The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

[gwb-trading]

even in the worst case scenario which is NYC ....
IFR still below 1. And there are no clusters like NYC happening any more.

Scenario five... the Data shows Infection Fatality Rate of .26
And that the lowest hanging fruit for this virus are either gone or better protected the final IFR is likely to be lower than .26 (if .26 was calculated properly using actual data.)



"In the CDC’s deadliest scenario, the infection fatality rate for the virus is about 0.8%. But in New York City, an estimated 0.86% to 0.93% of all people who got sick died, according to two preliminary analyses of available data, including a recent antibody survey that provided the best estimate yet of the total number of residents who have been infected. Those figures would put the death rate in the city — hit with the most lethal outbreak in the US, with at least 16,600 COVID-19 deaths to date — beyond the CDC’s worst-case scenario.

“Surely the worst-case scenario should at least be New York for the whole country,” said Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist at the University of Wollongong in Australia, who has been tracking infection fatality rates in New York City and elsewhere.

And Natalie Dean, a University of Florida biostatistician, said, “The point is that you [should] capture a range of scenarios based on what data we have available right now. With the data we have available right now, we can’t rule out something higher. A worst-case scenario needs to be a real worst-case scenario.”

Other estimates in hot spots outside the US are also higher than the agency’s deadliest estimate."

How nice -- data from scientists in Iran shows the IFR is 0.26%. While data from the U.S., Italy, Spain, and France show a much higher IFR.

 

[LS1Z28]

Even worse the yahoos then went on to compare this IFR of 0.3% to the CFR of the seasonal flu and come up with the wrong conclusion that COVID is only 3 times more deadly than the flu at most.

Sorry -- the IFR of the seasonal flu is between 0.012% to 0.021%. This still means that COVID is at least 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. Even with the planning study number of 0.3% from the CDC paper for scenario 5.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
The CDC estimates that 35.5 million U.S. citizens caught the flu during the 2018-19 flu season. This resulted in an estimated 34,200 deaths. That comes out to an infection fatality rate just below 0.1%. If you look at the same statistics from 2017-18, the IFR is just above 0.1%.

Based off these estimates, COVID-19 is around 3X deadlier than the seasonal flu. You have to take into account the fact that we don't have a vaccine for COVID-19 though. That makes it much deadlier, because it can move through the population with very little resistance.

 

[gwb-trading]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
The CDC estimates that 35.5 million U.S. citizens caught the flu during the 2018-19 flu season. This resulted in an estimated 34,200 deaths. That comes out to an infection fatality rate just below 0.1%. If you look at the same statistics from 2017-18, the IFR is just above 0.1%.

Based off these estimates, COVID-19 is around 3X deadlier than the seasonal flu. You have to take into account the fact that we don't have a vaccine for COVID-19 though. That makes it much deadlier, because it can move through the population with very little resistance.

Yes... and once again the CFR of the seasonal flu is being confused with the IFR -- -the CDC and other health organizations have lots of other information on how both are calucalted for the seasonal flu and their values. I posted all of this before. The problem with the seasonal flu is that even their CFR (which is given here as an IFR) is based on projections rather than proper case data.

 

[LS1Z28]

Yes... and once again the CFR of the seasonal flu is being confused with the IFR -- -the CDC and other health organizations have lots of other information on how both are calucalted for the seasonal flu and their values. I posted all of this before. The problem with the seasonal flu is that even their CFR (which is given here as an IFR) is based on projections rather than proper case data.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States, as well as, the impact of influenza vaccination on these numbers.

I understand the difference between CFR & IFR. The CDC estimates I quoted are based off of a mathematical model the CDC uses to estimate the total number of infections & deaths annually.

 

[jem]

wow you are a fearful piece of shit...

I brought up the worst case scenario from NYC discussed in the article you posted.

and scenario 5.


Do you even know Iran's data is in Scenario 5?

Nope... you don't do you.

How nice -- data from scientists in Iran shows the IFR is 0.26%. While data from the U.S., Italy, Spain, and France show a much higher IFR.

 

[gwb-trading]

wow you are a fearful piece of shit...

I brought up the worst case scenario from NYC discussed in the article you posted.

and scenario 5.


Do you even know Iran's data is in Scenario 5?

Nope... you don't do you.

Let's read it again... so you can avoid continuing to have reading comprehension problems. We will start with the NYC numbers compared to the worse case scenario of the 5 in the "Pandemic Planning" study":

"In the CDC’s deadliest scenario, the infection fatality rate for the virus is about 0.8%. But in New York City, an estimated 0.86% to 0.93% of all people who got sick died, according to two preliminary analyses of available data, including a recent antibody survey that provided the best estimate yet of the total number of residents who have been infected. Those figures would put the death rate in the city — hit with the most lethal outbreak in the US, with at least 16,600 COVID-19 deaths to date — beyond the CDC’s worst-case scenario."

You can read all the references to the Iranian scientists in the article as well.

 

[jem]

let's review why I have to tell you, you are so full of shit on just about every reply you make to me.
you are not correcting me... you are actually confirming what I wrote...

jem said:
even in the worst case scenario which is NYC ....
IFR still below 1. And there are no clusters like NYC happening any more.

Let's read it again... so you can avoid continuing to have reading comprehension problems. We will start with the NYC numbers compared to the worse case scenario of the 5 in the "Pandemic Planning" study":

"In the CDC’s deadliest scenario, the infection fatality rate for the virus is about 0.8%. But in New York City, an estimated 0.86% to 0.93% of all people who got sick died, according to two preliminary analyses of available data, including a recent antibody survey that provided the best estimate yet of the total number of residents who have been infected. Those figures would put the death rate in the city — hit with the most lethal outbreak in the US, with at least 16,600 COVID-19 deaths to date — beyond the CDC’s worst-case scenario."

You can read all the references to the Iranian scientists in the article as well.

 

[LS1Z28]

NYC is an anomaly. They're one of the few places in our country that forced nursing homes & assisted living facilities to take COVID-19 patients. That's why their fatality rates are higher than the rest of the country.

 

[gwb-trading]

NYC is an anomaly. They're one of the few places in our country that forced nursing homes & assisted living facilities to take COVID-19 patients. That's why their fatality rates are higher than the rest of the country.

So are all of Spain, Italy, and France anomalies as well...

"In Spain, a massive antibody survey of more than 60,000 people put its overall fatality rate at around 1.1% to 1.3%. In Italy, researchers estimate that 1.2% of all cases have resulted in death, and in France, 0.8%."

 

[LS1Z28]

So are all of Spain, Italy, and France anomalies as well...

"In Spain, a massive antibody survey of more than 60,000 people put its overall fatality rate at around 1.1% to 1.3%. In Italy, researchers estimate that 1.2% of all cases have resulted in death, and in France, 0.8%."

CFR by country:
US - 5.8%
Spain - 9.6%
Italy - 14.3%
France - 15.6%

These three European countries appear to be statistical anomalies, because their fatality rates are much higher than average. I haven't studied them closely enough to form an opinion on why their fatality rates are so high. I have read though that half of their deaths occurred in nursing homes & assisted living facilities. So they probably made the same fatal mistake that New York made by forcing these places to take COVID-19 patients.