is 0.3%. Otherwise it could be tens of millions death.

Alternatively they could wait, the next variant mortality rate could be lower but who knows.

Also I read their medical system for every 10k patients, there are only 3.4 beds available. Not because its underfunding, it is because their population is so huge.
More...

You missed the part where the Chinese government developed shit vaccines and did nothing about them for two years, that's why this is a fiasco. They had time and experience on their side but stuck to covid-zero as a cheap and convenient alternative.
 
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