Last I checked, he was still in the NYC and had only one wife
You can start looking at fairness of the term structure by looking at the relationship between realized and forward implied vol, for example
The calendar spread
- Thread starter TheBigShort
- Start date
You can start looking at fairness of the term structure by looking at the relationship between realized and forward implied vol, for example
@Secret Santa Glad to here he's doing well, however I prefer the other story. If we look at NVDA here. Front month IV is at 2 year lows. If we look at the relationship between IV and HV using the term structure. WE can see it is cheap BUT the SLOPE of the current term structure is relatively low vs historical. Im going to do a LONG NVDA short NQ straddle at the close today but I would really like to initiate a calendar, I just don't know how I should structure it. Maybe there is not even a term structure trade here.
- TSLA earnings would be a good example.
- The options were priced for about a 8% move - next earnings will be the same.
- Lets put TSLA at $300.00 before earnings.
- The trader is bullish and expects TSLA to go up after earnings and the weeks after.
- Earnings are on Wednesday.
- Sell the $320.00 calls that expire Friday.
- Buy the $320.00 calls that expire a few weeks later.
- The debit will be relative low for the long position.
- Ideally the short calls would expire worthless with TSLA around $320.00 after earnings.
- TSLA then continues up in the following weeks.
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Here's an atypical use for a calendar.
Suppose there's a looming binary event (clinical trials?). Large move expected. Direction unknown. IV is huge across all strikes. Sell the calendar.
Large IV contraction wins.
Big move wins.
No move and no IV contraction loses.
Delay of announcement loses.
Suppose there's a looming binary event (clinical trials?). Large move expected. Direction unknown. IV is huge across all strikes. Sell the calendar.
Large IV contraction wins.
Big move wins.
No move and no IV contraction loses.
Delay of announcement loses.
But if the front vol increases by more than square root time wouldn't it make sense to long the calendar?
Nice calendar trade today. MPC JULY 20/27. For .35. Earnings are on the 26th. A little bit of vol today causing the July 20 to push above the July 27.
Checking the quotes not much going on. Looks like a small increase in the July 27.
MPC at $77.88
- July 06 80.00 call ask $1.40
- July 13 80.00 call ask $1.70
- July 20 80.00 call ask $1.99
- July 27 80.00 call ask $2.52
- Aug 17 80.00 call ask $2.94
During the week of earnings you could sell the July 27 80.00 call and buy the August 17 80.00 call - if you are mildly bullish. Strikes depend on what MPC is trading at.
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Mpc expected earnings in July 26. The July 20/27 is .35. I got filled. When they confirm that calendar should go to $1. MPC usually implies a 4% earnings move which confirms our theory.